Weekend Winners Club

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Sunday, May 8, 2016
Churchill Downs
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In the aftermath of the Kentucky Derby, it’s a great time to look back and see how we did rating the horses that were pointed toward the run for the roses, and what we did to prepare people.
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In this article, we’ll look at how we did on our inital Derby Dozen released on December 20 of last year. That article can be found here, untampered with since that date:

Doug’s Derby Dozen December 20

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We had the champ Nyquist at number one, as he remained on every Derby Dozen we published since then, no matter who was winning what other prep races, so we’re proud of that. But at that point last year, hopefully everyone had the 2yo champ ranked 1st.
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Swipe was ranked number 2, which was very logical since his worst crime was finishing 2nd to Nyquist 4 times straight. No shame in that. He was injured and went off the Derby trail, finally coming back to racing in April.
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In all, we had 13 horses listed, making it a “Dozen and One.”
Of the 13 horses we listed, 6 of them actually ended up competing in the Kentucky Derby 4.5 months later, after injuries and all the preps yet to follow.
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Those are pretty good numbers. Two more besides those 6 competed on Kentucky Derby day in undercard graded stakes races, one of which was a turf horse that looked good for one dirt race.
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Our first, 6th, and 7th ranked horses finished 1st, 2nd and 4th in the Derby. Gun Runner was not found on our list at that time, but would have been around 15. He finished 4th in a G2 in November to 3 other horses that were on the list.
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Considering we had the Derby winner ranked 1st, and two of our top 7 finished in the top 4, and 3 more competed in the Kentucky Derby 4.5 months later, it’s clear we did quite well.
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I’d like to give us a score of excellent, because I’m biased toward our analysis here and I know we have the best products and services available. But I know we can do better.
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Grade: A-

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