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Weekend Winners Club

Feb 24 2016

Doug’s Double Derby Dozen February 24, 2016

Wednesday, February 24, 2016
Churchill Downs
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Download Final 2016 Kentucky Derby Grid Here with full field, odds, posts, and over 80 different factors including pedigree, performance, and historical criteria!
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Here are the current Derby Dozen rankings for this week. Analysis follows table.

Nyquist geared down in San Vicente G2

Nyquist geared down in San Vicente G2
Benoit Photo

Rank Horse Sire Trainer Last Race Date Pts
1 Nyquist Uncle Mo Doug O’Neill 1st San Vicente G2 7f 15-Feb 30
2 Mohaymen Tapit Kiaran McLaughlin 1st Holy Bull G2 30-Jan 20
3 Mor Spirit Eskendereya Bob Baffert 1st Bob Lewis G2 6-Feb 24
4 Mo Tom Uncle Mo Tom Amoss 3rd Risen Star G2 20-Feb 22
5 Exaggerator Curlin Keith Desormeaux 2nd San Vicente G2 7f 15-Feb 16
6 Brody’s Cause Giant’s Causeway Dale Romans 3rd BC Juvenile G1 31-Oct 14
7 Sunny Ridge (g) Holy Bull Jason Servis 1st Withers G3 30-Jan 18
8 Swipe Birdstone Keith Desormeaux 2nd BC Juvenile G1 31-Oct 12
9 Forevamo Uncle Mo Albert Stall Jr 2nd Risen Star G2 20-Feb 20
10 Greenpointcrusader Bernardini Dominick Schettino 2nd Holy Bull G2 30-Jan 14
11 Gun Runner Candy Ride Steve Asmussen 1st Risen Star G2 15-Feb 51
12 Riker Include Nick Gonzalez 6th BC Juvenile G1 31-Oct 10
13 Cocked and Loaded Colonel John Larry Rivelli 5th BC Juvenile G1 31-Oct 10
14 Suddenbreakingnews Mineshaft Donnie Von Hemel 1st Southwest G3 15-Feb 10
15 Airoforce Colonel John Mark Casse 10th Risen Star G2 20-Feb 10
16 Awesome Banner Awesome of Course Stanley Gold 1st Swale G2 7f 30-Jan 0
17 Awesome Speed Awesome Again Alan Goldberg 1st Mucho Macho Man 2-Jan 0
18 Flexibility Bluegrass Cat Chad Brown 4th Withers G3 30-Jan 15
19 Vorticity Distorted Humor James Lawrence II 2nd Withers G3 30-Jan 8
20 Let’s Meet in Rio Flatter Bob Baffert 2nd Sham G3 9-Jan 4
21 Collected City Zip Bob Baffert 4th Southwest G3 15-Feb 11
22 Candy My Boy Candy Ride R Brueggemann 4th Risen Star G2 20-Feb 5
23 Synchrony Tapit Donnie Von Hemel 3rd Smarty Jones 18-Jan 2
24 Discreetness Discreet Cat Williams Fires 7th Risen Star G2 20-Feb 10

There is no good reason for Nyquist to not remain number one, after his romp in the Derby-pointless San Vicente G2 over Exaggerator and some nobodies. He will have to run in a points race soon and none of us commoners know for sure, but it will likely be in the Santa Anita Derby in my opinion.

Mohaymen moves up to number 2 because he continues to do nothing wrong and live up to his billing after winning the Holy Bull G2. He’s all set for the Fountain of Youth G2 on Feb.27.

Mor Spirit continues to impress after winning both the Los Al Futurity G1 and Bob Lewis G3. He’s expected in the San Felipe G2 on 3/12 and/or Santa Anita Derby in April.

Here’s where I may catch some flak. Mo Tom continues to move up, now at #4 after losing last weekend. If you don’t understand why, read the recap of the 2016 Risen Star G2, or simply watch it a couple of times. It was great enough to see him come up for 3rd after being slammed into the rail and checking up hard in his stretch run. And there’s a good reason he’s 4th in points right now. La Derby likely next.

Gun Runner leads Forevamo, Mo Tom, and Candy My Boy

Gun Runner, Mo Tom, Forevamo in Risen Star
Photo: Times Piscayne

Exaggerator stays on course after running a hard pressed 2nd to Nyquist in the San Vicente.

Brody’s Cause needs to start racing this year and it may be the Tampa Bay Derby on 3/12.

Sunny Ridge continues to improve after a tough loss in Delta, winning the Withers G3.

Swipe is still recovering from injury but it’s hard to dismiss him since the only horse he’s lost to is Nyquist, and his trainer wants him back in the Triple Crown this year.

Forevamo was very impressive in chasing Gun Runner down the stretch in the Risen Star G2. We’ll see if he can replicate that performance next out.

Greenpointcrusader proved he was more than a 2yo BC Juvenile also ran by finishing a not too distant 2nd to Mohaymen in the Holy Bull.

Gun Runner won the Risen Star yes, the first time he’s beaten anyone on this list, having lost to several of them before. He chased a hard pace, took the lead, and held on for dear life as Forevamo closed and Mo Tom charged after being interfered with. In my opinion, he was both good and lucky, and had the advantage of Asmussen’s home field. But he deserves to be in the dozen at this point.

Riker and Cocked and Loaded will need to run this year to not lose ground on the list.

Suddenbreakingnews got on the board with an opportune win in the Southwest G3, over a big field of nobodies. Most were non stakes runners except for Discreetness, who won the Smarty Jones over nobody as well. So he beat nobody except Discreetness, who beat nobody. Nonetheless, he was impressive in closing from last place and deserves mentioning here.

Airoforce took a huge step back in finishing 10th in the Risen Star. He was impressive before that.

Awesome Banner is finally tossing his hat into Derby preps after winning the Hutcheson and Swale G2’s at 7f, Gulfstream Park, handily. Time to try two turns, most likely in the Fountain of Youth on 2/27, and will need some points with his current total of zero.

Awesome Speed hasn’t run since Jan.1, winning the listed Mucho Macho Man stakes at Gulfstream, but many found him impressive. He too, could appear in the FOY on 2-27, but needs a points race soon, as his total is also zero.

Flexibility took a step back, finishing 4th in the Withers G3, but it was a tougher field than he faced in winning the Jerome a month beforehand. He still hasn’t beat anyone of note but always contends.

Vorticity finished 2nd in the Withers G3 and continues to improve.

Let’s Meet in Rio finished 2nd in the Sham G3 but will need more than 4 points to get in Derby contention.

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