Loading ...Feb 26 2016
GP Sprint, FOY, Davona Dale, Oh My!
Friday, February 26, 2016
Gulfstream Park
Today’s race of the week is. You guessed it: the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth G2 for 3yo’s going 8.5 furlongs at Gulfstream Park on dirt. The FOY highlights a 13 race card with 6 graded stakes races and 8 stakes races in all Saturday at GP.
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- Fountain of Youth G2 8.5f dirt 3yo
Before you say, wait this is only a six horse race, etc. Keep in mind: not many people want to take on an undefeated $2.2 million (Keeneland sale) colt that’s been favored in all 4 races and won 3 G2’s in a row under a hand ride. So kudos to those that are stepping up to the challenge.
Mohaymen wins Holy Bull G2
Coglianese Photos
The truth is Mohaymen hasn’t faced that fast of a pace yet, but he’s won all 3 routes rating from 3rd, taking over by stretch time and running away. The Tapit colt is the 6-5 morning line favorite and is ranked number one or number two by most. K.Mac looks to stamp his Ky Derby ticket this weekend.
Fellowship (Awesome of Course) will take him on again, after finishing 3rd to Mohaymen, 6 lengths back in the Holy Bull G2 at 40-1. He had a great closing move after lollygagging, and is set at 30-1 ML in a field that’s almost pure speed. He will run from the rear again and try to pick up the pieces for Stanley Gold.
The newcomers to the Triple Crown scene will be Awesome Banner and Awesome Speed, currently ranked 16th and 17th in Doug’s Double Derby Dozen, Pletcher’s Zulu, and Golden Ray. That gives us a pace profile of E8, EP8, EP7, E6, EP6, and S3 (Fellowship). That’s a lot of heat for a 6 horse field, so expect either a fast pace or some sturdy holding of reins early.
Awesome Banner (Awesome of Course) looks like the best challenger coming in. Undefeated in 3 starts, he continues to improve, increasing in distance. He’s won all 3 going away, by almost 20 total, including the traditional 3yo sprints Hutcheson G2 and Swale G2 for Stanley Gold, all here at Gulfstream Park. His pedigree with Miranda Strands as the X, suggests that this distance won’t be a problem. 7-2 ML.
Awesome Speed (Awesome Again) raced his first 3 in the mid-atlantic, including a stakes win before making his mark at Gulfstream, winning the Mucho Macho Man at 8f in his first route race for Alan Goldberg, with a quick pace on the front end. The dam of Speedy Escape (Aptitude) seems to enhance the classic pedigree for the $335k colt. 4-1 ML.
Which brings us to Todd Pletcher’s $900k Zulu (Bernardini – Temporada by Summer Squall). He’s won two lifetime races, both at Gulfstream, including a maiden and OC75 by 7 lengths, so Todd said let’s throw him in the mix. Again, the pedigree suggests he should compete at two turns. 3-1 ML.
So we have an even money favorite and 3 worthy challengers at 3 or 4 to 1 and in between, and they’ll probably stay in that range at post time. Where do you get value? Well you may not, but with all the speed in this race, you have to figure Fellowship could pick up some pieces at long odds for 3rd again. Stanley Gold has 1/3 of this field and may finish with 2 in the top 3.
Oh, the last challenger is Golden Ray (American Lion), yet another early speeder, at 30-1. I wish I could say he was an OBS champ, but he actually lost the 8.5f OBS champ on poly, finishing 3rd by 3, but that was before an awful flop in a 60k GP stakes where he lost by 18. He finished 24 back from Awesome Speed in the MMM stakes. Not sure what he’s doing here; maybe to ensure a fast pace.
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Palm Beach G3 8.5 turf 3yo
There are other races with a lot more options. The Palm Beach G3 has 14 3yo’s initially entered for the turf route. The favorites are lukewarm, and the field has plenty of speed, with two E8’s, several E and EP 6’s, and an E5. Meantime, the three S0’s are 9-2, 8-1 and 12-1. That will change.
There is no way that Chad Brown’s Converge (Sidney’s Candy) will go off at 8-1, much less anything higher than 5-1, unless all the speed horses scratch, and even then probably not. He has the top power rating, late pace, and performance figure, which was last out finishing 2nd at a $100k stakes by 1.
Kismet’s Heels (Tapit) is the one of the lukewarm favs at 9-2 and may go off as the favorite, after strong closing moves for 2nd place in two 50k maiden races for Pletcher. He’s 2nd in LP and runs S0 style.
The 3rd S0 is JR’s Holiday (Harlan’s Holiday), who has run 8 times so far, but has also won thrice, including his last out, a $100k stakes race at 19-1 for Jose Garaffalo, when he got a decent pace to run at for a turf mile. He’s set at 12-1 despite his stakes credentials. He also finished 3rd in a $75k.
So who is 3rd in LP in this race? 15-1 ML Ousby (Shakespeare) has run 5 times, won twice by 10 and 6 lengths, and finished 2nd by a neck last out in a 60k stakes. Despite his EP6 running style, he has displayed a strong late pace in almost all his races. He could be the one if the pace doesn’t explode.
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Race 10 OCM 62.5n2x 8.5f turf 4up
I’d just like to mention some possible value plays: top EP Three Alarm Fire at 15-1 ML, Johnny Bear at 20-1 and 2nd LP Tapitation at 10-1.
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Race 9 Sandy Springs 100k 8f turf fm4up
Lots of long shot options here depending on scratches etc. Elusive Collection 10-1, Daring Kathy 8-1, Strike Charmer 20-1, Uchenna 15-1, Nisharora 15-1, Faulifer 12-1, Sawyer 15-1. Having said that, the favs will probably sweep, just because I said that.
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Race 8 Canadian Turf G3 8f turf 4up
Can I really get Fredericksburg at 15-1 or Passion for Action at 12-1?
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Race 7 OCM62.5 8.5f turf 4up fm
Miss Atomic Bomb 15-1, Sweetgrass 20-1, Royal Temptress 30-1
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Race 6 Herecomesthebride G3 8.5f turf 3f
Sure, the two low odds favorites are strong, but so are the two 30-1 ML long shots if you look at their last race out. Vieja Luna looked strong as OBS champ going 8.5f on faketrack. Andreya’s Reward finished strong for 9th but only 4l back in her last race, a G3 at 8f.
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Race 5 Davona Dale G2 8f dirt 3f
The oddsmakers seem set on Cathryn Sophia at 6-5, but 5-1 Dearest is also undefeated and looks like a worthy challenger. Both have yet to race two turns. 4-1 Lewis Bay is not only undefeated in 3 but also won a G2 at 9f last out.
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R4 Gulfstream Sprint G3 6.5f dirt 4up
This should be one of the day’s most entertaining races, with a nice mix of speed and off pace runners at sprint. XY Jet deserves to be the favorite, but even money might be a stretch. Candip 6-1 is occasionally as good, and Brothersofthetime at 15-1 has a good closing kick if the pace gets out of hand. Ready For Rye hopes for a muddy track at 9-2, and Viva Majorca at 12-1 would like for a very hot pace up front.
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R3 MSW 60k 8.5f dirt 3yo
Yes, a maiden special weight will be run, as usual, so that trainers can see how their horses might stack up against the FOY field without actually running against them. My money would be on Dig Deep (Candy Ride) at 4-1, who lost to Lookin for a Kiss in his only lifetime race. But Majesto 7-2 and Direct Message 3-1 have the experience and class to beat him.
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Let’s wrap it up for now. The first two races I don’t like that much but I’m sure something whack will happen, having said that. You’re on your own now. Go forth and prosper.
