Weekend Winners Club

Meydan Course at Dubai, UAE
Friday, March 25, 2016
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You may know by now, although it’s not much advertised on mainstream TV, that the Dubai World Cup day is this weekend, with 9 races all worth $1 million or more in purse money, making it the most expensive race day in the world each year.
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Because of the money, this sort of overshadows a big day at the Fairgrounds, but Dubai’s card will wrap up before the Fairgrounds really gets going. The Fairgrounds card is worth much less but still good money, highlighted by the Louisiana Derby G2, worth $1 million. Also on the card are the Fairgrounds Oaks G2, New Orleans Handicap G2, and several other nice stakes races.
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At Dubai, 4 of the races are worth $1 million each, 3 of them worth $2 million each including the UAE Derby, the Dubai Turf and Sheema Classic worth $6 million each, and finally the Dubai World Cup worth $10 million. That’s $32 million US dollars offered up in purse money by Meydan race course. That’s what oil money can do.
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I’ve never found an easy way to get fractions for the all the foreign races, and the US data providers don’t have them either. However, the courier-journal is offering free pp’s which are in a DRF-type format, which may actually come from DRF. Notice that they don’t have the fractions for the overseas horses either.

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If you don’t like scrolling up and down the page and want to download it and/or print it out, get FoxIt free PDF reader, which will enable you to print to PDF from most browsers including Chrome and Firefox. The races will be televised by TVG. OK that’s enough free advertising for now, just trying to help you out.
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It’s an afternoon/night racing card in Dubai, which is 8 hours ahead of the eastern US, so the first post is at 7:45am ET. The UAE Derby will be at 9:45am ET, and the Dubai World Cup will wrap things up at 1pm ET. These times are theoretical, as they sometimes take their time between races. Official race cards from Dubai for World Cup Day here.

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The UAE Derby is the first race in the Kentucky Derby Championship Series http://www.horseracebetwin.com/picks/2016-kentucky-derby-championship-series-race-results/ worth 100 points for the winner (40-20-10 for 2/3/4). One US horse, Frank Conversation, will take on 6 foreign horses from different countries. The Doug O’neill trainee by Quality Road has won the Cal Derby and El Camino Real Derby and is listed at 8-1 ML.
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Believe it or not, the favorite will not be either of Sheikh Maktoum’s thoroughbreds. He brings filly Vale Dori, a G1 winner from Argentina who finished 2nd in the UAE Oaks earlier this month, at 9-2 ML, and Lazzam who is stakes placed at UAE, at 30-1ML.
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The current favorite is UAE Oaks winner Polar River, who has won all 4 lifetime races, including the UAE 1000 Guineas. The Congrats filly is the only UAE native in the field.
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In the World Cup, the favorites will be US stars California Chrome 3-2 and Frosted 2-1. If you were wondering where they’ve been, they’ve been prepping in Dubai along with Travers winner Keen Ice at 20-1 ML, who finished 7th in the Al Maktoum Challenge G1 earlier this month and may not like the track.
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The favorites’ credentials speak for themselves. Kentucky Derby champion Cali Chrome finished 2nd in the Dubai World Cup last year, and is fresh off winning a $150k tuneup at Meydan last month. Frosted won the Al Maktoum Challenge G2 last month at Meydan, so both are looking great.
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Hoppertunity joins the US contingent at 12-1 ML and looks good as a fresh shipper by Baffert. Candy Boy at 50-1 is the last US horse and has been apparently stuck in Dubai, unraced since a 4th place finish, 10 lengths back in last year’s World Cup.
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Sheikh Maktoum will offer up a pair in this as well. Mubtaahij at 15-1, last seen in the USA finishing 4th in the Belmont Stakes after running 8th in the Kentucky Derby, finished 4th in the Maktoum Challenge G1. Special Fighter, also at 15-1, was the winner of that race, but has a habit of finishing 6th after each win.
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But we know that the US contingent will dominate this race as they normally do. If you can’t catch the next flight to Dubai or pay over $1000 a night to stay there, just get up early and follow along at TVG, where you can also bet the races. Twinspires usually shows the races as well.
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Moving back to stateside, the Louisiana Derby is the big race of the day, worth $1 million, and it’s the first US race on the Derby series worth 100 points. Either Gun Runner 3-1 or Mo Tom will be the post time favorite, with Greenpointcrusader at 7-2 ML. Follow along with the free Fairgrounds Louisiana Derby Grid here:

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Gun Runner started off his year by winning the Risen Star G2 on Feb.16 at the Fairgrounds. He had a good trip and great ride, moving for the stretch lead and holding on by ½. Mo Tom stayed in the rear of the hot pace, then began flying down the stretch. He got cut off and checked sharply, but nonetheless ran on and finished 3rd 1 length back, but certainly would have won without the incident.
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Interestingly, the 2nd place finisher in the Risen Star, is at 10-1 ML. He had a great trip and made the most of it, closing well to almost nip the winner. It looks like he’d have passed the winner with another furlong. This race doesn’t appear to have a very fast pace on paper, with only one true front runner.
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Candy My Boy 15-1 set the hot pace in the Risen Star and faded to 4th, but held on in 2 previous races where the pace was slow. Battery 10-1 will be stalking him and looked good in his last race but has no stakes experience yet. Dazzling Gem 12-1 will also press the pace, but it will be his first stakes race too.
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Greenpointcrusader is also someone who will press the pace, maybe more so than Gun Runner. He normally hangs back a few, but found himself on a dawdling lead in the Holy Bull G2 on Jan.30. But he couldn’t hold on to the late surge from Mohaymen, who most have ranked as the #1 3yo. It was his first race of the year and he’s expected to improve.
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Tom’s Ready and Uncle Walter both looked good coming into the Risen Star after 2nd and 3rd place finishes in the Lecomte G3, but they fell flat. Tom was not ready and Walter finished last.
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The best value looks to be newcomer Battery, who should be close to a reasonable pace and according to Pletcher is ready for stakes company. Candy My Boy could also win if they let him dawdle and Torres can keep him relaxed. Forevamo could get another nice trip and prove he was no fluke.
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Keep up with all the actions, analysis, and updates here as usual.

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The run for the roses is definitely heating up this weekend, and we’ll keep you informed on everything you need to know.
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As usual, if you want to want to get the Grid for every important race and track, those options are here.

Good luck on your Kentucky Derby Trail!
Dalton

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