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Weekend Winners Club

May 22 2016

Belmont Stakes 148: Early Possible Field of Contenders, Odds and Analysis

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Sunday, May 22, 2016
Belmont Park, Elmont NY
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It’s never too early to look at the 2016 Belmont Stakes 148, the third leg in the Triple Crown series, to be held on Saturday June 11 with a post time of about 6:45 PM ET, judging from the last 5 Belmont Stakes’ actual post times.
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The race is also known as the Test of Champions because of its 12f distance which most of the field has never and will never race at again. It’s also only 5 weeks after the Kentucky Derby and 3 weeks after the Preakness, two of the toughest and longest races the contenders have had yet, for those who participated in both.
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Possible Contender Odds Style Trainer Last Race
Exaggerator 2-1 S0 Desormeaux 1st Preakness
Nyquist 5-2 EP7 O’neill 3rd Preakness
Destin 8-1 EP4 Pletcher 6th Kentucky Derby
Stradivari 8-1 EP6 Pletcher 4th Preakness
Suddenbreakingnews 8-1 S0 Von Hemel 5th Kentucky Derby
Cherry Wine 10-1 S0 Romans 3rd Preakness
Mo Tom 10-1 S0 Amoss 8th Kentucky Derby
Lani 12-1 S0 Matsunaga 5th Preakness
Governor Malibu 12-1 EP5 Clemente 2nd Peter Pan
Brody’s Cause 15-1 S0 Romans 7th Kentucky Derby
Unified 15-1 E7 Jerkens 1st Peter Pan
Creator 20-1 S0 Asmussen 13th Kentucky Derby
Mor Spirit 20-1 P3 Baffert 10th Kentucky Derby
American Freedom 25-1 EP6 Baffert 1st Sir Barton

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* odds from HorseRaceBetWin
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Of course, there probably won’t be 14 horses in the field. The average size for the Belmont field is normally 8-10 but it obviously varies from year to year. We decided to make up the odds on our own since there is nothing close to an official line yet, and after all, we are premier handicappers here.
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Exaggerator will be the favorite in the Belmont. Despite being the most heavily raced horse in any Triple Crown race this year, he always comes out fresh. He’s a workhorse with 11 races now under his belt, including 2 Grade 1 wins and 2 G1 runner-up finishes, to Nyquist and Brody’s Cause. His sire Curlin also won the Preakness and finished 2nd in the Belmont.
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Exaggerator puts away field in Preakness

Exaggerator puts away field in Preakness


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Nyquist will be a close 2nd choice if he runs here, but don’t count on the latter. Doug O’neill and connections could well decide against it like he did with I’ll Have Another, who was actually in line to become the first Triple Crown champion in almost 40 years.
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The stakes aren’t as major this time Nyquist. O’neill has already had the last laugh with over $5 million in earnings from Nyquist this year, thanks to winning the Kentucky Derby and a $1 million bonus for the Florida Derby. Exaggerator is 2nd with almost $3 million. It’s doubtful any 3yo will catch Nyquist in earnings this year, but if he’s fit and sound, there’s good reason to enter the contest.
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Destin has already been forgotten by many for not running in any big races except the Kentucky Derby, but keep in mind he finished 6th in that, not 16th, competing every step of the way. He won his 2 preps in Tampa before that and is fresh for this one. Pletcher may have never won the Preakness, but he’s come up big in the Belmont twice in the past 10 years, most recently with Palace Malice, who was 12th in the derby.
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Stradivari also came up big for Todd, getting 4th in the Preakness, in just his 4th lifetime start, proving he belongs with the best 3yo’s, and is still improving. Sire Medaglia D’oro narrowly missed the Belmont victory, finishing 2nd to the longest shot in history, Sarava. It won’t be surprising at all if Todd pulls off another Belmont Stakes upset this year with this solid duo.
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Suddenbreakingnews skipped the Preakness but probably would have got 2nd rather than Cherry Wine had he run. He’s one of the best late running 3yo’s, as evidenced by his great close for 5th in the Derby. His final ¼ mile of 24.3 seconds was best in the Derby this year and better than most Derby winners’ final closing fractions. His sire Mineshaft was horse of the year as a 4yo running classic races.
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Cherry Wine proved his closing ability in the Preakness, getting up to nose out Nyquist at the wire after plodding in 10th most of the race. Given he had the fast pace to run at, like others did in the Derby, and only a couple other closers to deal with in the Preakness, one of which is the great Exaggerator.
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Mo Tom is the hard luck horse who had to check up sharply in both of his last prep races, costing him the win in one of them for sure. He had a better trip in the Derby and finished a respectable 8th, coming from 18th halfway thru. He’s one of the best closers in the field.
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Lani is just competing because Matsunaga got a visa to the US to compete in the Triple Crown, and he’s making the most of it. He finished 5th in the Preakness, picking up a little bit of money, not enough to cover expenses. But it doesn’t matter, they’re just having fun with their young promising colt and seeing how he measures up to the north American crop.
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Here’s where things get interesting. Governor Malibu finished a strong closing 2nd in the Peter Pan G2 at 9f at Belmont, a race generally used as a prep for the Belmont Stakes and other summer 3yo races. It looked like he wanted another furlong. The race before that, he closed to beat Preakness contender Awesome Speed in a painfully slow-paced Federico Tesio, only to place 2nd via DQ.
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Unified did win the Peter Pan, holding on for dear life from the relentless pursuit of Malibu. He was heavily favored to win the race and chased a legitimate pace to win. But the fact is that Jerkens was immediately undecided about the Belmont Stakes and still is. The opinion is that he probably can’t contend at the 12f distance.
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Brody’s Cause proved to be a strong closer in the Bluegrass Stakes, and again closing for 7th in the Kentucky Derby with a great final ¼ of 24.8. He definitely has to be reckoned with at a distance of 12f and any classic distance. Sire Giant’s Causeway was a multiple G1 winner in Europe in turf routes.
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Creator is another good closer who looked great in the Arkansas Derby but had a bad trip in Kentucky. He could get back on track with a solid Belmont performance.
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Mor Spirit was a sleeper coming in to the Derby, having finished 3rd in most of his preps, but just couldn’t make much happen, starting and finishing in the middle of the field.
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American Freedom hasn’t been declared as a contender for the Belmont Stakes, but his Sir Barton victory on the Preakness undercard was impressive. In just his 3rd lifetime race, he repelled challenges to his lead 5 times, including the late charging Voluntario coming up the rail to claim the lead.
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Going by the numbers, his mile time in the Barton was 1.38.23 and Exaggerator’s Preakness mile was 1.38.19. His final time for the 8.5f however was 1.44.85 compared to about 1.43.22 for Exaggerator’s 8.5f time. That wouldn’t cut it against the top 4 in the Preakness, but it was only his 3rd lifetime race, and he has every right to keep improving.
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So, this potential field could give 3 trainers 2 chances each to win the Belmont: Pletcher, Romans, and Baffert, the latter of which may not enter a single horse. But the notable fact about this field the lack of early speed among the probable contenders. If Unified and American Freedom don’t race here, which is just as likely as it is not, there just isn’t much early pace.
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Take those two and there are 0 front runners, unless you count Nyquist’s occasional front running antics. Only several horses like to run near the pace: Destin, Stradivari, and Gov Malibu. Nyquist doesn’t normally take the lead early but sometimes he does, which may have cost him the Preakness. The other early runners appear happy to rate behind the pace so far.
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The rest of the field consists almost entirely S0 types that plod in the rear for the first half of the race before making their closing move. This running style doesn’t usually win the Belmont. The exception would be Mor Spirit who runs mid-pack, and possibly Exaggerator who used to run closer to the pace his 1st 7 career races before switching to a closing style 2 races before the Derby.
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So now the odds should make a lot more sense, with the single digit crew consisting mostly of those that run close to the pace, and have proven their caliber in at least one Triple Crown event. This is also why I think Governor Malibu and American Freedom would be great long shot bets if they actually do run in the Test of Champions. There are 3 weeks to go and the field could look much different.
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The 2016 Belmont 148 Grid PP’s will be available here as soon as data profiles are available.

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