Weekend Winners Club

Friday, May 6, 2016
Churchill Downs
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Happy Derby and Oaks weekend!
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Today is the day before the coveted Kentucky Derby, otherwise known as Kentucky Oaks day, where fillies will run for lilies instead of mostly male horses running for roses. Go figure. But there is plenty of great racing on both days, so let’s get to the analysis immediately.
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Firstly, there was some fear early in the week with massive thunderstorms moving from the Midwest to the east coast via Louisville. However, storms moved on by Wednesday and the track began its return to normal. It was rated good for the first 2 races on Thursday and then upgraded to fast.
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On Thursday, the track seemed to play quite fairly, with almost equal amounts of frontrunners, off the pace, and closers winning the races. The featured 5f Kentucky Juvenile was won on the front end with a very slow pace.
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Today Churchill started with a fairly dry fast track and has been won by early running favorites the first 4 races (boring). There are no further heavy rain worries, and the track should run fast the rest of the weekend. (Read: closers could have the edge if there’s enough pace.)
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Let’s work with the assumption that the track will be running fairly the rest of the weekend, and that closers will have an equal shot at everything as long as they’re good enough and there’s some pace in the race. Start with the 142nd running of the Kentucky Oaks, today’s featured race.
First, download the Oaks Grid right here so you can follow along.
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Rachel’s Valentina is the favorite at 7-2 , and for good reason. The daughter of 2 Preakness winners, Bernardini and Rachel Alexandra, who also won the Kentucky Oaks, has a G1 win and coming off two 2nd place G1 finishes entering her 5th lifetime race.
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She’s an EP7 that will be closely tracking the frontrunner Paola Queen, an E8. The field also has a few EP6’s including Go Maggie Go 12-1, who comes off a Gulfstream Oaks G2 win in the slop, in just her 2nd career race. Terra Promessa at 10-1 will also stalk the pace, after 4 straight wins including 2 G2’s.
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But is the morning line favorite not Weep No More 9-2, who just beat Rachel’s in the Ashland G1 at 30-1, coming from 13 lengths behind a moderate but honest pace? She’s arguable the best late runner in the field after 3 straight wins following a clunker in the first maiden voyage.
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The top LP actually belongs to EP5 Cathryn Sophia 9-2, who hung up for 3rd in the Ashland as the 1-2 favorite after a wide bid after beginning her career with 4 impressive wins.
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What are we to make of the Gazelle G2 contingent of Lewis Bay, Royal Obsession, and Mo D’Amour? Those first 2 earned impressive performance figures rating off a slow paced, muddy and sealed race at Aqueduct. It was at 9f which is .5f further than any of the others have run.
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The pace scenario of 8-7-6-6 does spell some heat up front, and with a dry track, could spell trouble for Rachel’s Valentina, Go Maggie Go and Terra at 9f. Those who could benefit are Weep No More, Land Over Sea, and Taxable.
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For this reason, I’ll be sticking with Weep No More to win over Royal Obsession, Rachel, Land Over Sea, Cathryn Sophia, and Lewis Bay.
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Other great races on the card include the La Troienne G1, Eight Belles G2, Turf Sprint G3, Alysheba G2, and Edgewood G3. It’s a great beautiful day at Churchill Downs and great day for wagering.
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To get all the Grids for all the races on Oaks and Derby Day, you can click here.

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OK so what about the Kentucky Derby? Well it’s not until tomorrow so don’t worry about it too much yet. Seriously, we’ve been feverishly working on research to put together the special Kentucky Derby Grid for weeks.
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The Derby Grid has over 80 factors including great performance, pedigree, and historical criteria. That’s been finalized the past couple days after the post draw and is available anytime.

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We already have a page dedicated to that, which will have analysis and graphics updated along the way, starting with after the races are run today.

2016 Kentucky Derby Grid, Race Analysis and Graphics

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That should be enough for you to go on for now. Stay tuned to that page above for our final analysis and predictions.
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Get the Grid and good luck!
Dalton

If you want to want to get the Grid for every important race and track, those options are here.
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