Powered by Jasper Roberts - Blog

Weekend Winners Club

May 09 2017

Preakness 2017 Probables Early Analysis and Easy Historical Handicapping Method

.
Tuesday, May 9
Pimlico, Baltimore, MD
.
I saw a silly post on Facebook right after the Kentucky Derby asking ā€œCan Always Dreaming win the Preakness?ā€ to which various people chimed in their 2 cents worth, including one ridiculous answer of ā€œnot a chance.ā€ I replied something sarcastic like ā€œImpossible. No Derby champ has ever gone on to win the Preakness.ā€
.
The point of this is that the question itself is ridiculous; because the fact of it is that the Kentucky Derby champion goes on to win the Preakness just as often as it does not. It is almost the norm nowadays. Consider the chart below, indicating that the Derby champ has won 10 of the past 20 Preakness Stakes.
.

How Kentucky Derby top 4 fared in Preakness, 1997-2016

How Kentucky Derby top 4 fared in Preakness, 1997-2016


.
In addition to the great 50% winning mark over the last 20 years, the Derby champ is NEVER a throwout in the Preakness, finishing in the top 3 80% of the time. That figure would be astounding for any other horse. The Derby champ must ALWAYS be reckoned with in the Preakness if he runs in it.
.
When the champ is also an early or early-presser (E/EP) type runner, it has even a better winning percentage, with 9 of the last 12 going on to win the Preakness. The running style for Always Dreaming is thus perfectly suited for the Preakness, like many of his predecessors who won both.
.
Always Dreaming is the horse to beat in the Preakness, with Johnny V up.

Always Dreaming is the horse to beat in the Preakness, with Johnny V up.


.
Further, you must look at the rest of the top 4 Derby finishers closely as well. With those, you add 4 more Preakness champions, making it 70% of Preakness winners coming from the Derby superfecta. In fact, the Derby top 4 have finished in the Preakness super 35 times out of the last 46 runners.
.
Which Derby champions typically donā€™t win the Preakness? Normally those that come from way off the pace. Yes itā€™s true that Exaggerator and Lookin at Lucky won the Preakness, but they were not Derby champions, they were great closers, and they took advantage of the pace scenario on that day.
.
The norm, however, is for early and early/presser (E/EP) running types to win the Preakness, to the tune of 15 of the last 20 Preakness champions. Finishing 2nd-4th in the Preakness is a conglomeration of all types of runners, including some of the best closers in history like Derby champions Monarchos, Fusaichi Pegasus and Street Sense, who did not win the Preakness.
.
See Exhibit B: The other side of the coin. Top 4 Preakness finishers and where they finished in the Kentucky Derby, if they actually ran in it. You can see that all but 3 of the last 20 came from the Derby, all of which finished 6th or better in the run for the roses. So top 6 Derby horses account for 85% of the past 20 Preakness champs.
.
How the Preakness top 4 previously fared in the Kentucky Derby, last 20 years

How the Preakness top 4 previously fared in the Kentucky Derby, last 20 years


.
In addition, over 50% of Preakness place, show, and 4th place horses also came from Kentucky Derby runners, including about 40% of the place and show horses coming from the Derby top 4. This shows beyond a reasonable doubt that the Kentucky Derby is the first place you need to look not only for the Preakness champ, but also to formulate your Preakness exotics.
.
The bottom line is that only 3 of the last 20 Preakness champs did not run in the Kentucky Derby, and less than 50% of each of the Place, Show, and 4th place horses did not run for the roses. But each year is different, and it also means that we will have to investigate the Derby ā€˜outsidersā€™ since they typically put 1 and sometimes 2 horses into the Preakness superfecta. (In 2008 only 1 Derby horse dared run against Big Brown in the Preakness and failed miserably.)
.
We shall inspect those horses further as the field narrows down, but certainly horses such as Conquest Mo Money and Malagacy, both of which ran a big Arkansas Derby, could make some serious noise in the Preakness after resting up on the sidelines while others were exhausting themselves in the slop at Churchill. Cloud Computing also points to Pimlico.
.

Horse Last Race Odds
Always Dreaming 1st Kentucky Derby 1-1
Classic Empire 4th Kentucky Derby 6-1
Irish War Cry 10th Kentucky Derby 7-1
Lookin at Lee 2nd Kentucky Derby 12-1
Gunnevera 7th Kentucky Derby 14-1
Battle of Midway 3rd Kentucky Derby 14-1
Cloud Computing 3rd Wood Memorial 16-1
Conquest Mo Money 2nd Arkansas Derby 16-1
Malagacy 5th Arkansas Derby 16-1
Royal Mo 3rd Santa Anita Dby 16-1
Practical Joke 5th Kentucky Derby 20-1
Hence 11th Kentucky Derby 20-1
Multiplier 1st Illinois Derby 20-1
Senior Investment 1st Lexington Stakes 25-1

.
For now, your key Preakness horses are Always Dreaming, Lookin at Lee, Battle of Midway, and Classic Empire. It wouldnā€™t surprise me to see at least 1 of those skip the Preakness, especially Lookin at Lee, on a track that seldom favors late runners at this distance. But it also shouldnā€™t surprise anyone if 2 or 3 of those finish in the top 4 in the Preakness, especially the Derby champ.

Full Preakness Day and Black Eyes Susan Grids Available Here

No responses yet

Trackback URI | Comments RSS

Leave a Reply