Weekend Winners Club

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Saturday June 28 2025.

Today Churchill Downs offers over $3.3M in purse money on their 12 race card which includes 6 stakes races, featuring the Stephen Foster G1 and Fleur de Lis G2, both of which carry automatic entries into the Breeders’ Cup later this year.

We’ll go thru it race by race, getting to the key races later, but start off with today’s Grid for Churchill Downs which you can right here for free: CDX06282025G

Keep in mind we will be focusing on long shots and horses with good value on the morning line. Anyone can brag about favorites.

R1:  anything can go in a MSW with almost all first time starters.  Bet on some good long shots.

R2: the only value I see here is the first time starter for Brendan Walsh and Irad Ortiz up, at 10-1.

R3:  no value and I would actually  be surprised if Fountain Lake doesn’t win it.

R4:  here’s where we start getting some value. 2,3, 5, 6, 7, 8 all have good ML odds and have just as much a right to win as the favorite.

R5: is a short field and chalky, but 1 Incursion at 12-1 has as much right to win as any.

R6: has a large field and a lot of unproven maidens, so anything goes.  If Lost and Found at 10-1 improves at all in his 2^nd outing, he could take it easily.  The first timers for Asmussen and Albert Stall also offer great value at 15-1.

R7:  let’s say ugh to a 5 horse field in a G2 race and not even bet it, but it will be competitive.

R8: looks like a 2 horse race on paper, but a superfecta requires 4.  Add Something Stronger and Princesss Attitude at 10-1 each, to your exotic bets. Either could easily win so box em up.

R9: this G3 looks exciting but chalky.  Add Happy is a Choice and Durante for some value.

R10:.  This race is very competitive with only one throw-out. there will be only 2 horses on double digit odds at post time, and the one I would include in your exotics is 1 Henro at 20-1ML, who could thrive his first time on turf.

R11:  it’s sad to see the Stephen Foster G1 reduced to a field of only 6, but it will be a very competitive race.  Everyone will be less than 5-1 except the long shot who has no chance. Not a great betting race, but 2024 Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan looks primed for a big one, and he’s 2 for 2 at Churchill now, including his Blame G3 win last out.

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2024 Kentucky Derby champion Mystik Dan

R12:  the American Derby is also sadly shortened to a field of 6 after scratches but will be competitive.  Minaret Station showed great improvement winning the Bourbon G3 last out, and should have good value even tho the 15-1 odds will come down a bit.  Freedom’s Not Free could go gate to wire.

Weather is partly sunny now in Louisville but there is a good chance of rain, so that could become a factor in the later races.  The favorites are also proven mudders so it won’t make a huge difference.

As always, you can get The Grid for all your favorite tracks and races at HorseRaceBetWin.com and remember to subscribe to this weekly podcast wherever you listen.

Good luck today!  Dalton 😀

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