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Weekend Winners Club

Sep 23 2016

$1.25 Million Penn Derby up for Grabs with Multiple Triple Crown Race Winners

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Friday, Sep. 23, 2016
Parx Philadelphia PA
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Philadelphia will be a racing epicenter this weekend as they host the first multimillion dollar race day in Parx history on Saturday, highlighted by the $300k Gallant Bob G3 sprint for 3yo’s, then the $1M Cotillon G1 for 3yo fillies, and finally the Pennsylvania Derby, that while a G2, is worth $1.25 million.
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The PA Derby is particularly exciting, as it will (again for the first time in history) include two Triple Crown race winners, and the top 3 Kentucky Derby finishers: Nyquist, Exaggerator, and Gun Runner. As you recall, Nyquist won the Derby and Exaggerator the Preakness.
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Nyquist and Exaggerator in Kentucky Derby

Nyquist and Exaggerator in Kentucky Derby


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What you may not know is that since then, they have done battle together again. In the Haskell Invitational G1 on 31 July, Exaggerator won impressively in his classic closing style, with Nyquist a solid 4th, 3 lengths back in his first race since the Prekaness and Gun Runner 5th.
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In late August, Exaggerator had his worst career race in the Travers G1, finishing 11th after being squeezed at the start and then eased. Meanwhile, Gun Runner held on for 3rd while getting beat by 15 lengths by Arrogate, who simply ran away with it while setting a new track record and the highest speed figures for any North American horse this year.
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Thus, although well beaten, the Gun Runner performance in the Travers appears to be superior numerically to any other’s in the field for their last 4 races, and better than the highest lifetime performance of any in the field except for perhaps Nyquist and Exaggerator.
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The Grid, Brisnet, and Beyer figures all agree that Arrogate’s performance was the top of the year by any horse at any distance, other than Frosted in the Met Mile. Gun Runner also now has the highest Grid and Bris figure for any in this race, with his Beyer only 1 point behind previous highs by Nyquist and Exaggerator.
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We may never how good that performance was by Arrogate in the Travers, but it was incredibly impressive as both the win and the numbers show. And we’ll have to wait to see if he can follow it up with a similar contest.
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For now, we have to consider that Gun Runner’s performance was also legit, and if you take Arrogate out of the race, he only finished a couple lengths back to American Freedom, who also finished a solid 2nd in the Haskell.
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Neither Arrogate or Freedom will be in the PA Derby, but it’s competitive enough already. Awesome Slew throws his hooves into the ring after a 7L runaway victory in the Smarty Jones G3 right here at Parx on Sep.5, just ½ furlong shorter than today’s 9f contest.
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The numbers also show that Summer Revolution could be competitive, even if it will be his first 2-turn race. He’s had 3 so far, all at 7f, 2 wins and a 4th in the King’s Bishop at Saratoga, a few races before the Travers demolition.
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Hit it Once More seems to be an afterthought in his first graded stakes race, but has two solid front running stakes wins. He is not likely to get the lead on his own due to the presence of other E8’s, such as Cupid who will also vie for the lead. Connect looks to improve on his 6th place Travers.
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Download Parx Grid here free to do your own analysis

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