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Weekend Winners Club

Nov 04 2011

Breeders Cup Day 2 Preview, Analysis, and Long Shot Specials

Starting with the last race, the Classic is what everyone wants to know about. Last year, there were 6 true late runners in the Classic (P or S 0-3), and the 5 of them with the best LP and Stamina in the Grid ran 1st thru 5th, including 2 around 30-1, as all early speed folded.

The horse number one in LP and stamina won at 5-1, and the 2nd place horse was t1 in LP also and t2 in stamina. Why bring this up? This year, the top LP and stam horse is Flat Out 6-1 ML, but the other true late runners, 4 of them, are all 30-1 ML. If this year’s race repeats, that’s an even bigger super high five, but don’t count on an exact repeat. Havre de Grace and or Stay Thirsty will probably get a piece of the top 5, and perhaps also the euro-invader.

In the Mile, look for Goldikova to repeat AGAIN, but the other 3 slots in the super are up for grabs, including the other euro, and there aren’t many early runners so Courageous Cat or Sidney’s Candy could factor in as well.

In the Juvenile, this year’s Uncle Mo is Union Rags, who has every right to win. However, a couple horses switching from dirt to poly could do real well on that move, including the Grid’s top 2 speed horses at 10-1 and 30-1, Hansen and Indy.

In the Turf marathon, wheel and box the euro’s, they own this. Dean’s Kitten will have to run his best race like he did last out, just to finish in the money.

The Dirt Mile is filled with blazing speed, including the Factor, Shackleford, and Tapizar running in the 1-2-3 posts, all of which have legit speed. The Factor has carried speed over a mile before, but as of his last race, he wasn’t in the same form as earlier this year when he won the Rebel, because he couldn’t last for 6f last out. There are only 2 late runners in the field, including the other Cali invader and his longest ML odds.

In the Turf Sprint, the favorite is legit, but there are 14 entries and only 2 true early speed horses, including a 30-1 ML switching to turf for the first time. There are also bountiful midpack runners at high odds and the Grid’s top LP is 20-1 ML. Top LP won last year’s turf sprint.

The dirt Sprint looks straightforward and chalky. Big Drama has a good chance to defend, but he also came off a poor last race. Jackson Bend could be the best sprinter out there and can prove it today.

The Marathon also looks kind of chalky. The two foreign invaders with top pf’s could make some noise, even if they haven’t run on dirt their entire lives. If either or both of them take to dirt they could win.

In the Juvenile Turf, fav Majestic City looks primed to win this one, as long as he likes the turf. Surprisingly, the euro entries don’t look that strong in this field. There isn’t much early speed, so the fav should last out, but the top 4 late runners are 8-1, 10-1, 15-1, and 20-1, and it’s guaranteed a couple of those will factor in.

To get the Grid go to http://www.horseracebetwin.com/breeders.htm

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