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Weekend Winners Club

Apr 23 2016

$1.25 Million Charles Town Classic G2 Today: Analysis and Free Grid

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Saturday, April 23
Charles Town Races (and Hollywood Casino)
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Well the Kentucky Derby Championship season is over, and it was a trip. Different horses winning and placing in the major preps every week, earning their Derby ticket at the right time, while bouncing others out of the mix. All of the horses in the final top 20 had to run in a major March or April prep to get their spot.
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The Double Derby Dozen (because there will be 20 getting in, and we don’t know who yet) will be updated soon, so you’ll want to take a look at that. Hopefully it will be updated today.

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Also, we’re working around the clock on the Kentucky Derby Grid, with over 70 factors to choose and aggregate however you please. That will be available sometime next week, but lock in to purchase anytime because we only sell a limited amount to non-members.

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More on the Derby next week as we issue the first version of this year’s Derby Grid, but this weekend we have plenty of good racing going on. Small tracks like it when the Derby prep season ends, so they can climb out of the shadows and offer some stakes racing to the public.
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There are 26 listed stakes races around the country today, with the usual graded race at Keeneland, but others like LosAl and Middleburg offering a graded stakes. Big days of racing also at Charles Town and Turf Paradise, who have multiple stakes races. Subscribers get the Grid for all of these tracks today.

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Today we’ll focus on Charles Town, and no I don’t say their full six word name because I’m not paid to do that, and would rather write a long run on sentence just to explain it. What I will tell you is that CT has 7 stakes races, all worth $50 or more, culminating in the G2 Charles Town Classic.
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The highlight of the small town track’s year, the CT Classic is worth $1.25 million! (pinky on mouth) in purse money. It features 11 of the top 4 and up horses in America running 9f on dirt, 7 of which are geldings, unfortunately for them.
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One such gelding, 6yo S’marvelous is cycling into his best form ever, coming off a slew of optional claiming races to win the New Orleans H G2 last month at 20-1, scoring his highest PF ever and the highest in this field of 102.5 for Michael Maker. In a field without much speed, his top EP rating should come in handy. His morning line is 10-1 but that will go considerably lower.
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S'Marvelous wins New Orleans Handicap G2 by 2

S’Marvelous wins New Orleans Handicap G2 by 2


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Stanford 9-2 ML, can run early with the best of them, as he put up some nice pf’s in two 2nd place finishes in G2 miles this year. He probably won’t run his best race at 9f, but he was a Ky Derby prospect last year, finishing 2nd in the 9f La Derby. Pletcher spotted him well though, an EP7 in a field with no 8’s and no E type runners. Castellano could find himself loose on the lead.
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Also wanting to take advantage of a moderate early pace will be Donworth at 3-1 ML, coming off a disappointing Big Cap G1 where he was the victim of a hotly contested pace for 10f. He comes from post 4 just outside S’marvelous and will be part of the early pack, and in more appropriate company.
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Running just inside of Stanford at post 6 will be International Star at 8-1 ML, the horse that beat him in the La Derby last year and didn’t go on to Louisville either. He runs from a few lengths off the pace normally, but won’t have time to lollygag like he did in the NOH, running too late to catch S’marvelous.
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Page McKenney will be getting some attention at 6-1, especially from the local circuit supporters, who finished 3rd at 33-1 in last year’s edition. He’s a mid-atlantic runner who’s on a 4 win streak, winning 5 of 6, all stakes races, only losing one by a nose. Another mid pack runner, he does have the 2nd best EP rating in the Grid, and also happens to have the top LP rating.
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Imperative is at 7-2 and has the same running style, with Mike Smith aboard to determine the right time to move. He’s raced in 10 straight graded races, including 5 G1’s and 4 G2’s, with 4 2nd place finishes, including last year’s CT Classic at 31-1. So it’s Imperative that we mention the Bernardini gelding who recently was 4th in the Big Cap.
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Hard Aces at 8-1 is a nice quality horse, coming off a 2nd place in the Big Cap where he had a nice close but not enough goods to put away Melatonin. He comes from off the pace and as such was beaten by both Imperative and Donworth in the prior race, when a more moderate pace presented itself.
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Almost on nobody’s radar is sprinter Sonny Inspired at 20-1. He came from the rear pack attempting to close on a slow pace in the Gen George G3, but finished 3rd to Page McKenny, who rated much closer in the 7f race. This will be his first race at a mile or longer, so he figures to be near the front.
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My top 5 for the super here are Stanford 9-2, S’marvelous 10-1, Impreative 7-2, and Page Mckenny 6-1 or International Star 8-1, giving some nice value in there at least for the morning line. Donworth of course is a contender but I’d like to get a super without one of the two favorites in it.
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All other stakes races on the card include but are not limited to:
• Charles Town Classic (gr. II), $1,250,000g, 4&up, 9f.
• Coin Collector S, $50,000a, 3yo, 4.5f.
• Confucius Say S, $50,000a, 3&up, 7f.
• It’s Binn Too Long S, $50,000a, 3yo f, 4.5f.
• Original Gold S, $50,000a, 3&up f/m, 7f.
• Robert Hilton Memorial, $100,000g, 3yo, 7f.
• Sugar Maple S , $150,000g, 4&up f/m, 7f.
The Grid for all Charles Town races today is available to the general public today for download here, as a courtesy weekend Grid for those who want to try it out or just follow occasionally.

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If you’re interested in the Kentucky Derby Grid or other packages and options, just visit this page and see what you can find.

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As I finish this up, first post is about to start at Charles Town, and there’s a Pick 4 to attend to, so let’s wrap it up and get racing! Stakes races start at 2pm ET.
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Keep up with all the action, analysis, and updates here as always.

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Good luck this weekend!
Dalton
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If you want to want to get the Grid for every important race and track, those options are here.

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