Weekend Winners Club

Jun 05 2017

Belmont Stakes 2017 Contender and Sire Analysis

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Monday, June 5
Elmont, NY
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Obtain Full Belmont Stakes Day June 10 Grid PP’s Here
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Probably Belmont Stakes Field:

1 Classic Empire 2-1
2 Epicharis 12-1
3 Gormley 12-1
4 Hollywood Handsome 30-1
5 Irish War Cry 8-1
6 J Boys Echo 20-1
7 Lookin At Lee 6-1
8 Meantime 28-1
9 Multiplier 22-1
10 Patch 20-1
11 Senior Investment 12-1
12 Tapwrit 8-1
13 Twisted Tom 25-1

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There were some nice sire analyses previously that hopefully helped you win some bets on the Derby and Preakness, including the now famous Kentucky Derby Contender Sire analysis, where 4 of the top 5 we listed were in the Derby superfecta.
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This week of course, we’ll look at the sire and sireline analysis in a similar relevant way for the Belmont stakes. You don’t need to like it or agree with the opinion portion, but the facts speak for themselves.
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Irish War Cry (10th Ky Derby): Curlin (Smart Strike, RAN) is one of the most successful young sires in North America and commands a heavy stud fee. The reason is that he is already from a successful sire line, and proved his worth on the track. He finished 3rd in Kentucky Derby, 1st in Preakness, and 2nd at Belmont in his Triple Crown series, won the BC Classic and other Grade 1 races. He was horse of the year as a 3yo and older male, and is the quintessential Triple Crown sire.

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Note: The RAN sireline is not only responsible for 14 of the last 25 Kentucky Derby and Preakness champions, including both of this year’s, but has fared even better in the Belmont, with 15 of the last 24. Despite the recent success of AP Indy’s offspring winning 2 of the last 3, he’s overdue again this year. Since 1995, the RAN line has not lost 2 consecutive Belmont Stakes, and this is the only current stretch where it has not won at least 3 of the last 5. (DUE)
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Raise a Native, founder of sireline with 20 Kentucky Derby , 19 Preakness, and 18 Belmont Champions

Raise a Native, founder of sireline with 20 Kentucky Derby , 19 Preakness, and 18 Belmont Champions


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Classic Empire (2nd Preakness): Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker, RAN) was all set to follow in his father’s footsteps, winning the Santa Anita Derby, then finishing a disappointing 2nd to long shot Mine that Bird in the Kentucky Derby. However, he struggled in the Preakness and was retired 2 months later. Grandsire Empire Maker was another all time Triple Crown great, finishing 2nd in the Derby to the horse he had beat in the Wood, then skipping the Preakness and winning the Belmont.
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Lookin at Lee (4th Preakness): Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike, RAN) was a solid 6th in the Kentucky Derby, and turned the tables to win the Preakness. He skipped the Belmont and went on to win the Haskell and Indiana Derby, and retired before the BC Classic. However, he still won 3yo American horse of the year honors, to go along with his 2yo champion award.
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Patch (14th Kentucky Derby): Union Rags (Dixie Union, ND) finished 7th in the Kentucky Derby, then redeemed himself by winning the Belmont Stakes after the defection of I’ll Have Another. So if you’re looking for a horse with a legit Belmont Stakes only sire, this is it.
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Epicharis (2nd UAE Derby): Gold Allure (Sunday Silence, Turn To) had a nice career in Japan, finishing 5th in the Japan Derby and winning 4 G1 events before retiring at age 4. In case you’re new to this sport, Sunday Silence was a champion 3yo after winning the Derby and Preakness, and finishing 2nd in the Belmont after kicking his trainer in the head the day before.

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Meantime (2nd Peter Pan): Shackleford (Forestry, Storm Cat) was an excellent 3yo frontrunner in both sprint and route races. He came up a head short in the Florida Derby, then a solid 4th in the Kentucky Derby, then finally held on the entire way for the Preakness win. The Belmont was a bit too far for his pedigree but he did finish a solid 5th. Shackleford became the first and only horse from the Storm Cat sireline to ever win a Triple Crown race in 2011. They have a poor record in the Belmont Stakes.
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Twisted Tom (1st Federico Tesio): Creative Cause (Giant’s Causeway, Storm Cat) was another legit Storm Cat contender that never won a Triple Crown. He did respectably finish 5th in the Ky Derby and 3rd in the Preakness before retiring without ever racing again. Before that he won 3 graded stakes. Giant’s Causeway was of course a great European champion who is best remembered in the US for losing the Breeders Cup Classic by a nose to the only 2 time BCC Champion Tiznow. He was also the leading North American sire 2 years in a row.
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Gormley (9th Kentucky Derby): Malibu Moon (AP Indy, BR) is a top 5 North American sire, who finally proved he was a direct descendant of AP Indy by spawning Kentucky Derby champion Orb a few years ago. He did nothing on the race track and was retired early, however clearly still has some great TC genes.
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J Boys Echo (15th Ky Derby): Mineshaft (AP Indy, BR) is the latest great one in the Bold Ruler sireline that included Seattle Slew and AP Indy. Mineshaft got a late start in US racing after transferring from Great Britain, and was busy breaking his maiden while others were running in TC races. In his 4 year old season he dominated and won US horse of the year and champion older male honors.
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Tapwrit (6th Ky Derby): Tapit (Pulpit, API) was one of the most overrated TC horses ever, being hyped up greatly after winning the Wood, before finishing 9th in the Derby. He has been a successful sire thus far, with his overhyped Tapwrit being the most expensive auctioned colt in the field at $1.2 million.
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Senior Investment (3rd Preakness): Discreetly Mine (Mineshaft, AP Indy) was pointed to the Triple Crown after winning the Risen Star but later returned to win a couple sprint stakes and retired as a 3yo. Mineshaft got a late start in US racing after transferring from Great Britain, and was busy breaking his maiden while others were running in TC races. In his 4 year old season he dominated and won US horse of the year and champion older male honors.
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Multiplier (6th Preakness): The Factor (War Front, ND) looked like he would be a factor in the Triple Crown series of 2011 after winning the Rebel Stakes. However, after a 7th place finish in the Arkansas, he took the summer off and came back to win 3 G1 races that year and the next, all of which were at 7f, and a couple of good 2nd place finishes in G1s. So far, no great Triple Crown offspring from him and no TC winners from War Front yet either.
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Hollywood Handsome (1st, ALW 51k): Tapizar (Tapit, API) was another in the long list of overrated horses coming from the overhyped Tapit. It looked like he would become part of the Triple Crown picture after winning the Sham, but only mustered 5th in the RB Lewis and didn’t race again until October. He did go on to win 3 more stakes races, most importantly the BC Dirt Mile as a 4yo.
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