Weekend Winners Club

The following rankings are for the 2016 Kentucky Derby
December 20 2015
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Download Final 2016 Kentucky Derby Grid Here with full field, odds, posts, and over 80 different factors including pedigree, performance, and historical criteria!
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1. Nyquist remains in 1st place, mostly undisputed throughout the industry, after winning 3 straight Grade 1 races this year, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The impressive win in the Juvenile followed victories in the Frontrunner Stakes and Del Mar Futurity for trainer Doug O’Neill and jockey Mario Gutierrez. The Uncle Mo colt has won all 5 starts this year.
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Nyquist and Swipe finish 1-2 in BC Juvenile

2. Swipe will stay in 2nd, since it appears the only horse he can’t beat is Nyquist, who he has finished 2nd to now 4 times in a row. Trainer Keith Desormeaux appears optimistic that one of these days he might turn the tables. With Birdstone his sire, the best chance to do that might be in the Belmont Stakes. One of the most heavily raced 2yo’s, he has already run in 7 races this year, with 5 2nd’s, a 1st, and a 3rd.
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3. Brody’s Cause checks in at 3rd after a 3rd place finish in the BC Juvenile. After a horrible start to his career, finishing 25 lengths back on turf, which Giant’s Causeway colts usually like, Dale Romans switched him to dirt. There he rattled off a maiden win and a victory in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland before succumbing to the 1-2 punch from SoCal.
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4. Airoforce did not run in the BC Juvenile, with Mark Casse opting instead to run the previous day in the BC Juvenile Turf. There he ran valiantly but was outclosed by an Irish horse and finished 2nd. In his previous 2 races he won handily on two turf races including the G3 Bourbon. Most recently the Colonel John colt won the Kentucky Jockey Club G2, beating Mo Tom and Mor Spirit.
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5. Mor Spirit is coming off an impressive win from midpack in the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity. He previously edged out Mo Tom in the Ky Jockey Club G2 while finishing 2 lengths behind Airoforce. The Eskendereya (Giant’s Causeway) colt has 2 wins and 2 places so far and looks to keep improving under Bob Baffert.
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6. Exagerrator (Curlin) held off a strong close by Sunny Ridge to win the Delta Jackpot G3 after finishing 4th in the BC Juvenile. He was also passed by Brody’s Causeway in the Breeders’ Futurity while finishing 2nd, but has won two graded races so far and keeps improving for Keith Desormeaux, who has two in our top six.
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7. Mohaymen has some ranking him as high as 2nd, which is a tad ludicrous in my opinion. Rarely does a horse working the entire winter circuit in NY end up a top Ky Derby contender. We’ll give the Tapit colt credit for wins in the Nashua and Remsen, but he hasn’t beat anyone in the Derby Dozen, so a ranking this high may even be a stretch. Kirian will need to face him up to some other Derby contenders to make me a believer.
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8. Toews on Ice tried to hold on for dear life in his first route race before finally succumbing to stablemate Mor Spirit in the Los Al Futurity, as Baffert went 1 and 2. The son of ArchArchArch, who was injured in the Kentucky Derby, might be better suited for turf due to sireline of Arch and Kris S. However, he has been effective on dirt, winning 3 straight sprint stakes on dirt before the loss.
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9. Cocked and Loaded finished 5th in the BC Juvenile after running in 4th and 3rd most of the way. The fact that he got passed by all of the top 4 in that race doesn’t bode well for going another couple furlongs, but he did drift out. The Col John colt owns an Iroquois G3 victory and broke his maiden first time out for Larry Rivelli.
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10. Riker (Include) tried to take the BC Juvenile from the gate to wire, but was eventually passed by 5 others, including Cocked and Loaded. Prior to that he came off 4 straight Woodbine victories for Nicholas Gonzalez, including the Grey Stakes.
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11. Greenpointcrusader (Bernardini) finished a neck behind Riker in the BC Juvenile after an impressive 4 length win over Sunny Ridge on a sloppy track in the Champagne G1 for Dominick Schettino.
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12. Sunny Ridge (Holy Bull) finished 4 lengths back to Greenpointcrusader in the sloppy Champagne G1, then skipped the BC Juvenile. Jason Servis entered him in the Delta Jackpot (muddy and sealed) where he closed impressively to finish a neck behind Exaggerator.
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12. Mo Tom (Uncle Mo) ties for 12th here because he simply can’t be overlooked. He got a nice closing win in the Street Sense at Churchill for Thomas Amoss, then finished a head behind Mor Spirit for 3rd in the Ky Jockey Club G2 after closing from 12th.

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