Loading ...Feb 19 2016
Risen Star G2 kicks off 2016 Kentucky Derby Championship Series Saturday at Fairgrounds
Friday, February 19, 2016
Fair Grounds
As you probably know already, it’s another big weekend in horse racing, especially for the Fairgrounds at New Orleans. FGNO has 2 listed and 4 graded stakes races, including the Risen G2 for 3yos.
Other tracks have some minor 3yo prep races, including the Turf Paradise Derby and Turfway’s WEBN stakes, but these races are pointless as we say, meaning they have no Derby points attached.
Sunland Park had scheduled the Mine That Bird Derby, named after the famous horse that ran 4th in the Sunland Derby prior to winning the Kentucky Derby at 50-1. However, Sunland currently has no more races scheduled this week due to an outbreak of the equine herpes virus.
Back to FGNO, the Risen Star G2 is the first Kentucky Derby Championship Series race of the year, which means while previous preps were worth only 10 points for the winner, the next 7 will all be worth 50 for the winner, meaning any other horses in the standings will be passed by the Risen Star champion.
After that, the cart will continue to rock back and forth for 6 races until we come back to FGNO for the Louisiana Derby, worth 100 points. Then the stakes will get higher for the Ky Derby, with all the remaining races worth 100 for the winner except the Spiral Stakes at 50, and the Lexington at 10.
The final 2016 Kentucky Derby Prep Series Points standings are listed here.
The only horses that may or may not be surpassed by the Risen Star winner are Mo Tom and Airoforce, who are the two favorites, and Tom’s Ready, also entered. It’s quite likely that one of these will win the race and vault to first place.
The runner up will also pass many of the horses on the leaderboard with 20 points earned. 10 points will be awarded for 3rd, as good as any Prep Series winner, and 5 for 4th place.
The full schedule of Kentucky Derby 2016 Championship Series races is posted here.
Two colts are basically co-favored in the morning line of the Risen Star: Mo Tom 3-1 and Airoforce 5-2. Both of them come with strong qualifications and wins during the prep season. Here’s the full field and then breakdown.
| Prg | 8.5f RisenStr-G2 3 | ML | ST | Sire | Trainer | Jockey |
| 1 | In Equality | 30-1 | P2 | QUALITY ROAD | GYARMATI LEAH | ALVARADO JUNIOR |
| 2 | Mo Tom | 3-1 | S0 | UNCLE MO | AMOSS THOMAS M | LANERIE C J |
| 3 | Dolphus | 15-1 | EP6 | LOOKIN AT LUCKY | SHARP JOE | HERNANDEZ B J JR |
| 4 | Bistraya | 15-1 | E8 | HAYNESFIELD | AGARIE RICKY | MALDONADO E |
| 5 | Forevamo | 12-1 | P2 | UNCLE MO | STALL ALBERT M JR | HERNANDEZ COLBY J |
| 6 | Gun Runner | 6-1 | P6 | CANDY RIDE | ASMUSSEN STEVEN M | GEROUX FLORENT |
| 7 | Its All Relevant | 15-1 | E6 | HARD SPUN | SCHETTINO DOMINICK A | BRAVO J |
| 8 | Tom’s Ready | 8-1 | S2 | MORE THAN READY | STEWART DALLAS | VELAZQUEZ J R |
| 9 | Laoban | 30-1 | E4 | UNCLE MO | GUILLOT ERIC | MENA M |
| 10 | Airoforce | 5-2 | P3 | COLONEL JOHN | CASSE MARK | LEPAROUX JULIEN R |
| 11 | Zapperini | 30-1 | P1 | GHOSTZAPPER | FOLEY GREG | TORRES F C |
| 12 | Uncle Walter | 8-1 | P4 | UNCLE MO | MAKER MICHAEL J | CASTELLANO J J |
| 13 | Candy My Boy | 15-1 | EP6 | CANDY RIDE | BRUEGGEMANN ROGER | BRIDGMOHAN S X |
Mo Tom (Uncle Mo) wrapped up last year by winning the Street Sense Stakes, then placing 3rd to Airoforce in the Ky Jockey Club G2 on a sealed but sloppy track. He came back to win the Lecomte G3 in January at the Fairgrounds, after hitting the gate, defeating other field members Tom’s Ready and Uncle Walter. This will be his 6th start for the $150k Tom Amoss trainee.
Mo Tom winning the Street Sense
Photo: Reed Palmer Photography, Churchill Downs
Airoforce (Colonel John) has done nothing wrong yet in his four lifetime races. The colt was purchased for $350k at OBS sale last year and easily won his maiden at first asking. He followed that with a Bourbon G3 turf win at Keeneland, before suffering a narrow loss to a European invader in the BC Juvenile turf, closing well but coming up a neck short. Then the mentioned KYJC victory for Mark Casse, wherein he also beat Los Al Futurity and Bob Lewis Stakes winner Mor Spirit.
Gun Runner (Candy Ride) is at 6-1 and was no match for either in the KYGC last year, but could turn the corner this year. Tom’s Ready (More than Ready) will also be getting some action at 8-1 ML, but doesn’t look like he’s ready to get by the two favorites, having been consistently beaten by them.
Uncle Walter (Uncle Mo) is also at 8-1, and while he failed to catch Mo Tom and Tom’s Ready in the Lecomte, he ran well in his 3rd lifetime start. He does have top overall LP rating according to the Grid, but failed to find his best late stride last out in his first two turn and stakes race.
The most intriguing in the field seems to be Bistraya (Haynesfield) set at 15-1. His first four races were all sprints, and all losses, only coming close in the 4th one, losing by a couple in a maiden. In his first race this year, however, the $160k Keeneland purchase set the tracks for the field and won at a mile.
It’s All Relevant (Hard Spun) is also set at 15-1, and is tied for second best EP with Bistraya, also after winning a 1 mile maiden in his 6th try out. Who has the top EP in the field? Airoforce, despite his P3 running style, has run against superior competition.
In all, there are 4 Uncle Mo colts in the field of 13. It’s interesting that the sire has so much interest after he barely made it thru his 3yo year, requiring major medical attention for a GI infection and rare liver disease. Perhaps those are fluke frailties. There are also two Candy Ride colts in the race.
Look that’s enough analysis; this article was supposed to be over by now. Any other contenders are just long shots right now and would need a serious step up in class to compete. Download the full race day grid for Risen Star day here, including the other stakes races, and identify your own value plays.
The full list of stakes races at the Fairgrounds on Saturday is:
• Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots: Daisy Devine S, $60,000g, 4&up f/m, abt 8.5f.
• Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots: Duncan F. Kenner S, $60,000g, 3&up, 6f.
• Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots: Fair Grounds H (gr. III), $125,000g, 4&up, abt 9f.
• Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots: Mineshaft H (gr. III), $125,000g, 4&up, 8.5f.
• Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots: TwinSpires.com Rachel Alexandra S (gr. II), $200,000g, 3yo f, 8.5f.
• Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots: Veterans Ford Risen Star S (gr. II), $400,000g, 3yo, 8.5f.
Just about all of these stakes races have their prominent favorites, but use the Grid to try to find some value, and there are usually upsets on every card, except for sometimes when all favorites win a million dollar pick 6 pool and it only pays a couple hundred back for each ticket.
But you don’t have to worry about that at the Fairgrounds. They have a decent Pick 5 Jackpot increasing, and should be more tomorrow. Just try to find value using the Grid.
As usual, if you want to want to get the Grid for every important race and track, those options are here.
http://horseracebetwin.com/subscription.htm
Good luck on the Kentucky Derby trail!
Dalton
PS… you may be wondering how you can get into all this wagering action, without making a trip to the track or OTB, Atlantic City, the local casino, or Vegas every time you want to bet on horses. Well, it’s actually really simple, completely legal, and FREE to bet from your computer through TwinSpires.com.
Click here to take a look at TwinSpires.com and sign up for a FREE horse wagering account!
