Loading ...Jun 17 2016
Churchill Downs Saturday June 17 Stephen Foster and 4 other Graded Stakes Grid PP’s
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Friday, June 17
Churchill Downs
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The Belmont Stakes is over, which means that the beginning of a great summer of racing just got underway. Churchill Downs has their third biggest day of the year, after Kentucky Derby and Oaks days, on Saturday. Belmont has a couple more big days coming up as well. For the full summer stakes schedule click here.
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Churchill Downs’ Saturday card has 5 graded stakes on the 11 race card, including the coveted Stephen Foster G1 Handicap. They also have over a half million $ pick 6 jackpot carryover for Friday so that could increase again on Saturday. Here’s the stakes lineup for Saturday:
• Fleur de Lis H (gr. II), $200,000g, 3&up f/m, 9f.
• Matt Winn S (gr. III), $100,000g, 3yo, 8.5f.
• Regret S (gr. III), $100,000g, 3yo f, 9f.
• Stephen Foster H (gr. I), $500,000g, 3&up, 9f.
• Wise Dan S (gr. II), $200,000g, 3&up, 8.5f.
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The Grid PP’s for Saturday at Churchill is posted so download as your primary handicapping tool here.
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The biggest race is the $500K Stephen Foster G1 Handicap for horses that are normally angling for an eventual Breeders’ Cup Classic run. The short field of 7 is competitive but will have their hands full with a very solid favorite.
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The even money ML favorite Effinex is definitely pointing for the BCC. The 5yo finished 2nd in last year’s Classic to American Pharoah. This year he sputtered a tad in his first start, fading to 3rd in the Big Cap G1, but got back on track in the Oaklawn Handicap G2 by beating Big Cap winner Melatonin.
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Effinex gets by Big Cap champion Melatonin in Oaklawn Handicap
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Bradester at 5-1 is scheduled to be the pace setter but there’s no evidence that he can win at 9f, or in G1 company for that matter, especially when pressurized by 4 others in the field, including Effinex. One such presser is long shot Are You Kidding Me at 10-1, who hasn’t raced on dirt in his last 10 if ever, but if he likes it could be very dangerous.
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If the pace does heat up, there are only two that don’t get caught up in the early pace up front. International Star 6-1 tried to pressure the pace once and it ended in his worst race ever. But he’s won several G2 races coming from off the pace, and recently finished 2 back in the New Orleans G2.
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The other late runner is Eagle 6-1, who heats up whenever the pace does, and has the top LP rating.. He has really come into his own as a 4yo this year, running in 4 graded stakes, winning 1 and taking 2nd twice. Add another 2nd for his debut this year in a listed stakes.
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The field is competitive, as mentioned, and the only real throw out is El Kabeir. I’m also throwing Bradester out of the top 2 spots unless the Downs comes up with some kind of speed bias on Saturday that is identified beforehand.
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For the other races, you can see what I’m talking about using the Grid, but here are some obvious long shot specials to keep an eye one. Last time I did this, almost every horse mentioned scratched beforehand, at Belmont Park last weekend. The weather is sunny and hot this weekend so there shouldn’t be many scratches
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Long shot specials:
R5 Matt Winn G3: I’m not betting it as Gun Runner is heavily favored and will likely win
R6 Fleur de Lis G2: There’s only 1 longshot and he can’t beat favorite Untapable. Pass again.
R7 Wise Dan G2: Thatcher Street 8-1, Pleuven 8-1
R8 Stephen Foster G1: Are You Kidding Me 10-1
R9 Regret G3: Dothraki Queen 10-1, Family Meeting 6-1, Gone Away 6-1, Quiet Business 30-1
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Just keep in mind that the first 4 of those races have solid favorites that will go off at even money or less. So I’m not even trying the first two, and tempted to pass the next two as well. For some of these to hit the board will be a victory, but no Regrets on race 9.
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Good luck.
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Check out summer specials to get the Grid all summer long!
So how did we do on this?
R5: Gun Runner won by about 5 lengths as predicted in the Matt Winn. Set pace.
R6: The 1 longshot was Paid Up Subscriber, who apparently CAN beat Untapable. She had highest BQ points as EP7, and didn’t set pace but was close enough.
R7: Pleuven won at 7-1, followed by Kasaqui and Thatcher St.
R8: I’ll quote the article “I’m also throwing Bradester out of the top 2 spots unless the Downs comes up with some kind of speed bias on Saturday that is identified beforehand.” There was clearly a speed bias, whether it was created by jockeys or not, who let Bradester set his own pace without any pressure whatsoever until the stretch, at which time it’s too late. Eagle finished 2nd and who knows what happened with Effinex but he didn’t seem to like the track at all. BTW, always remember the rule to never throw out a decent horse if it’s the only E horse in the race, despite what we said. LOL.
R9: Chalk, chalk, chalk, and more chalk. Oh well.