Weekend Winners Club

Friday, April 1 2016
Gulfstream Park

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There are two real big items this weekend: The Florida Derby G1 and Kentucky Derby Futures Pool #4 (Grid posted here). The Pool’s top two horses are Mohaymen at 7-2 ML and Nyquist at 8-1. Of further interest is that Mohaymen is at 1-1 ML and Nyquist at 6-5 in the Florida Derby.
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Now this is the first time that I can remember the top 2 ranked 3yo’s facing off in a prep race before the Kentucky Derby, but it has happened before. Secretariat and Sham both raced in the Wood Memorial, finishing 3rd and 2nd to Angle light before finishing. 1-2 in the Ky Derby and Preakness.
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Why are they both running at Gulfstream tomorrow? For one, it’s a $1 million purse that undefeated Mohaymen has been pointed to all year by Mclaughlin and connections. Nyquist is eligible for a $1 million bonus if he wins the Fla Derby, due to being a Fasig Tipton sales grad, so it only makes sense.
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There are a handful of other 3yo’s in training right now that are also eligible for the $1 million bonus, including Mor Spirit, currently ranked #4 in our Derby Dozen. However, to show how little hope any of these connections see in beating Mohaymen or Nyquist, none of the other 8 in the field are part of the bonus eligible group.
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The Florida Derby Grid is posted here if you want to check out the rest of the field and Gulfstream races on Saturday. Most of the horses in the field look like they don’t belong, and probably don’t, and are running for 3rd or 4th place money and a chance to pick up 10 or 20 Derby points.
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One such colt is Fellowship 15-1 ML, who has finished a well beaten 3rd to Mohaymen twice in a row now, both times at good odds. In his most recent, the Fountain of Youth, we told you he would probably pick up the pieces for 3rd in a field that was almost pure speed, which he did at 20-1.
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The truth is, other than the addition of Nyquist, the rest of this 10 horse field isn’t much stronger. Majesto 20-1 will try to prove he belongs after breaking his maiden in his 5th try. Front running Takeittotheedge 20-1 looked very strong in his debut, breaking his maiden first out at GP last month by 7 lengths.
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Chovanes 30-1 will also try to take it on the front end, and looked good for the first time in his career, breaking his maiden in a claimer at GP in Feb in his 4th try. One thing these 3 newcomers have in common; they all won their first race last time out.
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It doesn’t look like a great betting race, unless you have some insider info that one of the two favorites is not in good shape. But it will be a heck of a watching race if they’re both sound. I’ll probably play a semi-straight super of 4-9/4-9/2-7/2-7 or such just for fun. Takeittotheedge looks like the newcomer to cash in, and Fellowship can finish 3rd or 4th.
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In other news, I did have a dream last night that Mohaymen won and Nyquist finished 4th, and I was quite disappointed. However, I also dreamt in the same night that I slept with my ex, so I don’t put too much credence in dreams. It was a disappointing dream night.
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The Florida Derby is the last race on an excellent 14 race card that includes 7 graded stakes races! The Grid posted for free today includes the entire Saturday card for Gulfstream, so make sure you download this valuable tool.
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Backtracking from the Fla Derby:
R13: Pan Am G2
The top late runner in this 12f turf race is Twilight Eclipse at 6-1 ML. 2nd in LP is Montclair 12-1.
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R12: Honey Fox G2
Chalk is sound but try key in some value with Elusive Collection 10-1, Celestine 8-1, EB Ryder 20-1.
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R11: Orchid G3
Lone E runner Quiet Kitten is at 8-1 for the 11f race; top late runner Crisolles is EP6 at 5-1; top closer Songofficeandfire is 10-1
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R10: Sir Shackleton 100k
Looks chalky and only 7f, but top late runners are Brothersofthetime 6-1 and Squadron A 10-1 who lost rider last time out.
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R9: MSW3
The traditional MSW where connections will see how their 3yo’s stack up to the Fla Derby field without getting trounced by the top 3yo’s. Just for fun, throw in value with Chad Brown’s Active Management at 12-1 and Reid Nagle’s Fire on Fire 30-1.
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R8: Appleton G3
Top early runners Sky Captain 10-1 and Reporting Star 6-1 in a field devoid of speed.
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R7: GP Oaks G2
Ghostzapper filly Go Maggie Go 6-1 makes her 2nd start for Dale Romans.
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R6: MSW3 turf
Mark Casse’s Conquest Stormy is 5-1 and top LP but will likely be favored at post.
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R5: Skipaway G3
Valid 1-1 is a valid favorite. Only value maybe top plodder/closer Hesinfront at 12-1
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There you have the stakes lineup value picks and long shot specials in a nutshell for Saturday’s Gulfstream card. My guess is one of them will win and several others will hit the board, and people will complain. If I had it my way, long shots would win every race, but they don’t.
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I promised at the beginning that we would cover the 2016 Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 4, which you may download the Grid for here. We talked about the top 2 but there are others. Follow the link given above for a brief analysis and download the Grid, no need to repeat everything here.
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As mentioned in that article, if you want to bet on Nyquist, today would be the day, but he’s only running at 5-1 right now. Mohaymen at 7-2 is not a deal either. Maybe wait to see which one loses and bet him on Sat.
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In other news, the Spiral Stakes G3 will also be be run at Turfway Park as a Derby prep worth 50 points. I don’t see any Animal Kingdom in this year’s edition, as usual.
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Keep up with all the action, analysis, and updates here as always.

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The run for the roses is definitely heating up this weekend, and we’ll keep you informed on everything you need to know.
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As usual, if you want to want to get the Grid for every important race and track, those options are here.

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Good luck on your Kentucky Derby Trail!
Dalton
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