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Weekend Winners Club

Mar 12 2016

San Felipe, Tampa Bay Derby, Derby Futures Pool 3, Big Cap, Kilroe Mile, Florida Oaks, and more!

Let’s go ahead and do a quick recap of the Gotham G3 last week, just for fun, because as soon as you get my gist, you’ll understand why it’s just for fun. This year’s winner is Shagaf, the post favorite at 6-5. Why is that relevant? Well it really isn’t right now, at least not in Kentucky Derby terms.
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Download Final 2016 Kentucky Derby Grid Here with full field, odds, posts, and over 80 different factors including pedigree, performance, and historical criteria!
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Every year some people get erections for the Gotham Stakes champion, and even sometimes for a Gotham favorite that didn’t even win the stakes. (See Mr. Fantasy, 2009, who ended up with a 3rd place finish after a glorious sprinter career as a 2yo.)
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However, you have to go back 16 years to 2000 to find a Gotham winner that won a Triple Crown race (Red Bullet in the speed favoring Preakness,) and back to 1973 to find a horse that won the Gotham and the Kentucky Derby. That horse was Secretariat, who could beat any horse running today.
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The point is, the Gotham was a nice race, but don’t get too excited about it. Shagaf is not going to win the Kentucky Derby, much less the Triple Crown. He’s a nice looking colt from Bernardini, ran well, moved at the right time, and won the Gotham.
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Hopefully Shagaf will win some other stakes races, but he won’t be winning any roses this year. I’m sorry to kill your buzz on that, but I’m here to give you realism, not blow sunshine. In the meantime, Sunny Ridge finished a disappointing 4th but moved maybe too early and hung in the stretch. He probably won’t be winning roses either.
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So, should we dismiss the Gotham as another prep where no winner has had a serious run for the roses since 1973, over 40 years ago? Yes. We will never have a Big Red, and likewise we are unlikely to have another Gotham champion win the Kentucky Derby. Enough already.
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Let’s move forward to this weekend, where two key races can possibly stamp a ticket to the Kentucky Derby. The Tampa Bay Derby G2 and San Felipe Stakes G2 will both be run on March 12, and there’s a new angle to both of them. The winner will earn 50 Kentucky Derby points and runner up 20 points.
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The otherwise meaningless Tampa Bay Derby has had the unique honor of hosting 2yo and Kentucky Derby champion Street Sense, who already had stamped his ticket to the roses by winning the BC Juvenile, which doesn’t get a horse into the Derby anymore. Before and after 2007 the race has had about as much meaning as the Gotham. But it has meaning this year because of the 50 points.
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Download the Tampa Bay Derby Grid here to follow along.
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    Tampa Bay Derby G2, 8.5f dirt

Awesome Banner comes off a devastating loss in the Fountain of Youth, finishing a badly beaten 5th, after some great wins in the one-turn Hutcheson and Swale stakes. There’s likely a good reason why Stanley Gold didn’t enter him in a two-turn race until February, and most likely he’s not going the distance in this one either, but Tampa would be the place to do it. 8-1 ML.
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Brody’s Cause (5-2) and Riker (8-1), absent from racing since their 3rd and 6th place finishes in the BC Juvenile last year, will make their 3yo debuts in the Tampa. It’s an interesting strategy; either could stamp their Ky Derby ticket with a win at Tampa Bay Downs this weekend, with only one 3yo race. As you can see Brody’s Cause is currently favored for Dale Romans.
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Brodys Cause in Breeders Futurity

Brodys Cause in Breeders Futurity
Photo Anne Eberhardt


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Morning Fire is 15-1 and currently ranks somewhere in our top 30 Kentucky Derby contestants even though we’re not counting after 24. The Keith Nation trainee was first in the Pasco 7f stakes in January but looked like he’d be caught in another furlong.
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Also competing will be Todd Pletcher trainee Destin at 9-2 and Outwork at 12-1, Chad Brown’s Economic Model at 5-1, Graham Motion’s Rafting at 6-1, Barclay Tagg’s Tale of S’avali at 12-1, and George Arnold’s Star Hill at 15-1.
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The undercard at Tampa Bay Downs has some nice races as well, including the traditional maiden special weight for trainers to see how their 3yo’s compare to the TB Derby field without actually running against them in the same race. Arnaud Delacor has the ML favorite King of Diamonds at 3-1. Half of the 13 horses in the field are unraced. That’s 6.5 horses if you’re counting.
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There are several other stakes races including the Challenger 100k, Hillsborough G2 and Florida Oaks G3, and also a maiden special weight for 3yo fillies. Let’s look at the Oaks at least.
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    Florida Oaks G3, 8.5f turf, fillies 3yo.

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You have to like this race, with 14 fillies initially entered, and some nice long shots to choose from. Valueable Charmer is 30-1 ML and will be trying turf for the first time for Gerald Bennett. She’s the only E8 in a field nearly devoid of early speed, and has the top EP rating in the Grid.
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The 2nd highest EP in the field is Pletcher’s Spinamiss at 6-1 ML. Those odds will go down and she might even end up the favorite, which is currently the late running Family Meeting at 3-1. Interestingly, the top LP horse is also Spinamiss.
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I also find good value in Cinder at 30-1 for George Arnold. She broke her maiden in her only turf race, showed nicely in a sloppy sealed race, then had no luck on FakeTrack in the OBS championships. But she likes the turf, and was improving before the OBS debacle.
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Her and Conquest Bebop at 8-1 also have nice EP ratings, along with 7-2 Ava’s Kitten. Baciami Piccola comes off of 3 turf sprints in foreign lands, finishing 1, 2 and 3. The 20-1 ML looks like good value since Bryan Lynch has good ROI in this situation. Late runner Silver Magnolia at 12-1 finished 2nd in the OBS championship.
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    San Felipe G2, 8.5f dirt

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The San Felipe Stakes however has produced some interesting California champions, most recently Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner California Chrome in 2014. Before that, Pioneer of the Nile narrowly lost the Derby to long shot Mine That Bird. Let’s look at some other San Felipe Grads.
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Point Given and Fusaichi Pegasus also both won the San Felipe and two legs of the Triple Crown. Free House did well in the Triple Crown races. Medaglia D’oro ended up one of the best race horses of all time, after finishing 4th in the Kentucky Derby after a rough start, getting edged by long shot Sarava in the Belmont Stakes, and finishing 2nd place twice in some excellent BC Classic fields.
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Bertrando, the excellent sprinter Artax, Prime Timber, and Sunday Silence also grace the historic winners chart of the San Felipe Stakes. This is a very relevant stakes race and has been for decades. I’m sorry that it took this long to post, but the Socal slackers didn’t have stats ready until last night.
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The San Felipe G2 field is short but strong as usual. Exaggerator, ranked 9 in our Derby Dozen, finished a strong 2nd to Nyquist at the San Vicente going 7f at Santa Anita. Before that, he held on by a neck for a win in the Delta Jackpot G3 last year for Keith Desormeux. It was Nyquist’s first race of the year and both were on their game. He may be the favorite but is 5-2 ML.
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The actual morning line favorite is Mor Spirit at 2-1, who we currently have ranked #4 in the Dozen. He devastated the field in the Los Alamitos G1 Futurity last year before winning the Bob Lewis G3 in his 3yo debut. The Eskendereya colt is looking very strong for Baffert right now.
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Crashing the party will be Smokey Image at 7-2, who so far has run in Derby-pointless races, but almost quietly racking up $435k in stakes earnings for Carla Gaines. The Southern Image colt is undefeated in 6 races, including 5 stakes races after the maiden, most recently the Cal Cup Derby, which was also at Santa Anita. He looks excellent coming in and needs Derby points badly.
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The field is only seven likely because others are afraid to take on the three just mentioned, however Jerry Hollendorfer will take his chances here with I Will Score at 8-1, Clifford Cise with Danzing Candy at 7-2 has won 2 straight after losing to Uncle Lino in his maiden voyage. Lino finished between Mor Spirit and I Will Score for 2nd in the Bob Lewis.
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Santa Anita also has a huge day of racing, including the traditional MSW’s for 3yo and 3f, the Frank Kilroe G1 on turf, the San Carlos sprint for olders, and the Santa Anita Handicap G1, otherwise known as the BIG CAP! We don’t even have time to get to that, but might post a grid for it later if time allows.
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I should reiterate here, as I stated in the latest Derby Double Dozen, that Nyquist may only run one more prep race which is likely to be the Florida Derby. Doug O’neill apparently has the utmost confidence in him, running him in only one points race this year.
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Also, we’re still anticipating the 3yo debut of Swipe at some point. He ended last year with a bone problem but Desormeux wants him back on the Triple Crown Trail at some point. The nicely bred Birdstone colt finished 2nd to Nyquist in his last 4 races before his injury.
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ONE MORE REAL IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT.
The Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 3 is open this weekend, and actually includes quite a few horses competing in the Tampa Bay Derby and San Felipe as individual entries. Remember that the odds are only locked in once the pool closes at the end of each day. This weekend’s contenders:
Brody’s Cause 15-1.
Danzing Candly 50-1
Destin 49-1
Economic Model 94-1
Exaggerator 19-1
Mor Spirit 15-1
Riker 99-1
Smokey Image 12-1
Uncle Lino 99-1
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So if you feel like making a play on any of these, feel free to wait until after their prep race. In fact, leg 3 of the pool will be on Sunday and offer a new set of odds.
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Mohaymen leads the field at 3-1, Nyquist is at 5-1, and Shagaf checks in as a first time pool entrant at 20-1. The field of all other 3yo’s not listed as a single entry, is currently not favored for the first time, at 8-1.
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The Derby Futures Pool Grid will be posted here at some point today so you can compare the performance figures. It will also be updated Sunday (hopefully) to reflect the Saturday results. This is dependent on the data provider.
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Be patient, it’s not up yet but we’re working on it. We had a lot of content to deliver, including 8 Saturday Grids for paying members, and the Futures Pool doesn’t close until 10pm, so you have plenty of time to check back, and the pool is open tomorrow as well so bring your swimsuit.
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The Run for the Roses is starting to unfold and it shall be very interesting.
We’ll see what happens along the way.
But Tampa Bay Downs first call to post is happening right now, so I’ve got to get this stuff out.
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As usual, if you want to want to get the Grid for every important race and track, those options are here.
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Good luck on your Kentucky Derby Trail!
Dalton
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