Weekend Winners Club

Yes, there was a lot of chalk winning yesterday at Keeneland, but there were also some nice long shots, some compliments of the Grid.

Friday’s Analysis and Racing Grid

Here are some highlights from Friday’s race call:

R3: From Friday’s analysis: “R3: The favorites look strong yes, but the horse with the top PF average and top power and EP according to the grid, is EarlyEntry at 15-1. Returning to sprint he could be very dangerous.” Result: Early Entry won at 15-1.

R5: Race Day won going back to the distance where he had the 2nd best PF in the race, with odds going from 10-1 ML to 4-1 so not a whole lot of value. Fav 2nd, 3rd was long shot we called out yesterday as dangerous long shot. 2 of the other long shot specials were scratched.

R7: Friday’s analysis: “Liam’s Map won’t need a map to find the wire in the BC Dirt Mile, but there’s a lot of speed in this race, and Red Vine 6-1 and Lea 8-1 will be happy to pick of the pieces from a speed duel. ” Result: Liam’s Map followed by Lea 6-1 and Red Vine 9-1.

R8: Catch a Glimpse won at 6-1, having the Grid’s top PF and top turf PF by far (10 points).

OK so enough with yesterday, how can the Grid help you today? The same way it helped people yesterday. The Grid exists to give you value plays that you don’t get anywhere else.

The Grid is already on fire today as well, so much that I haven’t had time to write up the analysis yet.

Race 4 today was won by Mongolian Saturday at 16-1. Top two PF’s in the Grid, both on dirt, but also one of the top turf PF’s. Top EP, Speed, and Power rating in the Grid. 16-1.

R5: Wavell Avenue, with 2nd best LP according to the Grid, won at 10-1 odds.

Looking ahead to the Pick 6:

Race 6 BC Filly and Mare Turf G1 9.5f: Stephanie’s Kitten is the top US horse in Power and LP at 10-1 ML. Hard Not to Like is 2nd in LP at 10-1, Watsdachances is 3rd in LP at 20-1. European invaders Legatissimo, favored at 8-5 and Miss France look to kill US buzzes.

Race 7 BC Sprint G1 6f will be won by a US horse without doubt, with 15 to choose from. I really really like the value of 6. Ivan Fallunovalot with top EP, Speed, and Power at 30-1 ML the 2nd longest shot in the field. Stallwalkin Dude and Salutos Amigos (also top LP) are tied with Ivan for best PF last out, at 15-1 and 12-1 ML. Wild Dude has top LP at 10-1, and Favorite Tale top EP at 12-1. Lots and lots of value to be had here, the 5-2 and 3-1 odds on the top two ML choices are ridicuruous. A better betting race has yet to be seen.

Race 8 BC Mile G1 8f will likely be won by a European invader, either Make Believe, Esoterique, or Time Test. The top US hopes are Tepin at 12-1 and Obviously at 15-1 who will hope to swipe it on the front end.

Race 9 BC Juvenile G1 8.5f will belong to the US as usual. A race normally won by chalk will probably live up to that reputation again. The top 3 ML choices are Brody’s Cause, Greenpointcrusader, and Nyquist, and one of them will probably win. The value play is Swipe at 15-1, who just missed trying to close on Nyquist last out.

Race 10 BC Turf 12f G1: Sad to say but it’s probably best to single Golden Horn at 4-5. For betting the actual race, wheel Shining Copper, Twilight Eclipse, Big Blue Kitten, Pizza Man, Red Rifle, and Slumber underneath or as a saver.

Race 11 BC Classic G1 10f: In an unusual set of circumstances, American Pharoah is favored at 6-5, making him one of the worst favorites of all time. The set of 3yo’s he beat out for the Triple Crown was very marginal, and he couldn’t even beat them last out in the Travers. The race will undoubtedly be won by either Beholder, an outstanding mare who has won 5 straight G1’s including the latest Pacific Classic against males, or top LP ‘s Honor Code or Tonalist. I’d like to see Smooth Roller run his last race againt at 15-1 for some nice value, he would have a good shot at winning.

Get the Breeders Cup Grid here

Good luck at Breeders’ Cup this weekend!
Dalton

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