Weekend Winners Club

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Monday, May 8
Churchill Downs
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In the aftermath of the Kentucky Derby, there are plenty of Monday morning armchair quarterbacks with hindsight of 20/20. But why don’t you listen to somebody that knew what he was talking about beforehand, and won a 50 cent trifecta for $4100 (before they took out taxes sigh) instead of those who are pretending to know what they were talking about now that they know the results.
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For this, we’re just going to go back through my Kentucky Derby articles, from the most recent and on back to a couple weeks beforehand, and you tell me who actually knew what they were talking about BEFOREHAND. So pay attention here, and you might just learn something.
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The very last article pre-Derby was the Kentucky Derby 2017 Pace Scenario Analysis.
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In this article, I outlined that the race seemed to be devoid of pace, giving edge to those running near the pace.
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My final paragraph began, “Based on the current pace scenario as is, I would have to pick a top 5 of Classic Empire, Irish War Cry, Always Dreaming, Irap and Gormley. I’d even give Thunder Snow and Battle of Midway a shot to finish in the money.”
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As it turned out, the pace ended up quite speedy up front, and although Irish War Cry couldn’t hold on, the winner did, and so did Battle of Midway, mentioned as a long shot that nobody else gave much credit to. Classic Empire also got into the mix, and as usual, a random closer finished in the mix, as Lookin at Lee apparently loved the sloppy sealed surface at Churchill.
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The article before that was titled: 2017 Kentucky Derby Contender Sires and Sirelines
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In this article, I outlined the sires and sirelines, as indicated by the title. One of the first points made was that the Raise a Native (RAN) sireline had won 13 of the last 24 Kentucky Derby editions. As it turned out, RAN also finished 1st-4th in the Derby this year.
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I described the sires and lines in order of what I felt was most relevant to least relevant. The first 5 horses I listed were Irish War Cry, Always Dreaming, Classic Empire, Lookin at Lee, and Battle of Midway. Note that 4 of those finished 1-4, comprising the Derby superfecta. Enough said.
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The article prior to that was called: Major Kentucky Derby Preps 1997-Present.
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In this article, it was described how the Derby champion and other top finishers normally come from the top 2 in a major prep race, and lists those races. The article concluded that the top contenders based on prep races were, in order of relevance:
Arkansas: Classic Empire, Lookin at Lee, and Sonneteer
Florida: Always Dreaming and Gunnevera
Wood: Irish War Cry
Blue Grass: Irap and Practical Joke
Louisiana: Girvin
Sunland: Hence (and Irap already mentioned)
(Santa Anita was mentioned as a throwout race with no good contenders)
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From here, I can see 3 of the top 5 Derby finishers in the first 4 horses listed. Enough of that one.
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The previous article was entitled: 2017 Kentucky Derby Final ¼ Mile Times in Contender Preps.
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As the title indicates, this article provided the last ¼ Mile fraction calculations for the contenders in their final prep races, a calculation which I failed to find elsewhere on the internet, so I may be the only free provider of such info in the world.
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The results here also give you a good idea of who the top late runners in the field were. The Kentucky Derby 1, 2, and 4 finishers Always Dreaming, Lookin at Lee, and Classic Empire were 3-4-5 on this, part of an elite group of 6 with final quarter-mile fractions of less than 25 seconds. Once again, enough on that matter.
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The last relevant article prior to that was Doug’s Double Derby Dozen April 17 created after the final prep races were over. .
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This was simply the final rankings that we came out with for the Derby contenders. The 1st, 2nd, and 4th place Derby finishers Always Dreaming, Lookin at Lee, and Classic Empire were ranked 4th, 8th, and 1st. Now I don’t know of anyone else who even had Lookin at Lee in their top 10 at any time all year.
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Again, we didn’t rank Battle of Midway very highly, but felt that the Santa Anita Derby itself was kind of a throwout, void of any top contenders. Battle of Midway either really liked the surface, or took a step up in class, or both.
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The point of this article isn’t to brag, but if you got better information, analysis or rankings elsewhere, please let me know. This is just to show you a stark difference between the Monday morning QB’s, and those that were quarterbacking every day leading up to the Derby with good solid information and analysis.
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Note that 3 of the top 4 Derby finishers were mentioned and highly ranked repeatedly in EVERY article. The other one, wild card Battle of Midway was mentioned highly in the pace analysis and sire analysis, fortunately, even if he didn’t rank highly in some other categories. Again, show me one source that has all 4 top finishers ranking highly in all their analyses. Not happening.
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