May 24 2013
Post Preakness 2013 Analysis: Top 2 EP Horses Run 1-2
Pimlico was an interesting race day on Saturday, with mostly the usual favoritism, and a couple of longshots scattered about, including in the Preakness.
While late runners had been fairing well on the dry dirt track, most of the Preakness connections fooled themselves by restraining their horses and allowing for a slow pace.
Gary Stevens fooled them on the front end, setting dawdling fractions in what would end up the slowest Preakness time in over 40 years! It was also the slowest half mile fraction in at least 20 years.
And wouldn’t you know it, the Grid’s top 2 EP horses ran 1-2 for a $300 exacta. This was somewhat predictable given the results earlier in the day, as jockeys and trainers end up overstrategizing for the race.
Here’s a snapshot of the Preakness Grid numbers:
You can see that Oxbow and Itsmyluckyday are the top 2 EP horses, and although close, Mylute was actually the top LP horse, not Orb, who plodded along for fourth.
In fact, Mylute was the only late runner that was ever in the race, and he wasn’t in it until they hit the stretch. The other late runners were busy lolligagging behind a dishonest pace.
Wayne Lukas told the whole world on TV beforehand that they would be forwardly placed, so I guess they didn’t believe him. But letting a quality horse gallop around on slow fractions with a two length lead isn’t the best way to beat him.