Loading ...Oct 31 2013
Breeders’ Cup Analysis; Large Pick 6 Carryover at Santa Anita
By now you probably have heard that the Breeders’ Cup World Championships of thoroughbred racing are taking place this week at Santa Anita Park beginning with 5 Cup races on Friday and ending with 9 on Saturday.
That’s 14 total Breeders’ Cup race divisions, and there are also 8 more non-championship races on Friday and Saturday’s cards, most of which are stakes races, making it a racing weekend worth waiting for.  The weather in the LA area should be mostly sunny and warm as usual.
Now you probably want to know what’s for free. First thing we did on Monday after post draw was put together a sheet with all the fields including post positions, jockeys, trainers, and morning line odds.  Beside each race is a link to free PP’s from Equibase.
Note that the free PP’s do NOT have post positions or odds, but are listed in alphabetic order since they were produced pre-post-draw. However, our page has all the posts and odds, so no worries. The next thing we did was a simple odds line analysis.
Some of the horses were assigned significantly lower odds after post draw than they had in the unofficial early line, and by this we mean the odds became half or less. We marked these odds in red. Other horses had their odds rise significantly in the morning line, or rise despite a decrease in the field size. The odds for these horses were marked in green.
These situations require further investigation. Take a look at the Marathon for example. Commander’s odds decreased significantly after post draw. This could be because he’s the only E8, which means he could be alone on the lead, or that he has the best pair of PF’s if you go to his 3rd and 4th races back.
Suns Out Guns Out on the other hand, had his odds double to 10-1, making him the longest morning line shot on the board. This one actually has the 2nd best dirt PF in the field last out, behind Worldly. Ever Rider was set as the favorite, but we can’t do PF’s for his races in Argentine due to lack of info.
This analysis also helps us identify possible overlays, which of course can’t truly be determined until we near post time as the public weighs in. Another great example is the Dirt Mile G1 on Friday. Golden Ticket, Hymn Book, Brujo de Olleros, and Goldencents all had odds increase after post draw.
It so happens that Golden Ticket 12-1, Hymn Book 15-1, and Brujo 8-1 are also 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in the Grid’s Late Pace (LP) rating, respectively. Golden Ticket is also coming off the best 2 PF’s last out of any in the field. It’s also worth mentioning that the top LP belongs to Easter Gift at 15-1.
As you can see, we’ve only mentioned 2 of 14 Breeders’ Cup races and already have identified ample reasonable long shots to choose from. The Saturday races offer more Cup races and more good long shots to select. To identify these by top EP, LP, power, PF’s, etc, you need the Grid.
http://horseracebetwin.com/breeders.htm
The next thing worth mentioning is that Santa Anita has a large Pick 6 carryover on Thursday of $440K. The ramifications of another carryover are enormous. Today’s pool will probably reach $2 million which is very high for a weekday pool.
If that were to carry over again into Friday, we’d be looking at a Day 1 Breeders Cup Pick 6 pool of over $5-6 million, and as pointed out, there are good long shots available.  If it were to not get hit again on Friday, the sky is the limit but it would be a record-setting Pick 6 pool for Day 2.
Those are a couple of big IF’s, but the Breeders’ Cup Pick 6 usually doesn’t get hit, so if it’s not won today, those hypothetical’s could really come into play. But, first things first. Let’s start with today and try to take down a nice Pick 6 pool of around $2 million if possible. Free grid here:
But what about the Classic, isn’t that the only race that matters? No, it’s certainly not, but it does have the highest purse and anticipation, and is the last leg in Saturday’s Pick 6 sequence so I’ll do a quick break down now.
Bob Baffert saw Game On Dude’s odds drop to 8-5 making him a very heavy morning line favorite. Although he’s been excellent in his last 4 races, I don’t see him winning at 10f on the front end with two other quality E8’s in the field, including last year’s winner Fort Larned, top EP, who did win gate to wire.
Fort Larned has been oscillating his last 6 races, so if he follows that pattern will turn in a subpar performance, but that’s no guarantee. Last year’s 2nd and 3rd place finishers also return. Mucho Macho Man is coming off a stellar performance in the Awesome Again G1, and Flat Out has been inconsistent.
The key prep for the Classic is typically the Jockey Club Gold Cup G1 held at Belmont, where Flat Out and Fort Larned had finished 1st and 3rd last year. This year’s results: Ron the Greek, Palace Malice, and Flat Out. Ron the Greek passed the other two as if they were trotting and won handily in excellent form.
The top PF’s last out are Ron the Greek and Mucho Macho Man, followed by Fort Larned who won a listed stakes at Churchill, Paynter, 2nd in the Awesome Again, and Game on Dude coming off a strong Pacific Classic win on polytrack.
The top LP ratings belong to Last Gunfighter, who lost his footing in the Gold Cup, and Will Take Charge, who has just won the Pa Derby and Travers, and certainly can’t be ignored in this one. The next 3 are Paynter, Mucho, and Palace.
Those mentioned in the last sentence also nice odds according to the morning line, since all the odds are on Game on Dude. I’m leaning towards Will Take Charge at 12-1 and Ron the Greek (out with quarter crack) at 8-1 as my top picks. Mucho is 5-1 and should be in the money as usual. Last Gunfighter deserves a look at 20-1.
That’s all the info I can give you now without actually giving you the entire Grid. If I have time we’ll do a video analysis of the Classic and a few other races. All of the free Breeders’ Cup materials and analysis are located at this link.
http://www.horseracebetwin.com/picks/category/stakes-racing/breeders-cup/
To get the complete Breeders’ Cup race day grids including all of the races on tap for Friday and Saturday at Santa Anita, follow the link here.  EP, LP, power, and performance ratings for every horse in every race, except for those few that only ran in South America or France.
http://horseracebetwin.com/breeders.htm
I wish you the best of luck in this year’s Breeders’ Cup wagering and the Pick 6 for today, tomorrow, and Saturday. Good luck and enjoy the racing!
Oh and Happy Halloween! Make sure you get that Pick 6 wager in before candy time.
Dalton
PS… you may be wondering how you can get into all this wagering action, without making a trip to the track or OTB, or Vegas every time you want to bet on horses. Well, it’s actually really simple, completely legal, and FREE to bet from your computer through TwinSpires.com.
Click here to take a look at TwinSpires.com and sign up for a FREE horse wagering account!
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