Weekend Winners Club

May 30 2016

Santa Anita Memorial Day Pick 6 Carryover $438k; Grid PP’s and Long Shot Plays

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Monday, May 30
Santa Anita Park
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Memorial Day this year has some nice carryovers for the Pick 6 wagers, but one of them is particularly attractive. Not a Jackpot wager where you need the unique ticket to win, Santa Anita’s is a traditional Pick 6, and today the carryover is $438k.
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This means the pool by post time will easily shatter $1 million and probably get at least $2 million. It also means if you win it you may have to split it with somebody, but what’s $2 million among friends? The 10 race card means the sequence will start in race 5 at about 4 PM/ 7 PM eastern.
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The Grid is something that can get you a nice Pick 6 payout by having a unique tool that most others don’t have. There are Pick 6’s that I won that I would never have got without the Grid, and some that I got using ONLY the Grid.
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Download the Grid here to follow along
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For example, the public betting and most other tools will tell you that the even money favorite Taman Guard is the horse to beat in race 4. This is logical as he had a great maiden debut and could easily improve in this class.
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However, most pp’s will not tell you that Follini actually has the best PF on the board, and also the best EP rating. He’s coming off a race where he clipped heels and lost his jock. That happens but not often. Before that he finished a strong 3rd in a $150k sprint, a higher class than this $58k purse.
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Race 5, you have a horse that lost its rider 2 races back going on as the ML favorite. What they’re not telling you is that the top LP and power horse is Little Bit Lovely at 6-1. The top EP horse is 4-1, and both of those have competitive PF’s in their last 4.
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What they also might not tell you is that the 2 tied for 2nd best LP in R5 are both long shots. 1 of which has the highest turf PF overall at 20-1. The other has the 2nd highest dirt PF, which he achieved last out, and is at 15-1 ML. He’s being overlooked because his last turf race sucked, but it was at a mile.
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The best PF overall was achieved on dirt by Texas Two Step 10-1, also coming off a subpar race on a sloppy track at a similar distance as today’s race. Both of these last two switching from dirt to turf look like good angles to me. It doesn’t always work out but when it does it’s rewarding.
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The favorite in race 6 is solid but I have a hard time bringing myself to single an E8 early speed horse, particularly when he doesn’t have the top EP rating, which belongs to Johnny’s Choice at 4-1 ML. Top LP’s are Senna at 6-1 and Apollo Ten at 7-2.
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So, I’m not going to overanalyze every race for you, but wanted to get you started on how you’re going to use the Grid to win part of that Pick 6. In race 7 I’m tempted to stick with the 2 favorites but will single the top ML choice who scored the best PF last out in his 2nd race. If he improves again it will be over. You have to single somewhere in these.
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Santa Anita Memorial Day Grid- Gamely G1

Santa Anita Memorial Day Grid- Gamely G1


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In the featured race 8, the Gamely G1, there are only 2 early runners. They have the top 2 EP ratings and are at 5-1 and 6-1. The favorite looks solid yes, and so does the 2nd ML choice, and they have the 2nd and 3rd best LP ratings. But also consider the top LP runner at 6-1. At any rate, with almost no early speed in the race, I’d be more likely to single one of the 2 early runners than the S0 favorite.
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In race 9 keep in mind the top LP and the top PF overall past 10 races go to separate horses, both listed at 8-1 ML. The situational ROI’s for the 4-1 Noble Kent, cutting back to sprint for Jonathan Wong are really nice. He also has the Grid’s top Power rating. All this info is in the Grid, except my opinion that he could be the post time favorite. But watch out for the top 2 EP rated horses, in another field almost devoid of early speed.
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In the last race, on first look there’s almost no speed, again. There’s an E3 that will most likely fade in the stretch as usual. But the P5 Tizzing has the top EP rating and is very consistent. Not that consistency is a great virtue among maidens but when they’re competitive they always win at some point.
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Did I just give you a Pick 6 ticket? No, and I won’t give you mine because what if I change it in the final minutes and you win the ticket I gave you and I don’t? Then I’d be really mad. But seriously, I did give you several to choose from in every race, pointed out some live long shots, and you’ll just have to narrow down your ticket.
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In general what I like to do is include the favorite since they win about half the races in these type of circumstances, and mix in some live long shots. Then I get killed by some 3-1 or 4-1 that was obvious but I didn’t have room for on my ticket. That’s how these things go. Picking 6 winners on a modest budget usually isn’t easy.
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Good luck.
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My recommended ticket was, for pooling with friends:
$2 Pick 6
3,4,6,9/1,2,4,8/5,10/4-6,8/6-8/3,6,10
1152 bets
$2,304.00

Pick 6 pool was $1.95 million.

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