Loading ...Mar 16 2013
Sat.Mar.16 Oaklawn Free Picks Azeri G3 Rebel G2 Grid
Oaklawn has one of their rare big race days Saturday, hosting the Rebel G2 for 3yo Kentucky Derby hopefuls, and the Azeri G3 for the 4up fillies and mares.
The Azeri looks like a 2 horse race between My Miss Aurelia, coming off perhaps the worst dirt performance of any in the field at 7f last out in December, after posting perhaps the best performance of them in the Ladies BC in November at SA. Steve Asmussen will likely have her ready in the 4yo debut. Race will be chalky if that happens.
The Rebel initially has a field of 11 with 1 coupled entry. The 1 Treasury Bill by Lemon Drop Kid is trying first at route but has a good LP rating for Ronald Ellis. The other half of the entry 1A has an outside post and appears to be there to ensure an honest pace for the closer.
The favorite, Super Ninety Nine (Pulpit) ran away with the Southwest last month here at Oaklawn on sloppy surface and starts from the 10 post. Baffert has an excellent record in this race with his speedy frontrunners.
Just inside the fav is Oxbow (Awesome Again) coming off two strong races at the Fairgrounds for Wayne Lukas, and will be at low odds.
The 2nd choice will likely be Delhomme (Dixie Union), yet another frontrunner, making his 3yo debut for Pletcher after a strong 2yo campaign.
It’s possible the race might actually favor closers even if it hardly ever does. If so you want to look at T-bill and also Carve, who looks to be a dangerous 3rd time starter for Steve Asmussen.
Texas Bling 30-1 has shown late interest and was improving until a disappointing finish in the slop last month.
Hardrock Eleven 50-1 actually had a great closing effort in his only of 7 races where the face in front of him was hot, finishing 2nd. He also finished 2nd behind an honest pace in a turf race last year.
It’s hard to conceive Super Ninety Nine not winning this one but use the others in your exotics, including Baffert’s other, Den’s Legacy, who finishes ITM a lot from mid-pack but doesn’t have much closing speed.
