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Weekend Winners Club

Feb 22 2016

Fairgrounds Feb.20 Risen Star and Rachel Alexandra post race day recap and breakdown

Monday, February 22, 2016
Fairgrounds, New Orleans

So, after the Risen Star day was said and done at Fairgrounds, I got a message from an email subscriber saying he used the Grid and had no success. I wondered why this was, so decided to write about it.
Let’s break it down. The rankings in the comments will refer to the field of each race after scratches.

The Fairgrounds Risen Star Day Grid was initially posted here.

R1 12:30 6.0f Dirt 145 Clm 5000b 4+:
The top horse according to the Grid, and 2nd betting choice, wanted nothing to do with the track and finished last. The favorite 1. Chapter and Verse had some medical problem, was pulled up then vanned off. 2. Will it Thunder won the race at 7-2 and was top 3 across the board in all Grid categories. The Grid would not have got you the exacta, since there was nothing to like about the 2nd place horse 4. Magical Moment at 17-1, but you got the winner.

R2 12:58 6.0f Dirt 145 S-OClm 20000n2x 4+:
The top 2 were also the top 2 betting choices and ranked highly in key Grid categories. Results:
3. Storm Viper 4-1 was 2nd in EP and Speed, the only E in the field and highest speed points with E7
2. Jazzy Rebel 7-5 was tied for top LP and Stamina
5. Don’t be Mad at 10-1 made us mad, but to like was tied for top LP and top 4 Stamina
We probably couldn’t get you the tri here but the exacta was $32 and the winner.

R3 1:27 6.0f Dirt 145 Md Sp Wt 3:
Only 1 horse had run before in this race, and not even on dirt. This is a race where you are more likely to consult full pp charts, or just bet it based on pedigree, trainer, and ROI, which we do provide. The winner was an even money Steve Asmussen horse by High Cotton, so you would have been stupid to leave him out of any bets. The other 2 were 3-1 and 5-2 and were coached by the other 2 top money trainers in the field of 6. Not a real good betting race.

R4 1:56 6.0f Dirt 145 Md Sp Wt 3F:
Only 3 in the field of 9 ran before, including the 4-5 favorite 1. Stradivarius, who finished 4th. The 2nd betting choice, another Steve Asmussen first timer called Modify, finished 2nd at 5-1. The winner was 1st time starter Lough Ness at 29-1, with a good sire Quality Road, and normally low ROI but competent trainer James Baker. The key here was that with an 8-1 ML he was a huge overlay.
Since in races like this where most of the horses haven’t even run, a lot of things can happen. This type of race I like to wheel some or all horses on top in a dime super over the top 3 or 4 betting choices. This strategy paid 383 for the dime bet which cost about $6. If you successfully did that with the dollar tri, it’s more expensive but would pay $1587. So far this is the only hard to get winner.

R5 2:25 8.5f Dirt 130 MnshaftH-G3 4+:
This field went from 5 to 4 after a scratch, but believe it not, it was still a decent betting race. The winner was also the longest shot in the field at 6.5-1, since he came off a subpar race in which he was “clobbered 3/16” whatever that means. However, the 1 Majestic Harbor ranked #1 in the Grid in EP, Speed, and Power, and even 2nd in Stamina, because of his prior 3 races to the clobbered one. He was also the only speed in the field an E8 who finished 2nd twice and 3rd in those 3 graded stakes at 1.25, 1.5, and 1.75 miles. There was no reason to think he couldn’t hold a lead for 1 1/16, and I considered singling him in the pick 4. In 2nd was the EP4 and 2nd choice at 2-1.
The exacta and $1 tri both paid $38. More importantly, the 50ct pick 3 paid $152 and the 50ct pick 4 a whopping $2705. I only used the top 2 finishers in this race, so I had room elsewhere, but missed the winner in the previous race, wheeling about half the field but not the long shot winner. I actually wanted to wheel all of them in that maiden but would have had to single the Asmussen favorite who won the previous. I should have done that, but hindsight is 20/20. Tough break.

R6 2:55 8.0f Turf OClm 40000n2x 4+:
A field of 11 was won by the 10 Hammer’s Terror, the 2-1 favorite and ML favorite. Top 3 or 4 in most Grid categories, but regardless you always include the favorite in all exotic wagers, unless you’re dumb. In 2nd was 6-1 4th choice Lewis Vale, tops in EP and Speed, and 2nd in Grid Power ranking. In 3rd was a 12-1 horse that there wasn’t much to like about. I liked the 4th place horse Tough Customer at 27-1, a Giant’s Causeway going to turf after 4 straight dirt races with competitive pf’s for this field.
Exacta was 55, trifecta 180, dime super 387. The 50ct pick 3 was 435 if you got that long shot winner.

R7 3:25 6.0f Dirt 145 DFKennerB60k 3+:
Won by 2-1 2nd choice Cinco Charlie, who didn’t rank highly in the Grid categories unfortunately, but was tied for the 3rd best PF of the last 4 races. And he was the 2nd betting choice, 2nd in speed points at EP6, with Steve Asmussen.
In 2nd was Vigorous Titan at 30-1, who was top 4 or 5 in all Grid categories, including 2nd in EP ranking, and at E7 the lone frontrunning type in the race.
Officer Griffin took 3rd at 6-1, ranking top 3 or 4 in most Grid categories, including top EP, and an EP4.
So the top 3 horses were also the only 3 in the field that were early runners: EP6, E7, and EP4. The rest were P and S types, and the late runners had no say in it, including the even money favorite who finished last. When there’s not much speed in a 6f sprint, go with the not much speed.
Because of the no factor favorite, the exacta paid $88 and $1 tri $182.

R8 3:54 8.5f Turf DaisyDvine60k 4+FM:
The top 4 finishers in this were also the top 4 public betting choices. Three of them were 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, across the board in major Grid categories, and one was 5th. I liked the winner going from dirt to turf with good PF’s and Grid rankings.
Exacta $42, Tri $57.

R9 4:23 8.5f Dirt 130 RchlAlx-G2 3F:
The longest shot in the field, Venus Valentine, won at 74-1, plodding in last for 3/4 of a mile before a monstrous closing move. There was not much to like about this filly on paper, except maybe that she would be trying a dirt route for the first time, and something magical would happen, which it did. Trainer Tom Amoss did have the best situational ROI numbers, which are listed on the Grid.
The other thing I would have liked is that she was the latest runner in a field full of young speed going 8.5f. The Grid has her listed as an EP4 because that designation is just copied from the data file, which almost always has it right, but is way off in this case. Even if they calculate it using the 4 past races, and you’re only supposed to use the last 3, there’s no way it gets more than 3 speed points.
Calculated according to Bill Quirin, which is the way I do it, the horse would be listed as an S1. I don’t know why they were so far off, but future versions of the Grid will likely have my calculation at some point. The Grid is changing for the better this year but will take a lot more work. For more information on speed point calculations, see the below article. The pace analysis section will tell you how this race’s pace scenario would be considered very hot.
http://horseracebetwin.com/speedpoints.htm
The Asmussen favored filly finished 5th, out of the money at 3-5 so this further opened it up for some nice payouts. The 2nd, and 3rd place horses had some merit, and the 4th place Asmussen filly was improving, but this is all hard to come up with. Explaining it away by saying the S1 was the only reason the filly won isn’t good enough, but it’s the only one I have now, besides an unpredictable jump up in class, without further information. The 3rd and 4th finishers were the only 2 other S types in the race.
The payouts were exacta $1086, trifecta $3818, dime super $1321, and 50ct pick 3 $542.

R10 4:52 9.0f Turf FgH-G3 4+:
The top 3 ran in exact public betting order. Nothing to see here. Payouts sucked, except the pick 3.

Gun Runner leads Forevamo, Mo Tom, and Candy My Boy

Gun Runner leads Forevamo, Mo Tom, and Candy My Boy
Photo: Times Piscayne

R11 5:21 8.5f Dirt 130 RisenStr-G2 3:
If you didn’t see the race, you should, but even so, the following analysis will help you understand.
The winner Gun Runner was 5-1, improving once again in his 4th lifetime start, for again, Steve Asmussen, who basically owns the Fairgrounds. The Candy Ride colt was 4th or 5th in each Grid category coming in.
Gun Runner stalked a hot early pace and took the lead in the stretch, holding on for dear life from late charging Forevamo and Mo Tom. What other post race recaps won’t tell you is that he had a pathetic final quarter of 26.18.
Forrevamo finished 2nd at 40-1 and there was not much to like about him going in. He didn’t have good LP figures but also never had a fast pace to run at before. Regardless, he ran a very nice race and closed well, still gaining ground at the end finishing ½ length back.
Mo Tom at 5-2 assumed his place at the rear as usual, perhaps with Corey Lanerie waiting too long to make his move, but move he did and was moving real well late. The problem was, Bistraya who had been chasing in 2nd for half the race, faded and lugged in, bumping Mo Tom into the rail and causing Lanerie to check up hard.
After the cut off was complete, Lanerie angled way outside to complete the move and had Mo Tom flying late, and gaining major ground for 3rd. Let’s put it this way, he was in dead last at the half, 9th at ¾ mile, and 6 lengths back coming into the stretch, got bumped, checked hard, then still came up only 1.5 lengths short. I
Without the interference, or with another half a furlong or so, Mo Tom would have definitely won the race in my opinion. He had the best race of any of them and deserved the win. For this reason, he may be better value in his next race but unfortunately he missed out on valuable Derby points this time. Tom Amoss will almost definitely run him in the Louisiana Derby next month to secure a Derby spot.
Candy My Boy at 35-1 led for most of the race and held on for 4th. There was not a lot to like on paper, but he did have a strong PF last out and his PF’s continue to improve every race.
Favored Airoforce finished 2nd to last with odds of 1.7 in his first race of the year. He bumped Gun Runner early and rated 3w, had no run then faltered in the end.
Exacta: $335
Trifecta: $645
Dime super: $945
Pick 4 (50ct): $4771

R12 5:50 6.0f Dirt 145 S-Md 10000 3+:
Won by Mr. Justright at 4-1, one of 3 E horses that actually took the lead and stuck with it. Due to the earliest 2 of his previous 4 races being horrible, he didn’t rank highly in most Grid categories. However, his EP calc was only 6 points from the leader, and his last out PF was the best in the field. The horses in this field were mostly marginal and unpredictable.

So, you can see that there was some money to win using the Grid, but you would definitely not have won all of them, and some of the payouts were not any good. Most of the exotics ended up being very tricky and difficult to get, but a few pick 3’s and exactas and dime supers were playable and payable.
There were definitely some unpredictable horses hitting here and there and even winning, but even some of the long shots hitting the board were 3 race improvers and others bouncing back from a bad race. As described in the analysis, the Grid could get you most of the winners at least.

The Grid won’t normally point out the longest shot in the field at 74-1, and neither will any other handicapping product. But the Grid can give you a 7-1 winner in a 4 horse race. This sport can be highly unpredictable sometimes, and you just have to roll with. No gambler wins every race, it’s impossible. But win the ones you should, and you can get ahead.

Well, this has been the longest post race day analysis probably ever written. It’s definitely the longest I’ve ever done, but it can be a good learning tool. The Grid can be used in various angles, including pace handicapping, improving horses, oscillators, all kinds of other handicapping practices.

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