Weekend Winners Club

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Monday, May 1
Churchill Downs
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Major Preps for the Kentucky Derby
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I wanted to do a short video about this but maybe I’ll roll it into just one Derby preview video with some other factors involved. Time is limited right now leading up to the Derby. It’s definitely worth some coverage.
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The graphic below is very telling, and mostly self explanatory. Let’s start with the major purpose of the article: that by far, most Kentucky Derby champions finished 1st or 2nd in their final preps, most of which were major preps, meaning the top 6: Florida, Arkansas, Santa Anita, Louisiana, Wood, and Blue Grass.
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We’ll start with the key stats, from the 20 years 1997-2016:
18 Derby champions finished 1st or 2nd in final prep
12 winners and 6 runners up
The 2 remaining finished 4th in their final prep
Of these final preps won by Derby champs, only 4 of them were not major preps: Lexington, Spiral, Sunland, and Illinois, and of those 4 only 1 did not win that prep (Mine that Bird, 4th in Sunland Derby, which did not even matter because he had already been invited to the Derby, pre-points system)
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So what exactly are we looking at? 12 possible winners of the Derby? Most likely but not exactly. The Lexington and Illinois winners aren’t in the field. The Spiral winner is, but he’s a throw out. Slowest horse in the field but may not finish last because of running style.
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That leaves us the Sunland Derby, now a semi-major that is part of the Derby Championship Series. The winner, Hence, got 50 points which was more than enough to get into the Kentucky Derby this year. The runner-up of that race also qualified, beating all but 2yo champ Classic Empire in the Arkansas, including 3 others in the Kentucky Derby field.
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So we need to look at the Sunland as a serious Derby prep, and Hence as a legitimate Derby contender. We would include the aforementioned runner-up, but Conquest Mo Money will not be racing again until the Preakness, which he’ll probably win.
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We’re not done yet, however. It’s actually possible, as aforementioned, that a horse finished as far down as 4th in his final prep and won the Derby. I don’t think any horse has ever won that didn’t finish top 4 in his final prep. But this would add almost every horse in the field, after we just narrowed it down to about 13. That’s why we need to look at the relevance of the final preps.
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Prep relevance, from least to most:
Wood Memorial: has become almost irrelevant since 2003, producing no Derby champs and only 2 that finished in the money. We don’t want to believe it this year with the great Irish War Cry, but he’s the only one running for the roses from that race.

Blue Grass: Although just about an hour away from Churchill, this prep has been losing relevance since Street Sense prepped there in a meaningless race for him, having already a Derby ticket. Before and after that, no Derby champions. Regardless, we have to give it some credibility this year. Irap finished 4th to Hence in the Sunland, but improved greatly. Practical Joke is no joke. The top 3 could all theoretically hit the board.
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Louisiana Derby: Increasing in relevance the past decade, with 3 that finished in the money in the Kentucky Derby, but still no champions. Girvin has done little wrong and keeps improving. He leads in Derby points, and you have to win some major preps to do that. Only 4 lifetime races.
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Santa Anita Derby: The 2nd most prominent prep in recent years, giving us 2 Derby champions in the last 4 years, including super horse California Chrome who won the Dubai World Cup. Last year Exaggerator was 3rd and won the Preakness. Regardless, I’m not giving any of them a shot this year, because they haven’t beat anyone else in the Derby field.
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Florida Derby: The most important prep of this century and the past 2 decades, producing 5 Kentucky Derby champions and 2 runners up, including when it was spaced early enough that great champions like Empire Maker and Monarchos ran in the Wood also. This year’s Always Dreaming needs to be taken seriously. I also give Gunnevera some credence but not runner-up State of Honor.
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Arkansas Derby: Increasing in relevance the past 20 years, several Derby, Preakness, and Belmont champs and runners-up, and finally American Pharoah, the first Triple Crown Champ since 1978. It is this year’s most relevant prep, because not only does it have 4 in the Derby field, but 3 of those have a legit chance to win it. It would have had 6 in the Derby field, but 2 of them dropped out that had qualified, including the runner up, and Malagacy who faded to 5th. Those that finished in the top 4: 2yo champ Classic Empire, Lookin at Lee, and Sonneteer, all have a good chance. The last 2 mentioned have never been passed in 19 combined career races. Good closers.
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So to sum up the above relevance analysis, I managed to narrow it down to 10 based on final preps:
Arkansas: Classic Empire, Lookin at Lee, and Sonneteer
Florida: Always Dreaming and Gunnevera
Santa Anita: Mastery was a legit leader in So.Cal, but got injured, leaving nobody worthwhile.
Wood: Irish War Cry
Blue Grass: Irap and Practical Joke
Louisiana: Girvin
Sunland: Hence (and Irap already mentioned)
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Get the 2017 Kentucky Derby Grid, including scores of critical factors like those covered above.

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