Weekend Winners Club

Friday, April 15
Keeneland Park
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Download Final 2016 Kentucky Derby Grid Here with full field, odds, posts, and over 80 different factors including pedigree, performance, and historical criteria!
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It’s another big weekend in horse racing as Oaklawn ends its spring meet with a bang, and the Kentucky Derby Championship series prep season comes to an end. The big race of the weekend in North America is the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn, worth 100-40-20-10 in Kentucky Derby points.
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Keeneland hosts the Maker’s Mark 46 Mile G1 today for 4 and up on the turf. It’s not real easy to like the ML favorite Heart to Heart at odds of 3-1. It’s easier to like Tourist at 7-2, an EP5 who actually has the best EP rating. The E8 Shining Copper doesn’t do it for me. Of the 3, I’d take Tourist.
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Looking deeper, the pole position horse is 12-1 and has the best LP rating in the field of 9. Are You Kidding Me? He’s been on a roll for the past year, winning 3 G2 races, 2 on turf, and finishing no worse 4th, 2 lengths back during that span of 6 races. He comes off a G2 win on poly at Woodbine.
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Reload is a P3 that is 2nd in LP, but looks even better with odds of 6-1, coming off a G3 win at Tampa. One that people might let get away at nice odds is Itsaknockout at ML 6-1. Coming off a couple of good G1 and G2 dirt races, the Lemon Drop Kid colt could take to turf nicely.
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Download Keeneland Friday 4/15 Grid here.
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Oaklawn will ramp its weekend today also with the Apple Blossom H, a G1 for fm/4 and up. Unfortunately, it’s only a 6 horse field, and the only tow early runners, the EP types, are favored at low odds. The value plays would be Forever Unbridled at 6-1 and Call Pat at 9-2, if a pace to run at somehow presents itself.
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Keeneland and Oaklawn both have a slew of graded stakes races coming up on Saturday, including the Jenny Wiley G1, Ben Ali G3, and Lexington Stakes G3 at Keeneland, and the Northern Spur, Instant Racing, and Oaklawn H at Oaklawn. Los Alamitos will have the Los Angeles G3 and Bertrando.
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If it were possible for us to cover every race without getting paid for it, I would gladly do so. But let’s just stick with the Arkansas Derby G1 for now. Cupid is the favorite at 2-1 and for good reason. He won the Rebel G2 here handily in his 4th start, the race after he broke his maiden in his first route race.
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Follow along with Saturday’s Oaklawn Grid posted here
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The Tapit colt showed a lot of versatility in his last two races, rating behind a slow pace after a bobbled start in the maiden to win by 5 going away. In the Rebel, he set his own honest fractions in a much faster pace (by 2 seconds) and still won while separating. He doesn’t need the points for the Derby, but Baffert would like to earn the money. If he’s beaten in the stretch, the reins will go slack.
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Of the other 11 contestants, 7 of them have some Derby points, but none have enough to get in. That’s why they’re racing this weekend! Whitmore and Dazzling Gem are in the best position in the points race, needing just 20 to get in, which they could do with a 3rd or better finish. Can they do it? Maybe, but they will need to if they want a Derby ticket.
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Dazzling Gem 12-1 is tied for top EP rating, and there isn’t much speed in the race (profile E7, EP7, EP6, EP6). The EP7 held on for 3rd in his 3rd lifetime race, the Louisiana Derby, and looks to set near the lead and improve again this week. Without much speed contention, he could easily finish top 3.
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Whitmore may have more work to do since he starts slow, but he does end up pressing the pace by the half and has one of the top EP ratings. His P3 style has succeeded in getting him 2nd place in the Southwest G3 and Rebel G2. At 9-2 ML, he could be the 2nd public betting choice and for good reason.
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Suddenbreakingnews, Discreetness, and Creator are in the 10 point category and will need a 1st or 2nd finish to run for the roses. Suddenbreakingnews came from way back as usual to beat Whitmore in the Southwest, but he couldn’t crack the top 4 in the Rebel, despite the pace being legit.
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Discreetness has beaten nobody of note in his 8 lifetime races except for Suddenbreakingnews, who he held off in a mile race in November. Creator hasn’t beaten anyone either, but did finish 3rd in the Rebel. Both of these late runners look compromised in this position without the right ride.
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Unbridled Outlaw has all of 2 points and wants to prove he belongs after a 2nd place 3yo debut this year, and wants to prove he’s better than the 12th place in the BC Juvenile. As one of the 4 early runners, at 10-1, he’s got some potential.
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Gettysburg is the E7 and comes off a 2nd place in the Sunland Festival of Racing stakes to Collected, who’s favored in the Lexington. He probably won’t have it all his own way on the lead, as there will be some pressure, but with improvement he could finish ITM.
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There are high hopes for American Pioneer as well in his 3rd lifetime race, fresh off a maiden win. I think what little speed there is in this race may dominate. The top 4 will be in some order, Cupid, Dazzling Gem, Gettysburg, and Unbridled Outlaw or American Pioneer.
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Back at Keeneland, the Lexington Stakes offers some Ky Derby points on a much smaller scale. It’s worth 10-4-2-1, or about 1/10th of the Arkansas Derby. Some nice horses will be competing in it, but none of them will get into the Ky Derby. Why? Because they can’t, even if they win.
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Collected is favored at 2-1 as mentioned, but Baffert took him off the Derby trail in March, moving him into a no-point race in Sunland that he won over Gettysburg. This is more likely a prep for the Preakness for he and the rest of them, since the purse is relatively small at $150k.
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Swipe is also favored at 9-5, in his first race since going off trail with injury all year so far. However, he did finish 2nd 4 times straight last year to 2yo champion and top ranked 3yo Nyquist, including a great closing finish in the BC Juvenile. He will be pointed to at least the Belmont if not the Preakness also.
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Riker only finished 4 lengths back in the BC Juvenile, but delivered a clunker in his 3yo debut at the Tampa Bay Derby, 12 lengths out. The frontrunner will try to qualify for the Preakness. Direct Message looked solid breaking his maiden at Gulfstream last month.
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Keep up with all the action, analysis, and updates here as always.

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The Derby Championship Series ends this weekend, and we’ll keep you informed on everything you need to know. For non-subscribers, the Kentucky Derby Grid © will be available here starting next week after the Arkansas and Lexington are run and all the preps are finalized. For subscribers, it’s included.

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If you want to want to get the Grid for every important race and track, those options are here.

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Good luck on your Kentucky Derby Trail!
Dalton
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