Weekend Winners Club

Aug 11 2017

Saratoga Saturday August 11- Coaches Corner and Grid

Pick some winners this week at Saratoga on 4stardave and Adirondack day. See the Grid posted free below to follow along and make your own picks.
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Download Saratoga Saturday Grid here now free and hassle free
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Saturday, August 12, 2017
Saratoga Race Track
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This is the pre-scratch synopsis analysis for Saratoga Saturday. See the Grid to see rationale.
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Race 1: Clm 20k
Status: Wide open
Picks: 7-6-5-1
Longshot specials: 7, 6, 3, 2
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Race 2: MSW2
Status: Pletcher
Picks: 2-9-8-4
Longshots: 1, 7
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Race 3: Alw 50k turf
Status: Lots of speed, not much value
Picks: 6-9-4-2-3
Longshots: none
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Race 4: Adirondack G2 2F
Status: Pletcher
Picks: 2-1-6-3-8
Longshots: 2 Stainless

Lynnbrook winner Pure Silver takes on stablemate Stainless in Adirondack G2

Lynnbrook winner Pure Silver takes on stablemate Stainless in Adirondack G2


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Race 5: Clm 25k turf
Status: Legit faves but not much speed
Picks: 4-9-10-2-11 if stays on turf
Longshots: 2, 11
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Race 6: MSW2 turf
Status: Low odds on legit contenders
Picks: 8-2-9-3-1 for turf
Longshots: 1 15-1
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Race 7: MSW2
Status: Pletcher
Picks: 9-2-1-4-7
Longshots: 4 , 7
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Race 8: Ocm 80k
Status: Open with beatable favorites
Picks: 3-4-2-5-6
Longshots: 6, 3
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Race 9: Ocm 62k
Status: Legit faves
Picks: 1-8-5-10-9
Longshots: 10, 5
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Race 10: 4stardave G1 turf
Status: No odds
Picks: 4-3-6-7
Longshots: none
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Race 11: Mdn 40k turf
Status: Legit favoritism but lots of choices
Picks: 8-2-12-4-1
Longshots: 1, 2, 4

For all the Grids, every major track and race, every day, click here.

Aug 07 2017

Mountaineer WV Derby Day Recap- Another Huge Day for the Grid

Monday, August 7, 2017
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It’s time again to look back on the previous weekend and see where we went wrong. We didn’t go wrong here, in fact, a lot went right as usual. If it didn’t for you, perhaps you need to get the Grid. And you should have got it beforehand.
Here’s how you get the Grid for every big track and race day.
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Let’s take a quick look at the late Pick 4 at Mountaineer. After a day in which the first 5 races were won by predictable top or high LP horses, at low odds, we had the Sen Robert “KKK” Byrd Memorial Stakes, in which once again, the top LP horse was favored at 2-1.
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What was different about this stakes was that the 2nd best LP contender, according to the Grid, won at 15-1, and the favorite oscillated again, finishing out of the money. The winner First Growth was also tied for top EP and 2nd in Power and Stamina. The 15-1 odds were too good to resist and I did WPS on that without hesitation.
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This was the breakthrough race of the day for us, netting over $2 grand on a 50 cent super that cost about $24. The public 2nd choice, which I never did quite figure out why was such, other than the trainer being Tom Amoss, also finished out of the money, paving the way for some great payouts.
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Next was Race 7, the WV Governors Stakes. At this point, you’d figure people learned their lesson about LP winning the day as it had in the previous 6 races. Nope, either that or they didn’t have the Grid. The winner was top LP in the Grid, at 8-1. He was also one of two S-type horses in a field with plenty of speed. We pointed this out in an article before the race last weekend.
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Here’s where it got even more interesting. Race 8, the West Virginia Derby G3 worth $750K. We made a point in the pre-race article about Game Over, who finished 2nd at 4-1. But in a race almost devoid of speed, the EP7 Colonelsdarktemper, top in EP in the Grid, won at 7-1. Didn’t see that coming? We did. One of 2 EP7’s with top EP, believe me, both were included in the verticals.
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Colonelsdarktemper with top Grid EP, holds on to front end to win WV Derby.

Colonelsdarktemper with top Grid EP, holds on to front end to win WV Derby.


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To finish up in Race 9, we didn’t need to go further than the top 2 favorites, an E4 with top EP and the S0 with top LP, to get the winner, the E4 at 3-2. Add it all up and what does it mean? A $1600 Pick 4 for the last 4 races, and not a very difficult one at that. The one that most people missed was the 15-1, which as we mentioned, you would have easily had using the Grid.
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Do you think we’re making this up? Check out the previous article, which focused on WV Derby day, and the Mountaineer Grid was provided for free. The final rankings as I quote them may slightly differ after scratches, but were accurate for post time.
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This is after we had a huge weekend at Monmouth, in the same type of fashion, with Grid LP kicking ass at big odds mostly across the board, with some nice EP winners scattered in between. The Monmouth Recap and WV Derby preview were covered here.

Aug 04 2017

WV Derby this weekend at Mountaineer; Last weekend HUGE for Grid

This week’s featured track is Mountaineer, hosting the West Virginia Derby, among several other exciting stakes races.
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Last week, if you didn’t have the Grid, you’re going to wish you had. I don’t want to say I told you so, but it happened. The Grid shredded it on all the big races at Saratoga and Monmouth last weekend. Check it out:
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Saturday’s late winners at Saratoga:
SAR 8: Vanderbilt G1: El Deal 5-2 Top EP No big deal, if you didn’t have it in Pick 4 you’re an idiot.
SAR9: Bowling Green G2: Hunter O’riley 16-1 Top Grid LP. Probably only had it with the Grid.
SAR10: Jim Dandy G2: Good Samaritan 8-1 Top LP. A killer with 2 overwhelming favorites.

Good Samaritan won Jim Dandy at 9-1

Good Samaritan won Jim Dandy at 9-1


SAR11: MSW3FM: Durable Goods 1-1 Top LP. A favorite to close out a huge Pick 4.
Pick 4 Paid….. $4667 for the $2 bet. OK we only had half of that, but you get the picture.
Don’t believe? Look at the unmolested Saratoga Grid from last weekend. Doesn’t even include scratches.
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Monmouth late winners on Haskell Stakes day:
MON9 Alw5000: Wind Tartare 9-5 fav, top Grid Power, blah blah who cares
MON10 Molly Pitcher G3: Money’soncharlotte 9-1, top LP…. Starting to care, right?
MON11 Matchmaker G3: Wekeela 2-1 non favorite, top Grid LP. No big deal, should have had it, right?
MON12 Haskell G1: Girvin 9-1, top LP in Grid. People forgot he lost last race in a 5 minute photo finish.
Late Pick 4: $1343 for the $1 bet. Yes we had it.
Still trouble believing? Check out the Monmouth Grid form last Sunday, which all our subscribers had.
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So, the point of this is not to say I told you so, but rather that you could have easily won over $3000 last weekend, just betting 2 late Pick 4’s, using the Grid. Why didn’t you use it? Probably, because you didn’t have it, because it’s not some over-marketed bullshit that doesn’t work. It’s the Real Deal. We provide numbers that work here.
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So what is going on this weekend? Glad you asked. Mountaineer has a slew of stakes races including the featured WV Derby G3. Perhaps people will forget that Patch 3-1 finished 3rd in the Belmont Stakes.
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But more likely, they will not recall that Game Over, 12-1, registered the highest PF of this batch in finishing a decent 5th to a batch of great 3yo’s in the Ohio Derby. In his 3rd lifetime race, he finished only 6L behind Irap, Girvin, and Untrapped.
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Also of note at Mountaineer:
Race 6: 75k Senator Byrd Memorial Stakes: Woodland Walk is listed at 10-1 ML, and has the top PF and Top LP in the Grid. Those odds can only come down however.
Race 5: 75k WV President’s Cup: (I didn’t know WV had its own president, but let’s move on): Indian Paint, listed at 30-1 ML, has top EP in the Grid. This is a very dangerous angle, especially when it’s first on turf. She was tried first on turf last outing, which didn’t happen because the race went off turf at Delaware, but still won by 11 lengths. The odds will definitely come down here, and the oddsmaker could be fired as well.
Race 3: Sec of State Stakes: Yes WV has its own Secretary of State also: Sneaking under the oddsmaker radar and possibly the public’s also, is Ivy Bell at 8-1, top LP and highest PF overall, occurring last race out. Throw it down.
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No excuses for you this weekend. We’re giving you Mountaineer Saturday Grid for free. You don’t even need to enter any info, just grab and go!
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Saratoga also has a big day, obviously, as they always do on the weekend, if not every day. The Test G1 will sample 3yo fillies at 7 furlongs. The Whitney G1 will see if anyone in the field can catch Gun Runner besides Arrogate, who’s not running in this one.

Whatever happens, good luck.
If you come to your senses and decide to start using the Grid, use the link here to subscribe.

Jul 13 2017

Irap and Untrapped face off again in Indiana Derby; Superfilly Songbird in Delaware Handicap

This weekend racing abounds across the states with plenty of stakes racing including some futurities and several Derbies. Weekend stars include Irap and Untrapped of Derby debacle notoriety, but who are both on the comeback trail. Songbird will be racing as well, and a new star may be born in one of the weekend futurities. West Coast and Klimt look to rejuvenate their 3yo careers.
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***** This summer’s spectacular deal: 1 month free included with any WWC subscription! That means 3 months for the price of 2, 2 for 1, or however you want to do it! More detail at bottom…*****
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Stakes racing begins on Saturday early at Belmont with a 100k listed stakes for 2yo’s going 6f. The field of 6 has Carlos Martin’s Morning Breez a slight ML favorite over Pletcher’s Analyze the Odds. Pletcher also has What a Catch, giving him 1/3 of the field, a 90% probability of winning, and 100% probability of finishing at least 2nd.
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Delaware has what is their biggest race day of the year, with 4 stakes races including the Kent G3 and the Delaware Handicap G1. The $200k Kent is for 3yo’s going 9f on the turf. Being turf horses, most of them you would not have heard of from the Kentucky Derby trail, except for Master Plan, the 2nd alternate that didn’t get in. He’s the 2nd ML choice after Crhistophe Clement’s Frostmourne, winner of the G2 Penn Mile. Master Plan was an OBS champ before shipping to Meydan to finish 3rd in the UAE Derby. A strange Derby trail for sure. Since then he’s finished 5th in the Peter Pan and now appears on turf. Todd will figure him out soon. The horse who finished 4th in the OBS champ race, Adonis Creed, will also be participating.
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One of the biggest races of the year for fillies and mares is the G1 Delaware Handicap worth $750k for females 3 and up. 5 of them will take shot at superfilly Songbird at 1-5, who was all lined up to win the Kentucky Oaks last year before skipping it. After that, she went on to dominate again until her 2nd place finish in the Breeders Cup Distaff, her first and only loss. So far the 4yo has won 13 races including 8 G1’s and 3 other graded stakes. Going 10f is probably the best chance to beat her front running style, but none of the competition has ever been competition for Songbird yet.
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Indiana Grand is having their big race night of the year, hosting 6 stakes races highlighted by the G3 -Indiana Oaks and the $500k G3 Indiana Derby. To show you the quality of competition in the Oaks, the 7-5 ML favorite is Mopotism, who finished 10th in the Kentucky Oaks at 45-1. Also from the Oaks will be 8-1 Wicked Luck who finished 13th of 14 at 38-1.
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The half million dollar Indiana Derby will have a more serious field, featuring Kentucky Derby failures that came out of the debacle in good shape. Favored Irap at 8-5 ML won the Ohio Derby G3 3 weeks ago, beating favored Girvin in a very close photo finish that took a while to decode. Girvin won’t be here, but 3rd place Ohio finisher Untrapped is at 6-1 ML as the 2nd choice. Others that were on the Derby trail that will be competing here are Wild Shot and Hollywood Handsome.
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Irap, forefront, eventually edged past Girvin in a long and valiant stretch run in the 2017 Ohio Derby

Irap, forefront, eventually edged past Girvin in a long and valiant stretch run in the 2017 Ohio Derby


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Little Los Alamitos is also having a Derby on Saturday so that the other west coast colts don’t miss out on the G3 stakes action for $200k. Favored is Baffert’s West Coast, who came onto the scene late with a Lexington Stakes 2nd place finish. 2nd choice Klimt had early Derby hopes and points after a 2nd place finish in the Frontrunner stakes but hasn’t done much since. Over all, there are 8 set for the field, with Doug O’neill stacking the deck with 3 long shots. Term of Art is listed at 15-1 but will likely come down to single digits. He was in the WWC top 20 as late as the first week of April.
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There are also some nice stakes races around the nation at smaller time tracks such as Laurel, Monmouth, Northlands, Prairie, and Woodbine. If you subscribe to the Weekend Winners Club, you get the Grid for all these great races included in your membership.
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And this week we’re offering the deal of the year: 1 month of the Grid free! That is correct! When you sign up for either the 1 month, 2 month, 3 month or more package, you get 1 bonus month free!!
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This will easily get you thru all of the summer’s great racing. That includes the legendary Saratoga Meet which begins next week with the Lake George and Schuylerville Stakes and graduating to the Diana G1 on Saturday, and American Oaks on Sunday. The meet runs until early September and you don’t want to miss it! Same goes for the incredible Del Mar summer meeting.

Whatever you decide to do, Good Luck!
Dalton
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Jun 24 2017

2017 Early Breeders Cup Classic Odds- Wynn

Early look at the odds for the 2017 Breeders Cup Classic at Del Mar, from Wynn sportsbook about June 19, 2017.
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Early Breeders Cup Classic Odds, June 2017

Early Breeders Cup Classic Odds, June 2017


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See anything you like? Irish War Cry and Classic Empire were my top 3 year olds coming into the year, and they still are. I heard Empire is down to 12-1. Can I really get Cry at 45-1? If so I might have to make a trip to Vegas just for that. Between the two of them, they could pay for the trip several months later.
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Of course, a lot hinges on whether Arrogate runs in the Classic again. All signs are go right now, but if anything goes wrong at all, they won’t risk the breeding capacity of a Travers and BC Classic winner. At those odds, he’s not worth a bet at all. Those are the same odds you’ll get on race day. So what you want to do is get a good bargain this early, not the favorite.
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And we’re not hoping that anything bad happens to the horse, but like he did last year, one of these 3yo’s could start running off the charts later on this year, and I’ve already mentioned one of them that still seems to be improving. Although he does turn out a bad race after every good one, we can always hope he puts out a stinker the race before Breeders Cup and get good odds on race day as well.

Jun 12 2017

Belmont Stakes 2017: WTF Just Happened? Explained Here.

Belmont Stakes 2017 Recap and Analysis
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Monday, June 12, 2017
Belmont Park
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There are plenty of Monday morning armchair quarterbacks going around after the Belmont stakes as is usual for any Triple Crown race. In our final article analyzing the Belmont Stakes beforehand, we delineated how Irish War Cry would take control in the stretch after Meantime set the pace, and then be caught in deep stretch by… Patch.
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It was probably as good an analysis as any, except that I allowed my hatred of Tapwrit and all things Tapit to get in the way of a completely statistical and logical discussion. Tapwrit so far had been another overhyped, overpriced, overrated colt from Tapit who did nothing but disappoint his backers in his two biggest career races, the Blue Grass and Kentucky Derby. It should be noted that he still hasn’t earned his auction price yet but the Belmont got him a lot closer.
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Tapwrit gets first big win in Belmont over Irish War Cry and Patch

Tapwrit gets first big win in Belmont over Irish War Cry and Patch


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He was however, bred to win a Triple Crown race, as most expensive colts are nowadays, and that was proven by his lofty $1.2 million price at the Fasig Tipton auction. Nobody pays that money for a horse because they want to win the Tampa Bay Derby and finish off the chart in everything that follows. However, that’s just what he had done so far, and I held it against Todd and his connections personally.
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What I did know was how the race would play out: Irish War Cry would be near the lead and get caught in the stretch. The question was WHO would be the one to catch him, and that field boiled down to Tapwrit, Gormley, J Boys Echo, and Patch. With the lack of any real speed besides Cry and Meantime, they would be the only ones close enough with the class and pedigree to catch him.
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Gormley’s lack of beating anyone significant in his career has always made me skeptical, but he has a good pedigree and would be close enough to get in the superfecta, which he did. J Boys Echo is apparently still a 1-race wonder, but in that race he did beat Preakness champion Cloud Computing. In the Blue Grass and Derby he had excuses, getting bounced around early, but with 2 in a row ruled him out like I did with Tapwrit.
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That left me with Patch, a horse with a great Triple Crown pedigree, which we also covered in a Belmont article last week. His sire was Union Rags, a Belmont winner, and the mother was WindyIndy, who was born of Belmont winner AP Indy. You can’t get much better than that for the Belmont Stakes. And Patch has only disappointed in the Kentucky Derby like many others, getting bounced around early in the big field. Before that, he placed 2nd in the Louisiana Derby in his 3rd lifetime race. Lots of upside.
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Going back to the Belmont Grid, which we provided earlier in the week for free on the site, if you were paying attention, the Patch pick was almost unsubstantiated. He did have the 4th best PF overall, the 95 he earned in breaking his maiden before the Louisiana Derby, and that was only 4 points short of the top mark set by Meantime in the Peter Pan, which he lost.
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Patch’s power rating was also only 4 points off the top ranked Irish War Cry, joining a cluster of horses from 93-97 in power. But we were still going out on a limb for him as the top pick. A more logical pick according to the Grid would have been Gormley, 2nd in power and speed and early pace. J Boys Echo would also work as 3rd in stamina and 2nd in LP rating. Even Tapwrit would have been a more solid pick, 4th in stamina and just missing the top 5 in power.
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Remember, I was throwing out all the late pack runners because of the lack of speed in the race, which was covered in the Belmont pace article last week. This strategy and analysis did pay off, as even great closer Lookin at Lee (7th )and surprise Preakness placer Senior Investment (5th) failed to hit the top 4. The other plodders finished 10th and 11th out of 11.
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The other thing we did was throw out the horses that didn’t have the class. The two that weren’t in the 90 and up power group were throwouts, which included plodder Hollywood Handsome, who was a double throwout and finished last. After the toss outs we were left with a field of 6 to choose from, which was good enough for an easy dime super box that paid $224.
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The result didn’t really surprise me at all, and shouldn’t have surprised anyone really. However, Tapwrit was the first one out of the top position of my more aggressive exotic wagers, because of my aforementioned spite for his recent disappointments.
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I didn’t think Gormley would win because of his lack of ever beating any graded stakes winners, and nor did I think Meantime would go gate to wire. So that left me with J Boys Echo, Irish War Cry, and Patch as my key horses at the top of my super. I ended up with a dollar tri payout which wasn’t that great, and the dime super.
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Using the Grid, and my analysis beforehand to ensure that Patch was in your bets for example, and the tossouts based on pace and class, anyone could have won at least an exacta, trifecta, and dime super. They were as easy as possible. And a lesson learned, one that I occasionally have to relearn: don’t throw out a horse based on spite.

Jun 10 2017

Belmont Stakes Final Picks: Who can beat Irish War Cry?

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Saturday, June 10
Belmont Park
Elmont, NY
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The final picks are in for the Belmont Stakes, finally. It’s been a topsy turvy work with a lot of turmoil, including not just 1 of my Belmont favorites scratching or defecting, but 2 of them this time. Classic Empire, who would have been the prohibitive favorite, was the first out, withdrawing early in the week with a hoof abscess.
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Everything looked fine from thereon out, until my personal wise guy value longshot pick Epicharis came up lame in front leg on Wednesday night. They treated him and planned on racing him anyway, after shipping from across the planet. But alas, it would probably be foolish and they scratched today.
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This leaves us even with less speed than before, as both of these horses were early runners and there are only 4 early runners left. However, the 2 speediest horses are still there. Meantime is an E8 and will assume the early lead or at least be on the pace, barring any extreme abnormalities, with EP7h Irish War Cry the other that will be pressing the pace or assuming the lead if Meantime doesn’t for some reason.
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Twisted Tom and Gormley will be in chase close up to the pace, and then there may be a gap before we reach Patch and J Boys Echo in some kind of mid-pack formation, of which Tapwrit will likely be rounding out the back of. Towards the rear will be the rest of the late runners, plodders, and lollygaggers in some type of formation.
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After Meantime and Irish War Cry run 1-2 for most of the way, giving the longshot Meantime’s backers reason to stand up and start having orgasms before the 2 minute mark, Irish War Cry takes the lead going into the stretch. As it looks like he will pull away from everyone else like he does from Meantime, he does not.
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In the stretch, it becomes a battle of attrition as usual in the Belmont Stakes, with those having the pedigree for top-speed staying power at this distance gaining. Patch gains a few feet with every stride and noses up in the end over Irish War Cry.
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Patch, endearing heartbreaker of the Derby, sets his eye on the Belmont Stakes

Patch, endearing heartbreaker of the Derby, sets his eye on the Belmont Stakes


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Like his sire Union Rags, Patch wins the Belmont. Like his sire, Irish War Cry loses a close Belmont, but unlike his sire, doesn’t win a single Triple Crown race. Irish War Cry goes on to win 3yo horse of the year after winning 2/3 of the Haskell, Travers, and Breeders Cup Classic, but that’s for later.
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J Boys Echo makes a heroic effort to show up late, as does Lookin at Lee as usual, and Multiplier, to round out the top 5. It’s uncertain if Meantime hangs on for a piece of the pie but he could. Gormley may also be the one that holds on for some of the purse, as he is due for a big race again.
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Crapwrit will take a bunch of people’s hard-earned money as usual, and suck as usual. Senior Investment will bounce after his best career race. Sorry, Channing.
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Complete throwouts that don’t belong in the race: Twisted Tom and Hollywood Handsome. Sorry, Florent and Javier, but you will not be anywhere near the top 5.
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What about Mike Smith and Baffert winning every dirt race so far? That’s true, but they also had the best horse and the favorite in each race. This race, not so much. But I AM giving Meantime a chance to finish in the money.
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Here’s how I’ll rank them for betting purposes for the exotics.
Patch
Irish War Cry
J Boys Echo
Meantime
Lookin at Lee
Multiplier
Gormley
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Yes, the 1 eyed bandit that captured everyone’s hearts then broke them in the semi-muddy surface at Churchill Downs the first Saturday

Jun 07 2017

Belmont Stakes 2017 Official Post Positions and Morning Line Odds

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Wednesday, June 7
Belmont Park
Elmont, NY
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This morning, the post positions were drawn for the official Belmont Stakes field and morning line odds were assigned.
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Get full Grid for Belmont Saturday Here
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The big news of the day is that Classic Empire is out and thus drew no post. The promising Preakness runner-up and 2yo champ has a hoof abscess and will heal up for later summer racing.
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Here are the official post positions and odds, with running styles added for the 2017 Belmont Stakes:

1 Twisted Tom 20-1 EP6
2 Tapwrit 6-1 P2
3 Gormley 8-1 EP5
4 J Boys Echo 15-1 P2
5 Hollywood Handsome 30-1 S1
6 Lookin At Lee 5-1 S0
7 Irish War Cry 7-2 EP7
8 Senior Investment 12-1 S0
9 Meantime 15-1 E8
10 Multiplier 15-1 S1
11 Epicharis 4-1 EP7
12 Patch 12-1 P3

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Wood champion Irish War Cry is default favorite in Belmont

Wood champion Irish War Cry is default favorite in Belmont

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Here is what the entire field looks like with PF’s and other factors, according to the Grid:

2017 Belmont Grid PP's with Morning Line Odds

2017 Belmont Grid PP’s with Morning Line Odds


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Download Belmont Stakes PDF Grid Here FREE
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We’ll follow up later on today with some pace analysis and some other info but this should get you started.

Jun 05 2017

Belmont Stakes Early Probables and Grid PP’s

Monday, June 5
Elmont, NY
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Obtain Full Belmont Stakes Day June 10 Grid PP’s Here
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It’s that time again, when Belmont Stakes tries to sneak up on us after a few weeks without any Triple Crown madness. The fact that no Triple Crown is at stakes makes this an even better betting race for bettors.
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Contenders updated with official ML odds and post positions:
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2017 Belmont Grid PP's with Morning Line Odds

2017 Belmont Grid PP’s with Morning Line Odds


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Download free Belmont Stakes Grid here to follow along
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Note that these odds are not official, and the assigned quirin speed points are from this site only, as we calculated them manually. Any other speed designations you see elsewhere are probably inaccurate because they don’t account for the early shuffling around in a 20 horse Derby field, which did not match the usual recent career running style for some of these horses.
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So there is some speed in the race, but only 1 true frontrunner: Meantime. Classic Empire, Irish War Cry and Epicharis also tend towards a front end run but usually don’t take the lead early.
We’ll do more on pace analysis in a later article, but this will get you started.

Jun 05 2017

Belmont Stakes 2017 Contender and Sire Analysis

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Monday, June 5
Elmont, NY
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Obtain Full Belmont Stakes Day June 10 Grid PP’s Here
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Probably Belmont Stakes Field:

1 Classic Empire 2-1
2 Epicharis 12-1
3 Gormley 12-1
4 Hollywood Handsome 30-1
5 Irish War Cry 8-1
6 J Boys Echo 20-1
7 Lookin At Lee 6-1
8 Meantime 28-1
9 Multiplier 22-1
10 Patch 20-1
11 Senior Investment 12-1
12 Tapwrit 8-1
13 Twisted Tom 25-1

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There were some nice sire analyses previously that hopefully helped you win some bets on the Derby and Preakness, including the now famous Kentucky Derby Contender Sire analysis, where 4 of the top 5 we listed were in the Derby superfecta.
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This week of course, we’ll look at the sire and sireline analysis in a similar relevant way for the Belmont stakes. You don’t need to like it or agree with the opinion portion, but the facts speak for themselves.
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Irish War Cry (10th Ky Derby): Curlin (Smart Strike, RAN) is one of the most successful young sires in North America and commands a heavy stud fee. The reason is that he is already from a successful sire line, and proved his worth on the track. He finished 3rd in Kentucky Derby, 1st in Preakness, and 2nd at Belmont in his Triple Crown series, won the BC Classic and other Grade 1 races. He was horse of the year as a 3yo and older male, and is the quintessential Triple Crown sire.

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Note: The RAN sireline is not only responsible for 14 of the last 25 Kentucky Derby and Preakness champions, including both of this year’s, but has fared even better in the Belmont, with 15 of the last 24. Despite the recent success of AP Indy’s offspring winning 2 of the last 3, he’s overdue again this year. Since 1995, the RAN line has not lost 2 consecutive Belmont Stakes, and this is the only current stretch where it has not won at least 3 of the last 5. (DUE)
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Raise a Native, founder of sireline with 20 Kentucky Derby , 19 Preakness, and 18 Belmont Champions

Raise a Native, founder of sireline with 20 Kentucky Derby , 19 Preakness, and 18 Belmont Champions


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Classic Empire (2nd Preakness): Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker, RAN) was all set to follow in his father’s footsteps, winning the Santa Anita Derby, then finishing a disappointing 2nd to long shot Mine that Bird in the Kentucky Derby. However, he struggled in the Preakness and was retired 2 months later. Grandsire Empire Maker was another all time Triple Crown great, finishing 2nd in the Derby to the horse he had beat in the Wood, then skipping the Preakness and winning the Belmont.
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Lookin at Lee (4th Preakness): Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike, RAN) was a solid 6th in the Kentucky Derby, and turned the tables to win the Preakness. He skipped the Belmont and went on to win the Haskell and Indiana Derby, and retired before the BC Classic. However, he still won 3yo American horse of the year honors, to go along with his 2yo champion award.
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Patch (14th Kentucky Derby): Union Rags (Dixie Union, ND) finished 7th in the Kentucky Derby, then redeemed himself by winning the Belmont Stakes after the defection of I’ll Have Another. So if you’re looking for a horse with a legit Belmont Stakes only sire, this is it.
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Epicharis (2nd UAE Derby): Gold Allure (Sunday Silence, Turn To) had a nice career in Japan, finishing 5th in the Japan Derby and winning 4 G1 events before retiring at age 4. In case you’re new to this sport, Sunday Silence was a champion 3yo after winning the Derby and Preakness, and finishing 2nd in the Belmont after kicking his trainer in the head the day before.

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Meantime (2nd Peter Pan): Shackleford (Forestry, Storm Cat) was an excellent 3yo frontrunner in both sprint and route races. He came up a head short in the Florida Derby, then a solid 4th in the Kentucky Derby, then finally held on the entire way for the Preakness win. The Belmont was a bit too far for his pedigree but he did finish a solid 5th. Shackleford became the first and only horse from the Storm Cat sireline to ever win a Triple Crown race in 2011. They have a poor record in the Belmont Stakes.
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Twisted Tom (1st Federico Tesio): Creative Cause (Giant’s Causeway, Storm Cat) was another legit Storm Cat contender that never won a Triple Crown. He did respectably finish 5th in the Ky Derby and 3rd in the Preakness before retiring without ever racing again. Before that he won 3 graded stakes. Giant’s Causeway was of course a great European champion who is best remembered in the US for losing the Breeders Cup Classic by a nose to the only 2 time BCC Champion Tiznow. He was also the leading North American sire 2 years in a row.
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Gormley (9th Kentucky Derby): Malibu Moon (AP Indy, BR) is a top 5 North American sire, who finally proved he was a direct descendant of AP Indy by spawning Kentucky Derby champion Orb a few years ago. He did nothing on the race track and was retired early, however clearly still has some great TC genes.
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J Boys Echo (15th Ky Derby): Mineshaft (AP Indy, BR) is the latest great one in the Bold Ruler sireline that included Seattle Slew and AP Indy. Mineshaft got a late start in US racing after transferring from Great Britain, and was busy breaking his maiden while others were running in TC races. In his 4 year old season he dominated and won US horse of the year and champion older male honors.
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Tapwrit (6th Ky Derby): Tapit (Pulpit, API) was one of the most overrated TC horses ever, being hyped up greatly after winning the Wood, before finishing 9th in the Derby. He has been a successful sire thus far, with his overhyped Tapwrit being the most expensive auctioned colt in the field at $1.2 million.
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Senior Investment (3rd Preakness): Discreetly Mine (Mineshaft, AP Indy) was pointed to the Triple Crown after winning the Risen Star but later returned to win a couple sprint stakes and retired as a 3yo. Mineshaft got a late start in US racing after transferring from Great Britain, and was busy breaking his maiden while others were running in TC races. In his 4 year old season he dominated and won US horse of the year and champion older male honors.
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Multiplier (6th Preakness): The Factor (War Front, ND) looked like he would be a factor in the Triple Crown series of 2011 after winning the Rebel Stakes. However, after a 7th place finish in the Arkansas, he took the summer off and came back to win 3 G1 races that year and the next, all of which were at 7f, and a couple of good 2nd place finishes in G1s. So far, no great Triple Crown offspring from him and no TC winners from War Front yet either.
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Hollywood Handsome (1st, ALW 51k): Tapizar (Tapit, API) was another in the long list of overrated horses coming from the overhyped Tapit. It looked like he would become part of the Triple Crown picture after winning the Sham, but only mustered 5th in the RB Lewis and didn’t race again until October. He did go on to win 3 more stakes races, most importantly the BC Dirt Mile as a 4yo.
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