Feb 24 2016
Doug’s Double Derby Dozen February 24, 2016
Wednesday, February 24, 2016
Churchill Downs
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Here are the current Derby Dozen rankings for this week. Analysis follows table.
Rank | Horse | Sire | Trainer | Last | Race | Date | Pts |
1 | Nyquist | Uncle Mo | Doug O’Neill | 1st | San Vicente G2 7f | 15-Feb | 30 |
2 | Mohaymen | Tapit | Kiaran McLaughlin | 1st | Holy Bull G2 | 30-Jan | 20 |
3 | Mor Spirit | Eskendereya | Bob Baffert | 1st | Bob Lewis G2 | 6-Feb | 24 |
4 | Mo Tom | Uncle Mo | Tom Amoss | 3rd | Risen Star G2 | 20-Feb | 22 |
5 | Exaggerator | Curlin | Keith Desormeaux | 2nd | San Vicente G2 7f | 15-Feb | 16 |
6 | Brody’s Cause | Giant’s Causeway | Dale Romans | 3rd | BC Juvenile G1 | 31-Oct | 14 |
7 | Sunny Ridge (g) | Holy Bull | Jason Servis | 1st | Withers G3 | 30-Jan | 18 |
8 | Swipe | Birdstone | Keith Desormeaux | 2nd | BC Juvenile G1 | 31-Oct | 12 |
9 | Forevamo | Uncle Mo | Albert Stall Jr | 2nd | Risen Star G2 | 20-Feb | 20 |
10 | Greenpointcrusader | Bernardini | Dominick Schettino | 2nd | Holy Bull G2 | 30-Jan | 14 |
11 | Gun Runner | Candy Ride | Steve Asmussen | 1st | Risen Star G2 | 15-Feb | 51 |
12 | Riker | Include | Nick Gonzalez | 6th | BC Juvenile G1 | 31-Oct | 10 |
13 | Cocked and Loaded | Colonel John | Larry Rivelli | 5th | BC Juvenile G1 | 31-Oct | 10 |
14 | Suddenbreakingnews | Mineshaft | Donnie Von Hemel | 1st | Southwest G3 | 15-Feb | 10 |
15 | Airoforce | Colonel John | Mark Casse | 10th | Risen Star G2 | 20-Feb | 10 |
16 | Awesome Banner | Awesome of Course | Stanley Gold | 1st | Swale G2 7f | 30-Jan | 0 |
17 | Awesome Speed | Awesome Again | Alan Goldberg | 1st | Mucho Macho Man | 2-Jan | 0 |
18 | Flexibility | Bluegrass Cat | Chad Brown | 4th | Withers G3 | 30-Jan | 15 |
19 | Vorticity | Distorted Humor | James Lawrence II | 2nd | Withers G3 | 30-Jan | 8 |
20 | Let’s Meet in Rio | Flatter | Bob Baffert | 2nd | Sham G3 | 9-Jan | 4 |
21 | Collected | City Zip | Bob Baffert | 4th | Southwest G3 | 15-Feb | 11 |
22 | Candy My Boy | Candy Ride | R Brueggemann | 4th | Risen Star G2 | 20-Feb | 5 |
23 | Synchrony | Tapit | Donnie Von Hemel | 3rd | Smarty Jones | 18-Jan | 2 |
24 | Discreetness | Discreet Cat | Williams Fires | 7th | Risen Star G2 | 20-Feb | 10 |
There is no good reason for Nyquist to not remain number one, after his romp in the Derby-pointless San Vicente G2 over Exaggerator and some nobodies. He will have to run in a points race soon and none of us commoners know for sure, but it will likely be in the Santa Anita Derby in my opinion.
Mohaymen moves up to number 2 because he continues to do nothing wrong and live up to his billing after winning the Holy Bull G2. He’s all set for the Fountain of Youth G2 on Feb.27.
Mor Spirit continues to impress after winning both the Los Al Futurity G1 and Bob Lewis G3. He’s expected in the San Felipe G2 on 3/12 and/or Santa Anita Derby in April.
Here’s where I may catch some flak. Mo Tom continues to move up, now at #4 after losing last weekend. If you don’t understand why, read the recap of the 2016 Risen Star G2, or simply watch it a couple of times. It was great enough to see him come up for 3rd after being slammed into the rail and checking up hard in his stretch run. And there’s a good reason he’s 4th in points right now. La Derby likely next.
Exaggerator stays on course after running a hard pressed 2nd to Nyquist in the San Vicente.
Brody’s Cause needs to start racing this year and it may be the Tampa Bay Derby on 3/12.
Sunny Ridge continues to improve after a tough loss in Delta, winning the Withers G3.
Swipe is still recovering from injury but it’s hard to dismiss him since the only horse he’s lost to is Nyquist, and his trainer wants him back in the Triple Crown this year.
Forevamo was very impressive in chasing Gun Runner down the stretch in the Risen Star G2. We’ll see if he can replicate that performance next out.
Greenpointcrusader proved he was more than a 2yo BC Juvenile also ran by finishing a not too distant 2nd to Mohaymen in the Holy Bull.
Gun Runner won the Risen Star yes, the first time he’s beaten anyone on this list, having lost to several of them before. He chased a hard pace, took the lead, and held on for dear life as Forevamo closed and Mo Tom charged after being interfered with. In my opinion, he was both good and lucky, and had the advantage of Asmussen’s home field. But he deserves to be in the dozen at this point.
Riker and Cocked and Loaded will need to run this year to not lose ground on the list.
Suddenbreakingnews got on the board with an opportune win in the Southwest G3, over a big field of nobodies. Most were non stakes runners except for Discreetness, who won the Smarty Jones over nobody as well. So he beat nobody except Discreetness, who beat nobody. Nonetheless, he was impressive in closing from last place and deserves mentioning here.
Airoforce took a huge step back in finishing 10th in the Risen Star. He was impressive before that.
Awesome Banner is finally tossing his hat into Derby preps after winning the Hutcheson and Swale G2’s at 7f, Gulfstream Park, handily. Time to try two turns, most likely in the Fountain of Youth on 2/27, and will need some points with his current total of zero.
Awesome Speed hasn’t run since Jan.1, winning the listed Mucho Macho Man stakes at Gulfstream, but many found him impressive. He too, could appear in the FOY on 2-27, but needs a points race soon, as his total is also zero.
Flexibility took a step back, finishing 4th in the Withers G3, but it was a tougher field than he faced in winning the Jerome a month beforehand. He still hasn’t beat anyone of note but always contends.
Vorticity finished 2nd in the Withers G3 and continues to improve.
Let’s Meet in Rio finished 2nd in the Sham G3 but will need more than 4 points to get in Derby contention.