Weekend Winners Club

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Wednesday, June 8
Belmont Park
Elmont NY
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Get full Grid PP’s for Belmont Friday and Saturday here
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Today the Belmont Stakes post draw was conducted, and there were several newcomers that enrolled within the past week, including 2 fresh off their maiden victories. At least a front runner was finally added to the field, with habitual fader Gettysburg entering due to lack of other early speed.
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One thing history teaches us is that when different horses win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, normally yet another horse wins the Belmont Stakes. In fact, even when the same horse wins the Derby and Preakness, usually another horse wins the Belmont. American Pharoah broke a 37 year drought on that one.
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Out of the past 20 Belmont Stakes, 16 winners were horses that had not won either the Kentucky Derby or Preakness. Many were horses that ran in The Derby and most finished well in that race and/or the Preakness. Some were in their first Triple Crown race.
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This is not the first time a Preakness champion has come in to the Belmont Stakes as a heavy favorite, in fact most of them are. The favorite, whoever it is, normally has a poor record. However, the Preakness-only champion when favored has a good Belmont record, unlike the last 2 who failed, Oxbow and Shackleford.
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Curlin was the last Derby loser / Preakness winner who was favored in the Belmont. He ran well and placed 2nd in 2007 as the even money favorite. Before that Afleet Alex and Point Given completed the Preakness-Belmont double as heavy favorites.
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Those last two were also the ONLY favorites that won the Belmont in the past 20 years besides last year’s Triple Crown Champion. So while being favored in the Belmont is a low percentage, 3 of 20 bet, being the Preakness-only winner and favored won 2 of 3 in the past 20 years, and finished 2nd once. Go back a few more years and Tabasco Cat also swept the Preakness and Belmont.
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Exaggerator’s scenario this year does highly resemble that of Afleet Alex, Point Given, and Curlin coming into this year’s race. Similar running style, Preakness dominance, and the fact that he didn’t lose by much in the Derby, a close 2nd. The others finished 3rd in the first leg except for Point Given who was 5th.
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However, as we’ve illustrated, being favored in the Belmont generally does suck, so we have to look for other options, despite the probability that Exaggerator will likely finish top 3. And, we have to be able to formulate a nice winning exotic wager such as a trifecta or superfecta. These normally pay well.
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One thing we must always look at is the pace scenario. Many early running, speedball connections believe their horse simply can’t be effective at 12f, even if they pretended they could at Churchill over 10f, and normally didn’t. Chalk some of that up to Derby fever, but sometimes speed does hold up for at least part of the pie.
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Consequently, the Belmont has become a race that’s increasingly almost devoid of early speed. And because of that, those that do run early at all have a greater chance than usual. You have to keep in mind that in ANY race, if a horse is allowed to gallop on or near the lead, it has an increased chance of winning.
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The Belmont Stakes is no exception. 1.5 miles or not, if the field lets a leader lollygag around near the lead, that early runner is going to have more in the tank at the end than if honest fractions were set. This has led to some serious winning prices, including Sarava, the biggest long shot winner ever, and Da’Tara, the 2nd longest shot in the past 30 years.
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Let’s look at the last 10 Belmont Stakes, with the pace scenario and who actually ran in the money:

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You can see that there’s usually not much in the way of early speed scheduled, and 1 or 2 of the 4 earliest runners usually finishes in the money. This year is not much different, in that there is only one front runner in the field, and a few other early pace pressers.
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By comparison to the past years, the top 4 horses in speed points this year are: E8, EP5, EP4, and EP4. The entry of Gettysburg in the last week gives the field a true front runner where it did not have one. You can see who the four early runners are in this part of the Belmont Stakes Grid.

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The only other horse in this field that has ever been on the lead at 1st call is Exaggerator, in last year’s Delta Jackpot, which he won. 2 races after that, they changed his racing style to a late closing runner for his last 4 races, which has been equally effective. But we have to keep in mind that with his versatility, he could easily rate closer to the pace if they want him to, as he did in the Preakness, particularly if the pace is slow.
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Only 2 others in the field had the lead by 2nd call in any race: Stradivari twice in his 4 races, and Governor Malibu in one race. So the early lead is Gettysburg’s for the taking, but it usually doesn’t hold up for him very well. He will hope to have it alone, but there should be some pressure from Stradivari, and others, especially if he tries to take it slow.
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In the next part of the Belmont Grid, we can see the fractions ran by all the contenders their last time out. New entrant Seeking the Soul looks fastest out of the blocks, but he was pressing behind a very fast pace at a mile. He has rated behind the pace in all 3 races so it’s unlikely he’ll go for the lead, but don’t be surprised if he’s pressing Gettysburg early.
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The rest of the field consists entirely of S0 late runners and one S2. None of them has ever had the lead in a race until they reached the stretch. For this reason, I don’t think any of them can be considered serious winning contenders in this race. But it wouldn’t surprise me at all if any of them were sent to press the pace early, even if they don’t want to.
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Fractions provide good info, but unless they’re in the same race, or at least the same day, track, and distance, they are similar to comparing apples and oranges. Pimlico and Churchill are much different tracks, and the Preakness was run on a sloppy surface. That’s why people invented speed figures, and we also have early and late pace ratings.
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The Grid clearly shows that Stradivari has the top early pace (EP) rating, as he typically runs early and sets some legitimate pace fractions. It may surprise you to see that Exaggerator’s EP rating is 3rd, despite the fact that he’s a P0/S0. This is because he’s been in 5 consecutive races with a very fast pace, and was forced to run fast early even while behind. Gettysburg is 2nd in EP.
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So we have 4 other horses besides the front runner that have run fast early in a race before in their lives, and may in fact be the only ones capable of doing so. These are the 4 that will be on or near the pace early, and because there is not much of a competition for the pace, they will likely be near the pace late as well.
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I’d like to see some better overall PF’s from any of the contenders, because they don’t compare very favorably to Exaggerator. If you use the highest low PF method, only Stradivari has a chance of holding off the champ. However, Destin is close, and is the only other in the field with a triple digit Beyer figure. So he would fit the highest low Beyer qualification.
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Governor Malibu does not fit that method, but obviously closed well his last time out and does in general. Keep in mind that this is the 12f distance that none of them have run at before, and probably never will again. Sometimes it’s surprising to see who runs most effectively at that distance.
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There are a lot of variables that still go into this, but given the information we have, we can make a good educated estimate about what will happen in this race. View the graphics below to see how we believe the Belmont Stakes will play out.
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C’est fini.
Destin wins followed by Exaggerator and the Governor.
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Get full Grid PP’s for Belmont Friday and Saturday here

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