Weekend Winners Club

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Saturday, July 2
Churchill Downs
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It’s that time of year again! Independence and Dominion Day weekend is here and we’ve got fireworks going on all over the horse racing circuit. It all heated up on Friday with the Iowa Derby at Prairie and the Dominion Day Stakes at Woodbine, but the fireworks continue all weekend.
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Today, there’s great racing going on all around North America, including 9 stakes races at Gulfstream Park, 8 at Evangeline Downs, and some graded stakes like the Mother Goose G1 at Belmont, Salvator Mile at Monmouth, and Bashford Manor at Churchill.
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Today we will focus on Churchill Downs, which has a night racing card beginning at 6pm ET, which is even later than the Santa Anita card today. Churchill also has the biggest carryover of the day, with a Pick 6 Jackpot coming in at over $700k before betting.
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The Jackpot Pick 6 is a 20 cent base bet and will begin in race 4 at approximately 7:25 ET. It will include 2 of the featured stakes races including the Bashford Manor G2 and Debutante, both for 2yo’s of different genders.
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The two biggest 2yo races of the day so far have been at Gulfstream. First was the Cassidy stakes, wherein 2yo filly Cajun Delta Dawn surprised the handicappers at 17-1, after a tough neck victory on Gulfstream sloppiness first time out. The heavily favored White Gold faded to 4th after her 10 length front running maiden win. Lirica and Perfect Kay went 2nd and 3rd at low odds.
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Next was the Birdonthewire stakes, where front running favorite Three Rules proved his maiden victory in the slop was no fluke. Longshot Sonido proved his maiden win was no fluke either, finishing 2nd at 70-1. Francesco Appeal and Gunnevaro followed in the 9 horse field.
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BASHFORD MANOR
That brings us back to Churchill Downs where the 2yo’s will be competing again as they typically do this time of year. The Bashford Manor has produced several Kentucky Derby contenders over the years. Winners included Circular Quay, the Louisiana Derby winner who finished 6th in Kentucky, and Limehouse 4th in the KY Derby,
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As usual, you’ll want to download the Churchill Grid PP’s for Saturday and follow along.
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This year the Bashford Manor field is all set with 8 talented colts and a gelding. The ML favorite is 3-1 but there are 4 others at 5-1 or less. Tip Tap Tapizar is currently favored after a solid maiden win at Churchill his first time out last month for trainer Steve Asmussen.
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But all of them won their maiden at first asking, except for Boys from Boston, going into his 3rd race after a tough loss by a neck. The field is almost full of proven winners who won their first time out.
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The favorite probably would/could/should be Recruiting Ready, at 4-1 ML, except for the fact that a small percentage of people have heard of trainer Horacio Depaz or the sire Algorithms. But Edgar Prado did ride him to a 10 length victory his first time out. He may end up as the the post-time favorite, as some others could.
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Also grabbing some attention will be Classic Empire (Pioneerof the Nile) who came from off the pace in the slop to win for Mark Casse and Julien Leparoux. US Officer and Riv are also low in ML odds for good reason.
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Capt. Grider looks quite interesting after his maiden win at Keeneland in April, coming from 5 lengths off the lead in a 4.5 furlong race. His pedigree looks sneakily awesome, so we’ll see if Dante Zanelli knows how to handle such talent. Meguel Mena will be up, but Paco Lopez rode the maiden voyage.
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The real value in this race will be seeing how these young colts and geldings progress, and if they’re worthy of being Derby contenders one day.
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DEBUTANTE STAKES
Following that race will be the Debutante for 2yo fillies, who actually have a somewhat significantly higher average speed figure than their male counterparts. This is a very talented field of 10 young fillies, who once again were all winners their first time out except for one.
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We don’t have a stakes winner in this race, but ML favorite China Grove finished 2nd in the Astoria Stakes last month, closing the gap from 5 lengths back in the 5.5 Belmont race. Anna’s Bandit was just as impressive, coming from 6 back to finish just behind China Grove, but at much longer odds.
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As usual, none of them have never run against each other, except for those two mentioned, so it is difficult to handicap. Time and speed figures are one thing, but these area also rapidly improving horses that can gain a lot of muscle or speed in a short time and pull some surprises.
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Country Candy is very impressive coming off an easy 9 length win first out. Maximum Edge also pulled out a stretch-fight win after stalking the pace. Top EP Tricky One will get a lot of play, partially due to being in Asmussen’s barn.
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There is another stakes race on tap in the 11 race card, but I’m not here to break down every race for you. Check out the Grid and do some work yourself!

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