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Weekend Winners Club

May 20 2016

Pimlico Friday 5/20 Black Eyed Susan G2 and Late Pick 4

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Friday, May 20
Pimlico Race Course
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So far, the first 9 races were all been won by chalk: 3 favorites that were at 2-1 or less, and 6 2nd public betting choices at 5-1 or less. All of the winners were from the front 1/3 of the field, including several front running victories. Race 10, a long shot finally broke through, with 13-1 Gone Away taking the Hilltop.
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The Pimlico Special was especially sobering, after the top 2 morning line choices, the pair that finished 1st and 2nd in the Charles Town Classic, mysteriously scratched with no public reason given, leaving a field of 6. Noble Bird had his 2nd good race in his past 5, taking the lead early then separating in the 9.5f G3 race.
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The 2nd late Pick 4 will begin in race 11 with the Black Eyed Susan G2, the day’s featured race at 4:50 PM. The favorites are the pair coming out of the G1 Kentucky Oaks: Land Over Sea who finished 2nd, and Go Maggie Go who was 4th, continuing to improve despite the loss, in her 3rd lifetime start after a G2 Gulfstream Park Oaks win.
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The interesting newcomer is Kinsley Kisses, an E8 at 6-1, running in her first route race after a solid 3rd place effort in the 7f Beaumont G3 at Keeneland. Trained by Todd Pletcher, there is nobody in the field that has run close to the early fractions she set in her first 3 career races. Trying to stretch that speed out is logical and it could get her to the wire first if she can hold on for 9f.
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The top two will likely finish that way in some order and the E8 will probably be in the trifecta and the 3rd betting choice. However, if the pace does heat up, watch out for Dothraki Queen at 15-1. In 4 dirt races, 2 were on a dry track and only 1 of the 4 offered a solid pace. She closed well for 3rd in that one, the BC Juvenile Filly G1, for her best career race so far.
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Black Eyed Susan and R12

Black Eyed Susan and R12


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The 3 races following the Black Eyed Susan are a turf allowance, turf claimer, and the Miss Preakness G3 for the 3yo fillies sprinting 6f. Unfortunately in this race, the contenders in the 10 filly field all have single digit ML odds. But there are 5 of them, so it’s a good race to spread out a bit in the Pick 4.
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The two turf races have nice fields of 14 and 13 after scratches, and appear to have a lot of choices. It’s tempting to single the favorite Phlash Phelps in R12, but I’d like to include one of the late runners currently offered at 15-1: 3, 7 or 14, not sure which yet.
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Miss Preakness and R14

Miss Preakness and R14


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In the last leg I like Cruise More and Diana’s Vendetta, but they’re both late runners in a field without much early speed. For that reason, we have to look at Big Johnny D, and I especially like Outofthedepths not just because of his top EP rating, but ML odds of 15-1.
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Good luck!
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Full Grid download for Pimlico Friday and Saturday here.
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PS my pick 4 ended up as:
Pick 4 3,5,10/2,11/1,4,6,8,9/2,6,11
$0.50
$45.00

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