Weekend Winners Club

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Saturday, November 25, Churchill Downs. It was an exciting Two Year Old Day at Churchill, with 12 races dedicated to 2yo’s, highlighted by the Golden Rod G2 for fillies and Kentucky Jockey Club G2 for all 2yos. But you may be surprised at who put up the best numbers on this day.
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One of the reasons they dedicate the entire day to 2yo’s is so that the connections can see how their horses measure up to over 100 other horses on dirt (there were only 2 turf races), whether they ran in the same race or not. To help them out, we did some analysis for them.
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It was the fillies that won the day according to the stopwatch. We only have 5 categories here, but the fillies were tops in all but one of them. The fastest final ¼ mile in sprint and route, fastest 6f race, and fastest mile all belonged to the fillies today.
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The males had one token win: Fastest opening 6f in route race with time of 1.10.93 by Dreamer’s Point, who did not win the 8f race after going that fast early. He edged out Monomoy Girl who in the previous race hit 1.11.11 en route to the fastest mile of the day in 1.36.59.
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Monomoy Girl also went a bit too fast early, getting necked out at the wire by Road to Victory in the G2 Golden Rod. The 2nd fastest mile did belong to Ebben, who did not need to go an extra half furlong in his optional claiming race, making Monomoy Girl’s mile still more impressive.
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The best stretch runner in the 8+ furlong category was Red Ruby, winning her 8.5f maiden special weight coming home in 24.92. This was less than 3/10ths better than Cosmic Burst who got it done in 25.18 winning his optional claimer at 8f.
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The fastest sprinters were also fillies. Fastest 6f time of the day was registered by Mia Mischief at 1.09.66 in her optional claiming win at 6.5f. The best overall final ¼ time of the day was had by Bootsy’s Hadenough in her 6f MSW win.
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The final time of the Goldenrod G2 was also over a full second faster than that of the KYJC G2, as Road to Victory registered 1.43.36 for the 8.5f win. Monomoy Girl would have the 2nd fastest 8.5 time of about 1.43.40, still a full second ahead of the males.
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The track likely dried out during the day to some extent, so the races did play slightly differently, and widely different pace scenarios. But with the G2 races only an hour apart, it’s safe to say the apples are comparable. The male G2 winner Enticed would have finished a distant 3rd in the Goldenrod, with Tiz Mischief right behind him in 4th.
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The dubious honor of the day goes to the last race, another MSW worth 60k for 2yos, which had a poor start. This one managed the slowest opening 2f, half mile, 6f time, mile, and 8.5f time of all the races. Due to the embarrassing pace, it managed to not finish last in the final ¼ time, just edging out the Goldenrod, which as covered was run with very fast opening fractions. The dawdling fractions were set at: 24.52, 49.36, 1.14.37, 1.39.89, 1.46.52.
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Bonus: Winning horses according to the Grid. (Download Saturday Grid here to follow )
Race 1: 1st LP, 1st stam, 2nd power, 2nd best PF
Race 2: Top PF, 2nd across the board other categories
Race 3: Nobody’s charts gave you this 19-1 winner.
Race 4: 1st LP, 2nd stam, 3rd best PF
Race 5: 1st in all categories
Race 6: 1st in all categories
Race 7: Top PF, 1st or 2nd in all others
Race 8: 3rd PF, 2nd LP, 2nd stam
Race 9: Winner tough to get on paper, wise guy turf to dirt in 2nd lifetime race special
Race 10: 3rd best route PF, 3rd in EP,
Race 11: 2nd best route PF, 3rd in power, speed, EP.
Race 12: 3rd in LP and stam
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Thus wraps up today’s analysis. Hopefully this helps you handicap the 2yo’s going forward. Obviously, Road to Victory and Monomoy Girl are for real, and have their long term sights locked onto the Kentucky Oaks here in about 5 months. The Derby hopeful males here today need to improve.

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