Weekend Winners Club

Jun 10 2017

Belmont Stakes Final Picks: Who can beat Irish War Cry?

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Saturday, June 10
Belmont Park
Elmont, NY
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The final picks are in for the Belmont Stakes, finally. It’s been a topsy turvy work with a lot of turmoil, including not just 1 of my Belmont favorites scratching or defecting, but 2 of them this time. Classic Empire, who would have been the prohibitive favorite, was the first out, withdrawing early in the week with a hoof abscess.
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Everything looked fine from thereon out, until my personal wise guy value longshot pick Epicharis came up lame in front leg on Wednesday night. They treated him and planned on racing him anyway, after shipping from across the planet. But alas, it would probably be foolish and they scratched today.
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This leaves us even with less speed than before, as both of these horses were early runners and there are only 4 early runners left. However, the 2 speediest horses are still there. Meantime is an E8 and will assume the early lead or at least be on the pace, barring any extreme abnormalities, with EP7h Irish War Cry the other that will be pressing the pace or assuming the lead if Meantime doesn’t for some reason.
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Twisted Tom and Gormley will be in chase close up to the pace, and then there may be a gap before we reach Patch and J Boys Echo in some kind of mid-pack formation, of which Tapwrit will likely be rounding out the back of. Towards the rear will be the rest of the late runners, plodders, and lollygaggers in some type of formation.
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After Meantime and Irish War Cry run 1-2 for most of the way, giving the longshot Meantime’s backers reason to stand up and start having orgasms before the 2 minute mark, Irish War Cry takes the lead going into the stretch. As it looks like he will pull away from everyone else like he does from Meantime, he does not.
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In the stretch, it becomes a battle of attrition as usual in the Belmont Stakes, with those having the pedigree for top-speed staying power at this distance gaining. Patch gains a few feet with every stride and noses up in the end over Irish War Cry.
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Patch, endearing heartbreaker of the Derby, sets his eye on the Belmont Stakes

Patch, endearing heartbreaker of the Derby, sets his eye on the Belmont Stakes


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Like his sire Union Rags, Patch wins the Belmont. Like his sire, Irish War Cry loses a close Belmont, but unlike his sire, doesn’t win a single Triple Crown race. Irish War Cry goes on to win 3yo horse of the year after winning 2/3 of the Haskell, Travers, and Breeders Cup Classic, but that’s for later.
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J Boys Echo makes a heroic effort to show up late, as does Lookin at Lee as usual, and Multiplier, to round out the top 5. It’s uncertain if Meantime hangs on for a piece of the pie but he could. Gormley may also be the one that holds on for some of the purse, as he is due for a big race again.
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Crapwrit will take a bunch of people’s hard-earned money as usual, and suck as usual. Senior Investment will bounce after his best career race. Sorry, Channing.
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Complete throwouts that don’t belong in the race: Twisted Tom and Hollywood Handsome. Sorry, Florent and Javier, but you will not be anywhere near the top 5.
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What about Mike Smith and Baffert winning every dirt race so far? That’s true, but they also had the best horse and the favorite in each race. This race, not so much. But I AM giving Meantime a chance to finish in the money.
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Here’s how I’ll rank them for betting purposes for the exotics.
Patch
Irish War Cry
J Boys Echo
Meantime
Lookin at Lee
Multiplier
Gormley
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Yes, the 1 eyed bandit that captured everyone’s hearts then broke them in the semi-muddy surface at Churchill Downs the first Saturday

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