Weekend Winners Club

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Saturday, May 21
Pimlico, Baltimore MD
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It’s been a somewhat typical day at Pimlico for Preakness Day, with rain on and off as usual, muddy infielders, and mostly favorites winning, as usual. In the first 9 races, 6 winners were at 3-1 or less, but they did sprinkle in a 6-1 winner and a couple of long shots. We will break down the remaining races including the Preakness.
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Unfortunately, there were 2 horses lost early in the day, covered here.
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The past 3 races starting in race 7 have given us winners at odds of 1-2, 2-5, and 4-5, holding to true Preakness undercard stakes racing form. There will be more favorites winning for sure, including probably Nyquist, but let’s try to get at least 1 more longshot winner on the day, and certainly we can get some in the horizontal exotics.
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R10: Gallorette G3
Race 10 looks very chalky and the winner will most likely be Tiger Ride or Josdesanimaux. The only saving grace is there isn’t much speed, so we might be able to get one of the EP7’s, Old Fashion Gal at 6-1 or Monster Sleeping, the inside speed at 15-1, to hold on. They’ve both shown the class to do it, as has Mizz Money at 9-2, who is an EP6. Heath 6-1 is in good form and could show up as well.
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R11: Sir Barton
The favorite will be Bob Baffert’s American Freedom, a 3yo making his 3rd career start after a disappointing trip in which he bobbled and was steadied early in the Pat Day mile on the Kentucky derby undercard, finishing 6th. However, his career debut was an impressive win in a 7f sloppy sealed maiden race, giving the bettors more reason to favor him.
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Todd Pletcher’s Donegal Moon 8-1 has also looked impressive most of the time, except in his graded stakes races, in which he’s had bad luck and just came up short. Others with the class to possibly get it done are Dazzling Gem 9-2, 4th in the Ark Derby, and Voluntario 10-1 who’s improving and was stakes placed in Md as a 2yo.
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R12: Dixie G2 Stakes
This is the race that NBC refuses to televise every year, due to their utter snobby, arrogant, and condescending disdain for anything that has to do with the south, who they look at as a bunch of ignorant red necks with guns. They hate Kentucky and would never go there without the Derby being located in Louisville. The word Dixie repulses them.
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Normally on Preakness day, they have the Dixie starting in the background of the commentators, and say nothing about it, after covering every other race on the card from the beginning of the telecast. They often start babbling about the Preakness again or cut away to a commercial during the race. Sometimes they even bring in Bob Costas for a special morality lecture at that time, in addition to the one he gives later on.
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What makes this situation worse is that NBC owns the rights to televise the race first, which means nobody is able to show the race live except NBC, and they don’t. So you have to watch replays on TVG or Twinspires or other betting outfit after the fact, to even see it, unless you’re at Pimlico or watching a simulcast at another track or OTB.
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This one again looks chalky, with the ML choice of Grand Arch 4-1 ML, which will likely be around 2-1 or so, looking almost invincible. 2nd choice Ring Weekend looks strong too at 9-2. Again, with not much speed in the race, Take the Stand 6-1 or El Kabeir 20-1 could hold on for something. The latter is intriguing in his first turf start. The top late runner is Golden Sabre 15-1.
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Preakness G1

The analysis of the Preakness hasn’t changed much from the initial few articles we’ve had about it, covered here in detail. Nyquist is a legitimate favorite and will go off at odds of less than even money, making him a good win bet only for souvenir tickets. There is nothing in his pedigree to suggest he will dislike a wet track.
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Many will move Exaggerator to number one on their board, due to his outstanding win on a sloppy sealed track in the Santa Anita Derby, and his odds will likely not be more than 2-1 or so. Just keep in mind that he’s lost to Nyquist 4 times over 4 different distances and 3 tracks. This includes the career debut for both of them, wherein Nyquist began his undefeated career and Exaggerator was 5th.
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Download Preakness Grid PDF here

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Stradivari 8-1 will likely remain the 3rd choice after his runaway 9f allowance win. There’s nothing to suggest that this young colt will have a problem with the wet track either. His sire Medaglia D’oro ran what may have been his best career race and only 10f win, in a sloppy Travers stakes.
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Collected 10-1 will have decreasing odds also, trained by Bob Baffert (6 Preakness wins) and coming off a strong Lexington Stakes win. He also has DRF’s top wet track rating as shown in the Grid. However, his only subpar race was a 4th place finish in the Southwest G3 on a wet track rated good. Other than that, he’s won 4 and placed once in all stakes and 1 maiden race.
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Abiding Star is now the wise guy longshot horse at 30-1 and will likely be down around 15-1 by post time. The front runner has rattled off 5 straight wins including listed stakes at Laurel and Parx. But most impressive to some was his 8 length optional claiming win over a sloppy sealed Parx track 2 races back. He shares the same sire as Nyquist, Uncle Lino, and Laoban.
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Uncle Lino is still on my radar at 20-1, another front runner coming off an impressive win in the California Chrome stakes, in which he earned the only triple digit Grid performance figure in the field. The concern is that he faded badly in his two graded stakes before that, including the sloppy Santa Anita Derby, finishing 3rd and 4th behind Exaggerator (1st and 3rd). Still he has the inside speed and looks to get the jump on the rail.
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All of the dirt races today have been won by horses in the front half of the field, and despite the amount of early speed in this race. I don’t see any reason to consider any closer besides Exaggerator for the top 3. It’s possible that most of the speed folds and one of the two S0’s could pick up 3rd or 4th but it’s unlikely.
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Full Preakness day Pimlico Grid here

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