Weekend Winners Club

May 05 2016

Derby Grid

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The Kentucky Derby Grid is what used to be a unique item (before people started attempting to copy it and sell it) that combines a plethora of pedigree and performance info into historical criteria to select Derby champions and contenders.
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Of course, we can’t give away the Grid for free, and have to charge for it since countless hours go into research and development of the best Derby handicapping tool ever made.
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There are cheap knockoffs, notably the Super Stinker, which has better marketing and not as good information. There are others that have tried but can’t compare.
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The Grid has the basic info of course, but also advanced pedigree information such as average winning distance, various wet track ratings, and of course dosage information.
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The Derby Grid also has 3 sets of speed figures, plus aggregate ratings for late pace, stamina, power, speed, and early pace. It also shows how that horse compares to historical criteria of Derby champions.
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What did the 2016 Kentucky Derby 142 Grid say about the contenders? Download it here and follow along.
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Most notably, it shows Derby runner up and Preakness winner Exaggerator as the highest ranked horse. In fact, he not only ranked highest in the historical and critical factors scores, but was perfect in both, scoring 14 and 18. In fact, he only missed on 1 of 30 total criteria: “Strong previous Churchill dirt race,” but he did however have 2 strong Keeneland races in 2015 including the BCJ.
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But that’s not all he had. If you look at the performance section, he had the highest Beyer, the 2nd highest Bris figure, and 2nd highest Grid figure. He also had the highest average speed in all 3 of those sets of PF’s. He had a top 5 LP and if you were using him for Preakness, a top 5 wet track rating.
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The next strongest critical criteria contenders according to the Grid scored 16 and there were five of them. Among them were Gun Runner, who finished 3rd, Mohaymen, who was 4th and Destin who 6th in the Derby. Two others scored 15, including the champion Nyquist, who was an obvious choice to finish at least in the money.
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Nyquist beats Exaggerator and Gun Runner for the Roses

Nyquist beats Exaggerator, Gun Runner, and Mohaymen, top 4 in Derby Grid
Bill Thiry Photo


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In the historical score factor, only 7 contenders besides Exaggerator had the required minimum of at least 12 points. Once again, Nyquist, Gun Runner, and Mohaymen were part of that group.
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Nyquist also had the 2nd highest performance figures average, and had previously beaten not only every horse he ever faced, but the top challengers in the Derby, including Exaggerator and Mohaymen. Mohaymen was tied for the 3rd highest performance figure average, with Destin, and also had the highest LP rating.
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The Grid has an “overall rank” score next to the critera summaries which is a weighted average of how the horses rank in different categories. The horses ranked that ranked 1st and the 2 that tied for 3rd in that overall ranking finished 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in the Derby respectively. The horse ranked 6th finished 6th.
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So you might be questioning how we get Nyquist on top using the Grid? You don’t. He was the undefeated champion and favorite who had already beaten all of the top contenders in the field except for Gun Runner and Destin, who he hadn’t faced yet.
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The way they prepped him for the race was very calculated, and consequently he missed on several categories, such as at least 3 3yo preps. Most of the other extra criteria he missed on were due to his success as a 2yo: being the BCJ champ and 2yo highweight is actually a negative score in the Grid. But he still was in that group that scored at least 12 and 15 in the important scores.
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Besides if you couldn’t figure out Nyquist was a legitimate contender, you have really no business betting on horses at all. The odds alone could give you Nyquist, the Grid gave you the rest of the superfecta.
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Final 2016 Kentucky Derby Grid shows Exaggerator ranked 1st, Gun Runner and Mohaymen tied for 3rd.

Final 2016 Kentucky Derby Grid shows Exaggerator ranked 1st, Gun Runner and Mohaymen tied for 3rd.


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Download 2017 Kentucky Derby Grid Here with full field, odds, posts, and over 80 different factors including pedigree, performance, and historical criteria!
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