Weekend Winners Club

As you know, rain has been enveloping the east coast for the past 24 hours as tropical storm Andrea moves up the coast. This means of course that there is plenty of rain for Elmont, NY as well. Just look at any Doppler map for New York.

Rain started in last night and there has been half an inch so far. A meteorologist for NWS said yesterday that there would be heavy rain at Belmont that would go on all day Friday and into Saturday morning, then clearing skies but only after 3-4 inches of rain.

The track was rolled and sealed on Thursday night after the races and continues to be sealed today. This is similar to the Kentucky Derby track in which the late running trio of Orb, Golden Soul, and Revolutionary came from behind the pack to form the trifecta. However, it may play differently.

If you are watching Belmont today, you can see that it’s already sloppy and still raining. Watching how the track plays today could be a good indicator of tomorrow’s track as well. Even if the skies clear, the track is unlikely to dry out much, but they may end up plowing it at some point.

So far, today’s first race at Belmont was won by a front running favorite who set decent fractions in a race that was taken off turf. The second race was won by a behind the pack closer at 5-1, and the 3rd by a front running favorite galloping. Race 4 trifecta was swept by 3 late runners They will definitely continue to roll and seal the track today.

Before we get started on handicapping the Belmont Stakes, go ahead and download the Grid here.

First of all, note that a full field of 14 means that 12 different owners and 10 different trainers think they can win the race. Repole owns 3, Pletcher trains 5, and Lukas 2. If the track and pace were to play exactly as in the Kentucky Derby, the same trio could very well sweep it again.

That seems unlikely however, since there’s still not many true speedy front runners in the race, so the pace doesn’t look that hot so far, and would be hard pressed to match the blazing pace in the run for roses.

Let’s look at how the horses have performed on off-tracks:
1. Frac Daddy: 16th Ky Derby, 2nd mdn Bel my-s as 2yo
2. Freedom Child: 1st Peter Pan Bel sy-s last month
3. Overanalyze: 11th Ky Derby
4. Giant Finish: 10th Ky Derby, 5th my-s Aqu as 2yo
5. Orb: 1st Ky Derby
6. Incognito: 5th Peter Pan Bel sy-s, 3rd mdn Aqu my-s as 2yo
7. Oxbow: 6th Ky Derby
8. Midnight Taboo: 2nd OC75kn1x Bel my-s last month
9. Revolutionary: 3rd Ky Derby
10. Will Tack Charge: 8th Ky Derby, 6th Southwest sy-s Feb
11. Vyjack: 18th Ky Derby, 1st 75k stakes Aqu sy-s as 2yo
12. Palace Malice: 12th Ky Derby, 2nd OC75k GP sy-s Jan
13. Unlimited Budget: broke mdn at Aqu on gd as 2yo
14. Golden Soul: 2nd Ky Derby
As you can see, all of the hoses have some form of off-track experience, and all but one on a sloppy or muddy sealed track, and more than half have run a strong race under such circumstances.

Palace Malice may have had an unimpressive run for the roses, but was it because of the sy-s track, on which he ran a strong one at Gulfstream, or was it because he took a 3.5 length lead early going 3-wide and setting suicide fractions? I think it’s probably the latter.

Keep in mind that the Belmont Stakes is usually NOT won by a behind-the-pack runner, and rarely by a true frontrunner either. It’s normally a mid pack runner that takes the lead in the stretch, passing tiring frontrunners and holding off late closers. This is typically known as a horse with tactical speed.

Tactical speed horses in the Belmont Stakes include the following:
Frac Daddy
Incognito
Oxbow
Will Take Charge
Vyjack
Palace Malice
Unlimited Budget

Now, the Belmont champion will not necessarily be one of these, with the quality closers that formed the Derby trio lurking, who could easily be moved up early in the race. But to get some good long shots let’s start with these and weed some of them out.

Frac Daddy and Incognito don’t have much speed related to the rest of the field. Oxbow and Will Take Charge have all but proven unreliable in the mud, and otherwise the rest of them seem legitimate contenders.

I like to look for horses that are still improving such as Pletcher’s Palace Malice and the filly Unlimited Budget. Vyjack was also improving before the Ky Derby debacle.

For these reasons I’ll go with Palice Malice, Unlimited Budget, and Freedom Child because it looked like he wanted to run another mile in the Peter Pan on the Bel sy-s surface. I’ll mix in the Derby trio at the latter positions in the exotics, since it looks like 1 or 2 of them will finish top 4.

Of course, there are 12 other races at Belmont on Saturday so you will want to get the full Belmont day grid. There are two gradedstakes races on the turf, but the non-stakes turf races will almost certain by run in the mud.
http://www.horseracebetwin.com/belmont.htm

The Belmont Grid includes all 13 races, including the 4 graded stakes on the undercard This includes every race and an update Saturday morning for scratches and course changes (for off-turf). The graded stakes undercard looks exciting and there are a couple good long shots in there as well.

That will do it for today. Good luck in the races!
Dalton

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