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Weekend Winners Club

Nov 04 2011

Breeders Cup Day 1 Preview, Analysis, and Long Shot Specials

Juvenile Sprint: Favorite Secret Circle will be singled on my ticket.

Juvenile Filly Turf: Sure, the two favorites are legit and have good numbers. However, there isn’t much speed in this race, and the fastest 2 fillies are 8-1 and 10-1 and ML, including Sweet Cat and the #4 switching from dirt, who is actually the best speed in the race by a lot. The turf should be somewhat soft after rain on Thursday and that speed could hold well.

Filly and Mare Sprint: Favorite Turbulent Descent looks like she’s all over this one, but once again, not a lot of speed for a sprint. It’s a longer sprint, but speed could still hold up. The top early runner is Golden Mystery at 20-1, and the next best speed is a midpack runner Pomeroy’s Pistol at 6-1, who it would be shocking to not find in the trifecta. Other midpack runners with a good shot will be Tamarind Hall and Musical Romance, both 20-1. Champagne D’oro cutting back to sprint distance could be just what the doctor ordered.

Juvenile Filly (dirt): Pay no attention to the euros in this, they suck at shorter dirt distances. Favorite would have to run her worst career race to not finish 1st, but there’s a lot of speed in this race, and the top late runner is not the 2nd ML choice, but 12-1 Northern Passion. The McPeek filly switching to dirt is very interesting at 30-1.

Filly and Mare Turf: First of all the favorite is legit, and an American filly could actually win this, since Goldikova is committed to beating the boys again. However, the euro contingent of Nahrain, Announce, and Misty For Me, will be highly contentious and the last one is 10-1 with a perfect running style for this field. The lack of speed calls for Misty and the top 2 American speed horses, Dubawi and 30-1 Dynaslew to possibly factor in.

Ladies Classic (Distaff): Plum Pretty carries her speed well but the track should be almost fully dried out by this time. Top LP Ultra Blend offers 8-1 ML, and Super Espresso 20-1 could make noise late. Midpackers Royal Delta and Miss Match should be there to pick up pieces if the frontrunners fail, and Pachattack is very interesting at this down and distance.

To get the Grid go to http://www.horseracebetwin.com/breeders.htm

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