Weekend Winners Club

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Sunday, July 24
Saratoga Springs
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Today, the Pick 6 carryover of $87k increased to a pool of $432k at post time. It was not hit by anyone again, largely due to a 29-1 photo winner in the last race of the day. A pool of $333k will carry over, and even though it’s a Monday, and it will certainly exceed $600k and could approach $1 million.
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This may be considered a classic case of Monday morning quarterbacking, but a good gambler always evaluates the results to see where mistakes may have been made, and where there was room for improvement. Thus we will conduct a recap of today’s Pick 6 sequence, and how the winners measured up in the Grid.
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Saratoga Sunday Grid was posted here earlier. Follow along.
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R6 3:49 8.5f Inner Turf Md Sp Wt 3+FM (field 10):
Truth: 9-2, E8, post 1. 2nd EP, 2nd Speed, 2nd Power, 4th Stamina, Best Prior PF.
Although there was an E6 and an E4 also in the field, Truth was the sole E8, and took the race from gate to wire on a slow pace. The other 2 E horses never factored in.
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R7 4:25 8.5f Turf 113 Clm 40000 3+ (field 11):
Farhaan: 5-1, P4, post 10, 4th EP, 3rd Speed, 3rd Power, Best Prior PF.
There was an E6, an E5, and a few EP horses in this field, but the pace was still significantly faster than the last one. Stalker Farhaan transitioned to turf easily and made the best closing move here.
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R8 5:02 6.0f Dirt 148 S-Alw 75000n1x 3+FM (field 12)
Super Surprise: 5-2 fav, EP3, 5th Stamina, 5th Power, 2nd Best Prior PF.
This one was not difficult, with a horse returning to sprint after registering the 2nd best PF in the field at route, which also tied with her PF 3 races back at sprint, and she was the favorite.
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R9 5:40 8.0f Inner 97 OClm 62500n2x 3+FM (field 12)
Gap Year: 20-1, EP6, 2nd Best Prior PF, highest situational ROI.
This one was tricky, but there was only 1 E-type in the race, the E8 that finished 3rd, meaning that the E8 and any high EP horses had increased chance of winning. Gap Year was such a horse, who had the 2nd best prior PF, and you only had to go 2 races back to find the 3rd highest PF of the last 4 races of any in the field. It was followed up by a subpar effort, causing everyone to jump ship.
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R10 6:18 9.0f Dirt 125 CCAOaks-G1 3F (field 5):
Songbird: 1-5, Top EP/Speed/Power
Most people probably singled this filly and that’s a very logical move. You have to single somewhere.
Results:
POS # Horse Win Place Show
1st 1 Songbird $2.60 $2.10
2nd 2 Carina Mia $2.30
3rd 3 Flora Dora
4th 5 Mo D’amour
• $1.00 EXACTA 1-2 $2.20
• $1.00 TRIFECTA 1-2-3 $24.20
• $0.10 SUPERFECTA 1-2-3-5 $4.70
• $2.00 DAILY DOUBLE 5/1 $73.00
• $1.00 PICK 3 3 of 3 2/5/1 $194.75
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R11 6:54 8.0f Inner Turf 97 Alw 50000s 3+ (field 12):
Derby Champagne: 29-1, E8.
This is where the rest of the Pick 6 tickets fell apart, and we know they all did because there were no 6 of 6 winners. Did I include this horse? No. The performance figures were middle of the road for this field, and 5 in the field of 12 had achieved a higher PF than this one’s best PF. Most of the field had achieved higher EP and LP ratings than the winner.
It’s also a classic case of pace handicapping. We had a lone E8 in a field where there was also an E6, an EP7, and a few EP5’s. Although the winner didn’t lead at 1C, 2C, 3C, and was even passed briefly going into the stretch by the 3rd place finisher, the front runner had enough in the tank to hold on for 8f behind a slow pace for the victory.
In this type of race, one would normally expect one of the EP5’s that had similar or higher PF’s to end up in the winner’s circle, which is why Data Driven, with the highest prior PF went off at 2-1. However, his jockey, along with the others, fooled themselves into hanging too far back, and never had a chance.
Remember, from the most basic of Bill Quirin Speed Points tenets, that any front runner with a 2 point BQ advantage, or on a pace calculated as slow or medium, must be examined closely for a possible gate-to-wire victory. In this case, the pace of 19/24 points for the top 3 or 4 horses was medium, but it was also an 8f race, which is one of the shortest route races available.
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Here endeth the lesson.
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To get the Grid for all the major tracks this summmer click here.

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