Weekend Winners Club

Monday, March 14
Churchill Downs
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Download Final 2016 Kentucky Derby Grid Here with full field, odds, posts, and over 80 different factors including pedigree, performance, and historical criteria!
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The new Double Derby Dozen has been updated, and unlike other outfits, we didn’t freak out and flip flop everything based on two races last weekend. In fact, our top 5 didn’t change at all, not even the order. But there were some changes beneath that and rightly so. Nyquist stays number one.
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Nyquist geared down in San Vicente G2
Benoit Photo

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Here’s a more in depth review of last weekend’s 3yo prep races including the Tampa Bay Derby and San Felipe Stakes. We’re in the Kentucky Derby Championship Series now, so the Prep races are worth 50-20-10-5 for the top 4, and will go up to 100-40-20-10 for most, later this month.

I really like the way they did it this year, by not letting any single horse rest on the laurels of a couple races they ran last year or a nice finish in the BC Juvenile, which is run 6 months before the Kentucky Derby. This year they need to earn Derby points, and March and April is the time to do it.

The Tampa Bay Derby was one such race where two horses from the BC Juvenile came out of hiding for the first time this year. Unfortunately, Riker and favored Brody’s Cause finished well beaten, 6th and 7th, out of the money and without any Derby points.

Frontrunning Riker couldn’t hang with a slow pace at a speed favoring track, and his Kentucky Derby hopes are all but over. Brody’s Cause at least had an excuse, running from the rear and never catching up to the gaggling pace on the front. Either will have to run again to earn points.

Give a lot of credit to winner Destin however, proving he was not a fluke in the Sam Davis, coming from off the pace and holding on during the stretch for a solid win. Outwork was also solid his 3rd time out, holding on for 2nd after setting the early pace. The rest were simply well-beaten.

Moving on to the San Felipe, which has produced dozens of champions in Triple Crown races. The Felipe had Mor Spirit, Exaggerator, and Smokey Image as the top 3 public betting choices, followed by Danzing Candy, who would issue a lesson in front running victories.

Danzing Candy moved to the lead early in the first turn, 2 wide to overtake Uncle Lino, and held on to some very solid fractions of 23, 46, and 1.11, holding off all challenges during the stretch for a 2 length victory.

No real problems for Mor Spirit, who always rates from off the pace and makes a late run. He was a little too late this time, and perhaps ran out of real estate, but closed from 5th for a solid 2nd place finish over Exagerrator, who also closed well but hung a bit in stretch, getting passed by Mor Spirit.

Uncle Lino faded as expected, as did I Will Score, who may never score again, Beavis. But the most disappointing was Smokey Image, who was never really in the race, and consequently suffered his first defeat after 6 lifetime races, including 5 stakes races which he won handily.

So the Derby Double Dozen will change this week. Danzing Candy has proven himself worthy of a much higher ranking. Mor Spirit’s ranking did not change, because he was consistent as usual and didn’t really fail, closing well for 2nd.

Destin and Shagaf will also make the board for the first time, but at this site we don’t go overboard on any horse winning a Derby Prep, especially when it’s in a typically meaningless prep with a slow pace.

Shagaf got a Beyer of 87, but DRF is showing that Destin and Danzing Candy both got 100 on the Beyer rating. Of course, our performance figures won’t be out until the next data files come out containing the particular horses. Both colts deserve credit and were ranked.

Also as aforementioned, we here don’t flip flop all of our rankings every time a Kentucky Derby prep is run. In fact, our top 5 does not change at all this week. Outside of that, some changes have been made, based on the analysis given above.

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