Weekend Winners Club

Hutcheson Stakes 7f Grade 2 Gulfstream 2-20

Race summary:
Wildcat Frankie, the fastest horse in the race, set off to a fast pace as usual, running the quarter in 22.37 with favorite D’Funnybone rating nicely in 3rd. The favorite then moved up to challenge the lead as the half expired in 45.10. At the same time, 2nd choice A Little Warm began passing rivals to move into 3rd.
D’Funnybone made the lead on the outside by the time they came out of the far turn, and was pursued vigorously by A Little Warm at the 6f mark in 1.09.18. Neither horse looked back as they both charged hard to the finish, with the favorite holding a one length lead as the Dutrow brothers swept 1st and 2nd.

Analysis:
It seems to me that Anthony needs to try A Little Warm at route distance soon, and Richard should also retry D’Funnybone at longer races, but obviously on dirt, not on synthetic where he failed miserably. Another furlong shouldn’t be too much to ask either of these speedy colts. The time to do that will be in their next race, to determine if there’s any chance of running for the roses.

Fountain of Youth 9f Grade 2 Gulfstream 2-20

Race summary:
Lost Aptitude was quick to take the lead while Buddy’s Saint got jostled around on the rail early. Eskendeyera tracked the leader in 23.72 with Jackson Bend another couple lengths back on the outside in 4th, behind Positive Split. Jackson Bend moved into 3rd with the half in 47.92. Shortly thereafter, Eskendereya took the lead and was pursued heavily by Jackson Bend in 1.12.41.
By the mile (1.36.54) mark, Eskendereya was running away with it, and nobody could catch him. He won by about 8 lengths over Jackson Bend, who barely held off a late charge by Aikenite, but none were in the same league as Pletcher’s top Derby contender, who completed the 9th furlong in 1.48.87.

Analysis:
Obviously, the pace wasn’t very challenging for Eskendereya (Giant’s Causeway), who ran within a length of the lead before taking over. But he did draw away impressively, leaving all others in the dust.
I’d like to make excuses for Jackson Bend, who entered the weekend ranked as my top 3yo, but he doesn’t really have any. The only thing that could have gone wrong would be Rose rating him too hard, not allowing him to use his natural speed, and draining his energy with the struggle.
It’s hard to tell from watching if that was the case, but it is possible. It did seem like he would have been up closer to the lead with that kind of marginal pace, and he did race in the 2-3 path, but alas he had nothing in the stretch, a concern for a horse that Zito wants to go another furlong in May.
Pleasant Prince and Ice Box, Zito’s other horse in the race, both made strong late moves, which would have mattered if all they had to catch was Jackson’s Bend, but again, no match for the winner.
Buddy’s Saint finished well out of it but came out of the race OK. He has a good excuse for this one and we expect to see him in another Derby prep next month.

Southwest Stakes 8F Grade 3 Oaklawn 2-20

Race summary:
Conveyance was slow out of the gate but quickly took the lead while others chased him around the track in splits of 22.78, 46.25, and 1.10.67, then won in 1.36.94 for the mile. That’s about it.
Dublin and Cardiff Giant, 8th and 5th in the early going, both made nice late runs, with Dublin almost catching the winner at the wire for a strong 2nd and Cardiff in 3rd. Mission Impazible ran around in 4th and delivered no late kick.

Analysis:
Baffert’s Conveyance clearly didn’t have any problems switching to real dirt, and ran the race as if it were a sprint. The fractions were honest but not hard enough to do in the speedball. The Indian Charlie colt could well be this year’s Indian Charlie and sprint to a 3rd place finish in the Derby. He’s won every race asked of him, and has a lot of speed, but could have some distance limitations.
Dublin delivered his best performance since the Hopeful in Sept, and Lukas had to be happy to see him gaining down the stretch after a miserable outing at Churchill in November when he finished 10 lengths back. It could be that the colt doesn’t like Churchill, or that he needed a break, or that he’s put on some weight since then, or some combination of the above, but he will run for the roses in May.
Cardiff Giant ran well late but hung up in the stretch as usual, which is not what you want to see at only a mile. I doubt he will make it much further effectively. Dryfly was near the lead for 6f then finished 9th of 10 in a disappointing run for Calvin Borel and Lynn Whiting.

Risen Star 8.5f Grade 2 Fair Grounds 2-20

Race Summary:
Discreetly Mine broke on top with Tempted to Tapit and Cardiff Giant right behind him. He then proceeded to set embarrassing fractions of 24.60 and 48.75, 1.13.44. The top three never changed, as the race was complete in 1.44.88.
Drosselmeyer, Stay Put, and Ron the Greek ran well late for 4th, 5th 6th, but it was too little too late.

Analysis:
This race was an embarrassment to the sport. Whenever the top 3 speed horses finish 1-2-3 in that order, with marginal fractions like that in a Grade 2 route, it really doesn’t prove much of anything, except that they got away with lollygagging around on the lead.
The fact is that they were the only speed horses in the race. I’d like to see any of those three tested by the fractions such as those in the Southwest and see where they end up.
Pletcher may have stamped another Derby ticket, and give him credit for placing his horse, but he got away with this one. I doubt he’ll see fractions that slow in another prep race. I’m equally unimpressed by the other two.
Drosselmeyer ran reasonably well late but he was close to the pace to begin with, like the top 3.
The horses that look the best coming out of this are Stay Put and Ron the Greek. Ron was dead last of 12 early but closed well finishing 6th for Tom Amoss. Stay Put closed from 10th to 5th on the slow pace giving Steven Margolis a solid contender.
Ron the Greek is still the best closer in this field, but he will likely need to finish in the money in at least one more prep to make the Derby field. That combined with his G3 win at FG in Jan, where he closed from 16 lengths back to win at a mile, would be enough to get him in.
Stay Put, on the other hand, doesn’t have any graded earnings. Expect Margolis to get more serious next time about staying close enough to the lead to not be out of it if the pace dawdles. You obviously can’t count on the pace scenario setting up well for your closer.
As for the top three, they still have much to prove if they want to be serious contenders in a Triple Crown race. I like Stay Put to continue forward to a strong Derby prep next out. Ron the Greek has the AP Indy curse so he won’t win the Derby but he could win his next prep, and the Belmont.

El Camino Real Derby 9f Grade 3 Golden Gate 2-20

Race Summary:
Ranger Heartley took the early lead as usual, tracked by the normally late-running Thomas Baines and Very Fair in 24.43. Ranger was wearing blinkers but tugging hard on the lead for a 49.56 half, then Connemara started his run from the rear at 1.13.60.
Coming into the stretch, Very Fair took a slight and brief lead over Thomas Baines and Ranger Heartley while Connemar was surging to the lead on the outside. Haimish Hy (my longshot special of the race) was flying late down the stretch for a strong 2nd. Mile 1.38.68, Finish 1.51.26.

Analysis
Pletcher wins again. Nobody is surprised about that. The real surprise is that Ranger Heartley and Thomas Baines finished so badly after running 1 and 3 in the Cal Derby, only half a furlong shorter, with a similar pace. What we do know is that Ranger can only win on the front end, and does tend to fade even when he controls the pace.
Haimish Hy may have surprised some people with his great late move to finish 2nd. He was in 8th of 9 after 6f but put on the rockets down the stretch, and looks like he wants to go another furlong. I’m not sure this colt was even an early Derby nominee, but watch out for him.
Connemara is the best of this group and certainly was impressive in only his 4th career start. This race doesn’t offer the stiffest competition as far as Derby preps, but Todd again picked a perfect spot for him to improve and get graded earnings, and it worked out exactly as planned.

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