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Weekend Winners Club

Apr 08 2016

Wood, Blue Grass, Santa Anita Derby, Big Kentucky Derby Championship Series Weekend

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Download Final 2016 Kentucky Derby Grid Here with full field, odds, posts, and over 80 different factors including pedigree, performance, and historical criteria!
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My friends, it is a big weekend in the Road to the Roses this weekend. The Wood Memorial, Blue Grass Stakes, and Santa Anita Derby will all be run on Saturday, within an hour of each other. Each race offers a $1 million purse.
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In addition, Aqueduct, Keeneland and Santa Anita are all providing great undercard racing for other categories in the form of high paying graded stakes races such as the featured Carter G1, Bay Shore G3, and Gazelle G2 at Aqueduct.
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Keenland offers the Ashland G1, Madison G1, Shakertown G2, and Commonwealth G3 in addition to the featured Blue Grass G1. Santa Anita offers the SA Oaks G1, Providencia G3, Thunder Road G3, and a couple of other listed stakes. In all, it’s an amazing weekend for horse racing.
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We updated the Derby Double Dozen and One this week so you can see who stands where, as nine of our top 25 ranked horses are running in either the Santa Anita Derby, Wood, or Blue Grass.

In fact, 3 of the top 7 are racing against each other in the SA Derby.
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How are we going to sort this all out? First of all, Nyquist, Gun Runner, and Mohaymen are the top 3, and all locks to run for the roses unless something goes awry. Yes we demoted Mohaymen to 3rd after having him at 2nd for a couple of weeks.
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This isn’t a knee-jerk reaction studio here. Nyquist has been #1 all year, and Gun Runner just moved up to 2nd based on Mohaymen’s mishap in the Fla Derby. But one race doesn’t make or break a horse. Gun Runner had to win two important preps in a row, and Mohaymen had to finally lose one, for them to be in their current positions of 2 and 3.
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Without further ado, let’s get to these important 3yo races. They begin with the Bay Shore G3 at 4:52 ET, which used to be a 3yo prep but it earns no Ky Derby (KD) points. Those running are 3yo’s looking for earnings, unless they had enough KD points to get in already, which none of them do.
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That will be followed by the Wood Memorial G1 at 5:30 ET. The ML favorite is Gotham winner Shagaf, followed by Tampa Bay Derby runner up Outwork and AQU OC80 winner Matt King Coal. Flexibility looked good after finishing 2nd in 2 G2’s to Mohaymen, then winning the Jerome G3 convincingly before a disappointing 4th in the Withers, behind Adventist.
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Flexibility won the Jerome G3

Flexibility won the Jerome G3


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Adventist is running his 4th lifetime race after finishing 3rd in the Withers and Gotham. The rest will need to prove they belong. But 8-1 ML on Flexibility is nice since he has the top LP rating according to the Grid, just failing to close on a particularly slow pace in the Gotham. Adventist also runs well late at 10-1 ML.
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Let’s get to the other KD preps before getting to other undercard races, but the Wood, Carter, Bay Shore, Gazelle, and other Aqueduct undercard races are free in this Saturday’s Grid. The lone E horse in the 7f Carter by the way, is E8 Green Gratto at 12-1 ML…
Download Aqueduct Saturday Grid including Wood, Carter, and all other races here.
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Moving on to the Blue Grass G1 at 6:30 pm ET, this race has been hit or miss for years as far as producing Kentucky Derby champions. This year’s rendition produces a field of 14 who think they belong in the run for the roses. Discouraging is the fact that the ML favorite is Zulu, in his 4th lifetime start after finishing 2nd to Mohaymen in the Fountain of Youth.
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The 2nd ML choice is Brody’s Cause, who finished 3rd in the BC Juvenile before starting off his year with a clunker 7th place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby. He looks to follow in the footsteps of Tom’s Ready, who wasn’t ready for his 3yo season at first, but then secured his KD position with a 2nd in the Louisiana Derby.
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Donegal Moon is listed at 5-1 and was impressive in a 1 mile allowance last out, after 3 disappointing graded stakes races, in which he finished 5th, lost the rider, then finished 5th. But he did win the alw51k-n1x by 13 lengths, hence the support here.
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Early runner Cards of Stone also won his last out, an OC75n1x at a mile by 13 lengths and is at 20-1 ML. The top late runner according to the Grid, is My Man Sam at 10-1. He finished a strong closing 2nd to Matt King Coal in a OC80n1x last out. Others will have to prove they belong.
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Over on the left coast, at about 6:45 pm ET, the Santa Anita Derby will feature Danzing Candy and Mor Spirit at low odds. Danzing Candy stole the San Felipe G2 on the front end while setting legitimate fractions, winning his 3rd straight race, and earning enough points to get into the KD. However, he’s only raced 4 times and needs the experience.
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Mor Spirit ran from behind and couldn’t quite catch the front runner in the San Felipe, but won the Los Al Futurity G1 and Bob Lewis G3 impressively before that loss. Nonetheless, he improved in the effort as he normally does.
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Exaggerator, posted at 4-1, finished 3rd in the Felipe after an uncharacteristic late running effort in which he got bumped around early. He normally runs close to the lead as a presser and finished only 1 length behind champion Nyquist in the San Vicente. He’s borderline on KD points this weekend.
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Smokey Image, 15-1, looked excellent going into the San Felipe at 3-1 odds after winning all 6 career races including 5 listed stakes, however, he weakened in the stretch and finished 18 lengths back in 5th. It was his slowest race since his maiden debut, so they will give him another shot.
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Denman’s Call and Iron Rob will try to stretch out from solid sprint careers so far, and Uncle Lino will attempt to prove that his 4th place San Felipe finish was not the norm. Others will have to prove they belong in graded stakes company.
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That’s it for the Saturday analysis, we just have to end it at some point without analyzing every stakes race on every card for you. That requires a lot of time.
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Keep up with all the action, analysis, and updates here as always.

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The run for the roses is in high gear this weekend, and we’ll keep you informed on everything you need to know.
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As usual, if you want to want to get the Grid for every important race and track, those options are here.

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Good luck on your Kentucky Derby Trail!
Dalton
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