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Weekend Winners Club

May 04 2017

Kentucky Derby 2017 Pace Scenario Analysis

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Thursday, May 4
Churchill Downs
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It seems like I find myself saying this a lot in recent years, but once again, this year’s Kentucky Derby doesn’t have a whole lot of pace in it. Such has been the case the past 3 years when early running types won the Derby, and a couple long shot frontrunners even managed to get into 2nd.
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There were 3 key defections over the past month that led to this: Malagacy, Battalion Runner, Conquest Mo Money all bowed out, making it 2 true front runners and an very early runner that are out even though they had the points to get in.
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Here is the field in terms of their running style and Quirin speed points.
Note E= Early runner, EP= Early Presser, P= Pace Presser, S= Sustained runner
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1 Lookin At Lee 20-1 S0
2 Thunder Snow 20-1 EP5
3 Fast And Accurate 50-1 EP7
4 Untrapped 30-1 P2
5 Always Dreaming 5-1 EP7
6 State Of Honor 30-1 E7
7 Girvin 15-1 P1
8 Hence 15-1 S1
9 Irap 20-1 EP6
10 Gunnevera 15-1 S0
11 Battle Of Midway 30-1 EP7
12 Sonneteer 50-1 S1
13 J Boys Echo 20-1 P1
14 Classic Empire 4-1 EP6
15 Mccraken 5-1 S3
16 Tapwrit 20-1 P2
17 Irish War Cry 6-1 EP8
18 Gormley 15-1 EP5
19 Practical Joke 20-1 P2
20 Patch 30-1 P3
A Royal Mo 50-1 E7

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The Derby is now left with no true frontrunners and only 4 that actually vie for the lead at an early part of the race. Two of these now have a great chance: Irish War Cry and Always Dreaming, and 2 that probably still have no chance at the purse but might: Fast and Accurate and State of Honor. Regardless, they will all likely be part of the pace scenario going into the stretch.
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Irish War Cry gets big Wood

Irish War Cry should get a good pace setup


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This sets up well also for Classic Empire, Irap, Gormley, Thunder Snow, and Battle of Midway as fellow early running types that press the pace throughout the race. Of those, the first 3 have shown the class to actually win a Grade 1 race.
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Others that come from mid pack such as Untrapped, J Boys Echo, Tapwrit, Practical Joke, Girvin and Patch are all offered a decent chance to hit the board under this scenario. Of these, I would give the last 4 a chance based on class.
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Sustained runners like Hence, Gunnevera, Sonneteer, Mccraken, and Lookin at Lee will have a hell of a time getting up to the wire in time if the pace is soft and they gallop around for the first half mile or so. These are the best closers in the race, but will likely need to be a bit closer than usual to have a chance.
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Of course, we’re not the only people that study this. The jockeys and trainers are all aware of the current situation and most will have their contingencies set. That almost never includes changing a horse’s running style completely, but that has happened. See Mine That Bird.
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Some will have little choice in the matter. The closers will have to gallop around for at least half a mile or so before even thinking about making their big move. If they move too early they’ll flatten, so the riders have to gauge how fast the frontrunners are going.
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The early running riders will be focused on keeping their horse reserved and relaxed early to have plenty in the tank for the stretch run in a race longer than any of the horses have had before. But since none of them are true frontrunners, they are unlikely to get in a suicidal speed duel early.
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The most likely change would involve the pace pressers putting a lot more pressure than usual on the pace if the riders feel that there is too much lollygagging on the front end. This results in a large group vying up front in a more heated pace, and a better scenario for the closers.
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Based on the current pace scenario as is, I would have to pick a top 5 of Classic Empire, Irish War Cry, Always Dreaming, Irap and Gormley. I’d even give Thunder Snow and Battle of Midway a shot to finish in the money. The later runners will have their work cut out for them, unless there are some significant deviations from this pace scenario.
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Get the full 2017 Kentucky Derby Grid Here with over 80 different factors including pedigree, performance, and historical criteria!

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