Weekend Winners Club

May 17 2017

Preakness Post Positions drawn. Final field of 10 revealed. Grid PP’s and longshots

.
Wednesday, May 17
Pimlico, MD
.
In what may be the final Preakness Stakes ever run at Pimlico, the final field has been determined with post positions and morning lines.
.
Not surprisingly, Kentucky Derby favorite and champion Always Dreaming is the favorite, with 4th place finisher Classic Empire the 2nd choice.
.

Preakness 2017 field and Grid snapshot

Preakness 2017 field and Grid snapshot


.
What may surprise some is that the only other early runner in the field, Conquest Mo Money, is listed at 15-1. Despite a strong Arkansas Derby in which he was eventually caught by only the 2yo champ Classic Empire, he skipped the Derby to point to this race.
.
Clearly the most dangerous and only other speedster in the field, his odds will not be double digits at post time, and he will likely be the 3rd betting choice. However, he also may be the only one that can actually beat the entire field including Always Dreaming.
.
 Arkansas Derby duo Classic Empire and Conquest Mo Money are the two that can beat Always Dreaming in the Preakness

Arkansas Derby duo Classic Empire and Conquest Mo Money are the two that can beat Always Dreaming in the Preakness


.
This year’s Preakness is almost devoid of speed besides these two. Classic Empire and Cloud Computing will press the pace, but neither has ever been in the lead at first call in a race, because that’s not their style.
.
With the pace scenario as it is, it’s difficult to go beyond these 4 for the superfecta, but there are a couple others that have shown both the speed (overall not necessarily early) and class to get a piece of the pie.
.
Lookin at Lee is obviously one of them, by virtue of his 2nd place run for the roses, but this doesn’t look like his race to win at all. Nor does it for the other late runners.
.
However, Multiplier and Hence are two that have put up performance figures speedy enough to possibly beat Always Dreaming, even in his last race. Plus, a late running winner in either the Sunland Derby or Illinois Derby deserves close inspection.
.
For Hence, the Sunland Derby opened up with a suicide pace that even Conquest Mo Money couldn’t keep up with. Hence took advantage and won that race, but 2 weeks ago, ran into too much trouble, and perhaps a disliking of the Churchill surface.
.
In the Illinois Derby, about a month ago, Multiplier didn’t mind another mediocre pace, and won anyway in his 4th career race and 1st after finally breaking his maiden. So those are the 2 closers that I give the best chance at the purse to.
.
Download Preakness Grid right here free.
.
Looking at the field right now, I’d have to pick 3 early runners and 1 closer for the superfecta, because that’s usually how it ends up. In this case, there are only 3, maybe 4 early runners depending on you how you chart it anyway. The other common option is 2 early runners and 2 closers.
.
It also normally ends up with 3 Derby runners and 1 non Derby runner, as covered in the prior Preakness articles. This shouldn’t be shocking to anyone, it’s just a matter of history.
.
The most logical conclusion then, is for the two fastest Derby runners to finish in the money: Always Dreaming and Classic Empire. It actually would be a bit shocking to not see them both in the super, because neither has ever finished worse than 4th. They are both great champions already.
.
For the newcomer, it’s hard not to point to Conquest Mo Money to finish in the superfecta. He’s the closest thing to a true frontrunner in the field and displayed devastating speed and durability in his last 2 races. He’s in my super.
.
The last one in the top 4 gets tricky. We have Lookin at Lee, Gunnevera, and Hence from the Derby. One had his best career race, the latter had his best career race one before that at Sunland, beating Conquest Mo Money. Gunnevera is looking to bounce back from one of his worst career races.
.
But I can’t overlook Multiplier, and it could be one of those years where 2 outsiders take up part of the super. Plus, we need to consider 5 horses at a minimum for the Super High 5 Score.
.
Multiplier has improved by an average of almost 10 points in each of his 4 career races, the latest being his first stakes race. His path and style maybe not conventional, but he’s shown the class to get it done.
.
I may include Lookin at Lee somewhere below in my exotics, just to not be stupid about it, but he’s most likely the odd one out, after 10 career races and coming off undoubtedly his best lifetime performance, he may be a bit spent.
.
Another I’ll include towards the bottom of the exotics is Cloud Computing, because he’s done well in his 3 career races and 1 of the only 4 in the field that’s not a late runner, in a field devoid of speed. With only 3 career races, he has the right to improve.
.
Right now if I had to pick that SH5, I’d do it like this:
Always Dreaming, Conquest Mo Money, Classic Empire as the key horses, then Hence, Gunnevera, Cloud Computing and Multiplier somewhere below. That probably won’t change much.
.
I’d like to bet my entire paycheck that at least 2 of my top 3 finish in the top 3, but they don’t offer such bets, so that’s why we need to use the others in the exotics.
.
Full Preakness and Black Eyed Susan Day Grids available here.

No responses yet

Trackback URI | Comments RSS

Leave a Reply