Weekend Winners Club

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Friday, May 6
Churchill Downs
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One way you can almost always root out a lot of non-contenders in the Kentucky Derby is to throw those out that didn’t finish in the money in their last Derby prep, and more specifically if they didn’t finish 1st or 2nd in one of the 5 major preps.
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This technique doesn’t always work, but usually does. For example the picture here shows the major prep winners and runners up for the past 20 years, 19 of which we have Kentucky Derby results for.
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Since 1997, 17 of 19 Derby champions finished 1st of 2nd in their final prep, and of those 14 were one of the 5 major preps. Monarchos actually finished 1st in the Fla Derby and 2nd in the Wood.
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Exceptions to ITM major prep:
Charismatic won the Lexington to get in after 4th at Santa Anita
War Emblem won the Illinois Derby, now defunct but was a major prep
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Exceptions to 1st or 2nd in final prep:
Giacomo was 4th in the Santa Anita Derby
Mine that Bird was 4th in the Sunland Derby and ran no major prep
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It should be noted that the last two mentioned were flukes, and were two late running horses sitting on the biggest race of their lives. That was evidenced by 50-1 odds.
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As you can see, the past 6 Derby champs all complied with the “1st or 2nd in major prep rule,” and in fact the last five all won their major prep. Does that mean they will again, or are we do for an exception?
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Personally, I think most of our initial 12 list is qualified here, but I’m personally throwing out the runners up in the Bluegrass, Arkansas, and Lousiana because they’re not fast enough. I’m also saving Majesto for the Belmont stakes (shhhh).
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It’s also true that none of the winners have come from the Louisiana Derby, but they did finish in the money a few times and the race appears to be increasing its relevance. Gun Runner is no fluke, coming off two straight victories against decent competition.
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So that helped me narrow down the inital field of 20 to 8 right off the bat, right? Except, there are some coming in that finished 1st or 2nd in their final prep. Even if that prep wasn’t a major, they earned enough points to get into the Derby.
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Destin won the Tampa Bay Derby on March 12, stamping his Derby ticket and beating Outwork, who was forced to run again in the Wood. So Destin beat a major prep winner, and won his last prep. He has to be considered as part of this group.
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Lani won the UAE Derby, which is a grade 2 and part of the Derby Championship Series, but no horse won the real Derby after coming out of the UAE Derby. It’s not a major prep and they’ve never finished better than 5th in the roses.
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Oscar Nominated won the Spiral Stakes to get his Derby ticket, however he’s a turf horse by Kitten’s Joy. He’s never raced on dirt and doesn’t want to race on dirt. And no, he’s no Animal Kingdom, who won the Spiral with a performance figure about 10 points higher.
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So this should help weed out some non-contenders for you. We’ve got some major prep winners and runners up plus Destin, minus some plodders that will never win.
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Back to Kentucky Derby race analysis and predictions page.
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Download Final 2016 Kentucky Derby Grid Here with full field, odds, posts, and over 80 different factors including pedigree, performance, and historical criteria!
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