Weekend Winners Club

Saturday, April 15
Hot Springs, Ark
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It’s the biggest and last day of meet for Oaklawn Park today, as they will run 12 races, with 3 graded stakes, and culminating in the famous Trails End 14 furlong battle of attrition. The highlights of the day are the stakes races, including the G1 Oaklawn Handicap and G1 Arkansas Derby.

The Arkansas Derby is choc full of talent this year, containing 6 colts currently ranked in our top 24 Doug’s Double Derby Dozen. 5 of these need to finish somewhere in the top 4 because they are all currently outside of the top 20 in Kentucky Derby points.

Those needing in and already have some points but not enough, are Classic Empire, Petrov, Lookin at Lee, Sonneteer, and Untrapped. Any of these will get into a run for the roses with a 1st or 2nd place finish, and others need at least 3rd. Any of the 12 horses in the field would get in with a win, and others will need at least a 2nd place finish.

In fact, the only horse in the field with enough points already is current co-favorite Malagacy, looking strong after his stakes in which he beat all 5 of the others mentioned, away in the Rebel G2 here at Oaklawn last month, after Todd Pletcher was unsure whether he would even put him on the Triple Crown trail.

Co favorite Classic Empire is one of those on the bubble, making it probably the first time in modern history that the reigning 2yo champion doesn’t already have his spot in the Kentucky Derby secured before April. A 3rd place finish or better should stamp his entry ticket.

It shall be interesting. We’ll see what happens at Oaklawn today.
Download Saturday’s Oaklawn Grid including the Arkansas Derby.

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Monday, April 10
Churchill Downs
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This week bears some more changing in the rankings as usual. Unlike last year, when the top 5, 10, etc, remained fairly static, it’s very dynamic this year, as there are new winners every week, that haven’t won anything significant before.
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One that did win a major prep for the 2nd time, after a horrible run last out at Gulfstream, is Irish War Cry, who we selected in the November Futures pool before word got out. He ran an excellent Wood Memorial and is now all set for a run for the roses.
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Gunnevera was demoted to 2nd from 1st, which is not demeaning to him by any means, but we just feel that Irish War Cry, at his best, is the best 3yo in training right now. And he doesn’t require any particular pace to make it happen, because of his early pressing running style.
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2yo champ Classic Empire remains in the top 10, in hopes that he can come back from the minor injury, and earn some points in the Ark. Derby to officially stamp his Kentucky ticket.
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The Arkansas is shaping up to be an epic Derby, with a possible 6 of the top 24 contenders gunning for a Roses ticket, and only one of them, Malagacy, already having the points required. I expect Todd will try to put him in the best position to win, but not go all out in the stretch.
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Here’s how we see it at this juncture.

Rank	Horse	Sire	Trainer	Fin	Race	Date	Pts	Next (Probable)
1	Irish War Cry	Curlin	Motion H Graham	1st	Wood Mem G2	8-Apr	110	Kentucky Derby 5/6
2	Gunnevera	Dialed In	Sano Antonio	3rd	Fla Derby G1	1-Apr	84	Kentucky Derby 5/6
3	Always Dreaming	Bodemeister	Pletcher Todd A	1st	Fla Derby G1	1-Apr	100	Kentucky Derby 5/6
4	Malagacy	Shackleford	Pletcher Todd A	1st	Rebel G2	18-Mar	50	Ark Derby G1 4/15
5	Girvin	Tale Of Ekati	Sharp Joe	1st	La Derby G2	1-Apr	150	Kentucky Derby 5/6
6	Classic Empire	Pioneerof The Nile	Casse Mark	3rd	Holy Bull G3	4-Feb	32	Ark Derby G1 4/15
7	Cloud Computing	Maclean’s Music	Brown Chad C	3rd	Wood Mem G2	8-Apr	40	Kentucky Derby 5/6
8	Practical Joke	Into Mischief	Brown Chad C	2nd	Blue Grass G2	8-Apr	74	Kentucky Derby 5/6
9	J Boys Echo	Mineshaft	Romans Dale	4th	Blue Grass G2	1-Apr	63	Kentucky Derby 5/6
10	Tapwrit	Tapit	Pletcher Todd A	5th	Blue Grass G2	8-Apr	54	Kentucky Derby 5/6
11	Thunder Snow (Ire)	Helmet	Suroor Saeed	1st	UAE Derby G1	25-Mar	100	Kentucky Derby 5/6
12	Sonneteer	Midnight Lute	Desormeaux Keith	2nd	Rebel G2	18-Mar	20	Ark Derby G1 4/15
13	Battalion Runner	Unbridled’S Song	Pletcher Todd A	2nd	Wood Mem G2	8-Apr	40	Kentucky Derby 5/6
14	Gormley	Malibu Moon	Shirreffs John	1st	SA Derby G1	8-Apr	125	SA Derby G1 4/8
15	Untrapped	Trappe Shot	Asmussen Steven M	3rd	Rebel G2	18-Mar	34	Ark Derby G1 4/15
16	Hence	Street Boss	Asmussen Steven M	1st	Sun Derby G3	26-Mar	50	Kentucky Derby 5/6
17	Mccraken	Ghostzapper	Wilkes Ian R	3rd	Blue Grass G2	8-Apr	40	Blue Grass G1 4/8
18	Petrov	Flatter	Moquett Ronald E	4th	Rebel G2	18-Mar	13	Ark Derby G1 4/15
19	Epicharis (JPN)	Gold Allure	Hagiwara Kiyoshi	2nd	UAE Derby G1	25-Mar	40	Kentucky Derby 5/6
20	Lookin At Lee	Lookin At Lucky	Asmussen Steven M	6th	Rebel G2	18-Mar	12	Ark Derby G1 4/15
21	State Of Honor	To Honor And Serve	Casse Mark	2nd	Fla Derby G1	1-Apr	62	Kentucky Derby 5/6
22	Royal Mo	Uncle Mo	Shirreffs John	3rd	SA Derby G1	8-Apr	30	Kentucky Derby 5/6
23	Irap	Tiznow	O’Neill Doug	1st	Blue Grass G2	8-Apr	100	Kentucky Derby 5/6
24	Uncontested	Tiz Wonderful	Catalano Wayne M	8th	Rebel G2	18-Mar	11	Ark Derby G1 4/15

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Monday, April 3, 2017
Churchill Downs
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This week we keep the top 3 intact, despite 5 new championship series winners since the last top 24, two weeks ago. Gunnevera stays on top despite losing the Florida Derby, a race he didn’t need to win, and probably could not have with Always Dreaming having it all his way in the breakout performance for Todd Pletcher.
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In the Kentucky Derby, there should be enough speed in the field, and an extra furlong, for closers such as Gunnevera and J Boys Echo to make significant moves down the stretch. One Liner has tactical speed and has finished well in all 3 career races. So those 3 stay at the top.
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It’s very tempting to move all 4 of Pletcher’s top steeds to the 1-4 positions, because Antonio Sano is relatively unknown, and Romans’ colt really only has one significant win, but we will wait until Super Saturday April 8, to make changes. Next weekend will include the G1 races: Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass Stakes, and Wood Memorial.
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Even so, whoever wins the Arkansas Derby G1 on the 15th may be promoted to #1, and that will likely be one of Pletcher’s top quartet. The only problem with the Arkansas is that it’s only 3 weeks before the Kentucky Derby, which puts the horse on a grueling schedule of running the Preakness 2 weeks later if it is to become a Triple Crown champion, always a temptation for Derby winners.
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So here’s the top 24 for now, in order as we see it, in an ever-changing order this year, unlike last year’s which remained quite static all year. You can bet there will be some turmoil over the next two weeks with the major preps and some new champions.
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Rank	Horse	Sire	Trainer	Fin	Race	Date	Pts	Next (Probable)	In
1	Gunnevera	Dialed In	Sano Antonio	3rd	Fla Derby G1	1-Apr	84	Kentucky Derby 5/6	Y
2	J Boys Echo	Mineshaft	Romans Dale	1st	Gotham G3	4-Mar	53	Blue Grass G1 4/8	Y
3	One Liner	Into Mischief	Pletcher Todd A	1st	Southwest G3	20-Feb	10	Ark Derby G1 4/15
4	Always Dreaming	Bodemeister	Pletcher Todd A	1st	Fla Derby G1	1-Apr	100	Kentucky Derby 5/6	Y
5	Tapwrit	Tapit	Pletcher Todd A	1st	TB Derby G2	11-Mar	54	Blue Grass G1 4/8	Y
6	Malagacy	Shackleford	Pletcher Todd A	1st	Rebel G2	18-Mar	50	Ark Derby G1 4/15	Y
7	Girvin	Tale Of Ekati	Sharp Joe	1st	La Derby G2	1-Apr	150	Kentucky Derby 5/6	Y
8	Classic Empire	Pioneerof The Nile	Casse Mark	3rd	Holy Bull G3	4-Feb	32	Ark Derby G1 4/15
9	Cloud Computing	Maclean’S Music	Brown Chad C	2nd	Gotham G3	4-Mar	20	Wood Mem G1 4/8
10	Practical Joke	Into Mischief	Brown Chad C	2nd	FOY G2	4-Mar	34	Blue Grass G1 4/8
11	Thunder Snow (Ire)	Helmet	Suroor Saeed	1st	UAE Derby G1	25-Mar	100	Kentucky Derby 5/6	Y
12	Mccraken	Ghostzapper	Wilkes Ian R	1st	Sam Davis G3	11-Feb	10	Blue Grass G1 4/8
13	Sonneteer	Midnight Lute	Desormeaux Keith	2nd	Rebel G2	18-Mar	20	Ark Derby G1 4/15
14	Battalion Runner	Unbridled’S Song	Pletcher Todd A	1st	OC75k-n1x	3-Feb	0	Wood Mem G1 4/8
15	Untrapped	Trappe Shot	Asmussen Steven M	3rd	Rebel G2	18-Mar	34	Ark Derby G1 4/15
16	El Areeb	Exchange Rate	Lynch Cathal	3rd	Gotham G3	4-Mar	30	Wood Mem G1 4/8
17	Irish War Cry	Curlin	Motion H Graham	7th	FOY G2	4-Mar	10	Wood Mem G1 4/8
15	Hence	Street Boss	Asmussen Steven M	1st	Sun Derby G3	26-Mar	50	Kentucky Derby 5/6	Y
19	Iliad	Ghostzapper	O’Neill Doug	2nd	San Felipe G2	11-Mar	20	SA Derby G1 4/8
20	Term of Art	Tiznow	O’Neill Doug	3rd	San Felipe G2	11-Mar	11	SA Derby G1 4/8
21	Gormley	Malibu Moon	Shirreffs John	4th	San Felipe G2	11-Mar	25	SA Derby G1 4/8
22	Petrov	Flatter	Moquett Ronald E	4th	Rebel G2	18-Mar	13	Ark Derby G1 4/15
23	Guest Suite (g)	Quality Road	Howard Neil J	4th	Risen Star G2	25-Feb	15	Ark Derby G1 4/15
24	Epicharis (JPN)	Gold Allure	Hagiwara Kiyoshi	2nd	UAE Derby G1	25-Mar	40	Kentucky Derby 5/6	Y

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Saturday, April 1
Churchill Downs
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Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 4 is underway. Here is the Grid of past performances, minus any performances in the Louisiana or Florida Derby this weekend, which you can look up the results of.
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Download Kentucky Derby Futures Pool Grid Here now

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Monday, March 20
Churchill Downs
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This week’s Derby Dozen features some changes based on some performances and non-performances last weekend. No change for the top 3, who are locked in for now but could change next week due to the high volatility in the market this year.
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It was necessary to move up Malagacy (who we got at 53-1 in Derby Pool 3) after his impressive Rebel G2 win. Several of the other promising contenders in that race were in the top 25 last week just didn’t perform well and had to be demoted. Two finished 3rd and 4th, and Sonneteer gets into the top 10 with a blazing close for 2nd, giving Keith Desormeaux a serious Derby contender again this year.
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As luck would have it, Pletcher now has 3 in the top 5, with his top 3 all scoring wins and points last out. One of them needs championship series points but should get them. Chad Brown has 2 runners-up at 7 and 8, and O’Neill has a pair at 16 and 17. That’s just how it turned out.
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Baffert is left with 1 that may contend after a horrible finish in the Rebel, and the injury to Mastery. It’s hard to imagine a Kentucky Derby without Bob. Steve Asmussen also has a low pair with one about to drop out of contention.
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Right now Pletcher’s royal 3 of a kind is looking the strongest from a trainer’s perspective, but the proven Dale Romans and relatively unknown Antonio Sano have aces in the hole. Mark Casse’s wild card was the top 2yo but must fully recover from injury to prep once more, because his points are short.
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The top 25 as we see it right now, in order:

Rank	Horse	Sire	Trainer	Fin	Race	Date	Pts	Next (Probable)
1	Gunnevera	Dialed In	Sano Antonio	1st	FOY G2	4-Mar	64	Fla Derby G1 4/1
2	J Boys Echo	Mineshaft	Romans Dale	1st	Gotham G3	4-Mar	53	Wood Mem G1 4/8
3	One Liner	Into Mischief	Pletcher Todd A	1st	Southwest G3	20-Feb	10	La Derby G2 4/1
4	Tapwrit	Tapit	Pletcher Todd A	1st	TB Derby G2	11-Mar	54	Blue Grass G1 4/8
5	Malagacy	Shackleford	Pletcher Todd A	1st	Rebel G2	18-Mar	50	Ark Derby G1 4/18
6	Classic Empire	Pioneerof The Nile	Casse Mark	3rd	Holy Bull G3	4-Feb	32	Blue Grass G1 4/8
7	Cloud Computing	Maclean’S Music	Brown Chad C	2nd	Gotham G3	4-Mar	20	Wood Mem G1 4/8
8	Practical Joke	Into Mischief	Brown Chad C	2nd	FOY G2	4-Mar	34	Fla Derby G1 4/1
9	Mccraken	Ghostzapper	Wilkes Ian R	1st	Sam Davis G3	11-Feb	10	Spiral G3 3/25
10	Sonneteer	Midnight Lute	Desormeaux Keith	2nd	Rebel G2	18-Mar	20	Ark Derby G1 4/18
11	Untrapped	Trappe Shot	Asmussen Steven M	3rd	Rebel G2	18-Mar	34	Ark Derby G1 4/18
12	Girvin	Tale Of Ekati	Sharp Joe	1st	Risen Star G2	25-Feb	50	La Derby G2 4/1
13	Unique Bella (f)	More Than Ready	Hollendorfer J	1st	Santa Ysabel G2	4-Mar	0	SA Oaks G1 4/7
14	El Areeb	Exchange Rate	Lynch Cathal	3rd	Gotham G3	4-Mar	30	Wood Mem G1 4/8
15	Irish War Cry	Curlin	Motion H Graham	7th	FOY G2	4-Mar	10	Blue Grass G1 4/8
16	Iliad	Ghostzapper	O’Neill Doug	2nd	San Felipe G2	11-Mar	20	SA Derby G1 4/8
17	Term of Art	Tiznow	O’Neill Doug	3rd	San Felipe G2	11-Mar	11	SA Derby G1 4/8
18	Gormley	Malibu Moon	Shirreffs John	4th	San Felipe G2	11-Mar	25	SA Derby G1 4/8
19	Petrov	Flatter	Moquett Ronald E	4th	Rebel G2	18-Mar	13	Ark Derby G1 4/18
20	Guest Suite (g)	Quality Road	Howard Neil J	4th	Risen Star G2	25-Feb	15	La Derby G2 4/1
21	Epicharis (JPN)	Gold Allure	Hagiwara Kiyoshi	1st	Hyacinth	19-Feb	50	UAE Derby G1 3/25
22	Lookin At Lee	Lookin At Lucky	Asmussen Steven M	6th	Rebel G2	18-Mar	12	Ark Derby G1 4/18
23	Mo Town	Uncle Mo	Dutrow Anthony W	5th	Risen Star G2	25-Feb	10	Wood Mem G1 4/8
24	State Of Honor	To Honor And Serve	Casse Mark	2nd	TB Derby G2	11-Mar	22	Fla Derby G1 4/1
25	American Anthem	Bodemeister	Baffert Bob	10th	Rebel G2	18-Mar	4	SA Derby G1 4/8

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Monday, March 13, 2017
Churchill Downs
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Not too much of a shakeup at the top this week, because most of the top horses didn’t run and will stay in place. Mastery was looking to move up but came up injured after his masterful San Felipe win and probably won’t run for the roses, which sucks.
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Thus Gunnevera will remain atop the rankings and point standings for this week, with nobody having a rightful challenge to his spot. Tapwrit can only move up to 5th with his Tampa Bay Derby win, because I said so.
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For the IN column, I’m declaring any horse with at least 50 points, IN the Derby if they want to be and are healthy. Anyone less than 50, there are no guarantees at this point.
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Rank	Horse	Sire	Trainer	Fin	Race	Date	Pts	Next (Probable)
1	Gunnevera	Dialed In	Sano Antonio	1st	FOY G2	4-Mar	64	Kentucky Derby 5/6
2	J Boys Echo	Mineshaft	Romans Dale	1st	Gotham G3	4-Mar	53	Wood Mem G1 4/8
3	One Liner	Into Mischief	Pletcher Todd A	1st	Southwest G3	20-Feb	10	Rebel G2 3/18
4	Cloud Computing	Maclean’S Music	Brown Chad C	2nd	Gotham G3	4-Mar	20	Wood Mem G1 4/8
5	Tapwrit	Tapit	Pletcher Todd A	1st	TB Derby G2	11-Mar	54	Kentucky Derby 5/6
6	Classic Empire	Pioneerof The Nile	Casse Mark	3rd	Holy Bull G3	4-Feb	32	TB Derby G2 3/11
7	Practical Joke	Into Mischief	Brown Chad C	2nd	FOY G2	4-Mar	34	Fla Derby G1 4/1
8	Mccraken	Ghostzapper	Wilkes Ian R	1st	Sam Davis G3	11-Feb	10	TB Derby G2 3/11
9	Unique Bella (f)	More Than Ready	Hollendorfer J	1st	Santa Ysabel G2	4-Mar	0	SA Oaks G1 4/8
10	Malagacy	Shackleford	Pletcher Todd A	1st	OC75K GPX	12-Feb	0	TB Derby G2 3/11
11	Royal Mo	Uncle Mo	Shirreffs John	1st	Robert Lewis G3	4-Feb	10	San Felipe G2 3/11
12	Girvin	Tale Of Ekati	Sharp Joe	1st	Risen Star G2	25-Feb	50	La Derby G2 4/1
13	American Anthem	Bodemeister	Baffert Bob	2nd	Sham G3	7-Jan	4	Rebel G2 3/18
14	El Areeb	Exchange Rate	Lynch Cathal	3rd	Gotham G3	4-Mar	30	Wood Mem G1 4/8
15	Irish War Cry	Curlin	Motion H Graham	7th	FOY G2	4-Mar	10	Blue Grass G1 4/8
16	Petrov	Flatter	Moquett Ronald E	2nd	Southwest G3	20-Feb	8	Rebel G2 3/18
17	Untrapped	Trappe Shot	Asmussen Steven M	2nd	Risen Star G2	25-Feb	24	La Derby G2 4/1
18	Iliad	Ghostzapper	O’Neill Doug	2nd	San Felipe G2	11-Mar	20	SA Derby G1 4/8
19	Gormley	Malibu Moon	Shirreffs John	4th	San Felipe G2	11-Mar	25	SA Derby G1 4/8
20	Favorable Outcome	Flatter	Brown Chad C	1st	Swale G2	4-Feb	0	FOY G2 3/4
21	Guest Suite (g)	Quality Road	Howard Neil J	4th	Risen Star G2	25-Feb	15	La Derby G2 4/1
22	Lookin At Lee	Lookin At Lucky	Asmussen Steven M	3rd	Southwest G3	20-Feb	12	Rebel G2 3/18
23	Mo Town	Uncle Mo	Dutrow Anthony W	1st	Remsen G2	26-Nov	10	?
24	State Of Honor	To Honor And Serve	Casse Mark	2nd	TB Derby G2	11-Mar	22	Fla Derby G1 4/1

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DC

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Monday, March 6, 2017
Churchill Downs
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Major shakeups at the top of the Derby Dozen the past couple weeks, not just because there were some new winners in the first 3 Derby Championship Series races, stamping their Kentucky Derby tickets and vaulting to the top 3 spots on the Derby Points Leaderboard.
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No, we don’t change rankings based on just who won this week. However, two young colts did win in stellar fashion last weekend, registering great speed figures against solid competition. Gunnevera already had solid credentials and we had him ranked 5th, but he took advantage of a legit pace to run away from the field in the Fountain of Youth.
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In the Gotham, J Boys Echo also took advantage of a solid pace for once and showed what he can do in closing maneuvers. Previously unranked, he catapulted into 2nd in our rankings due to registering a tie among high beyers for 3yo’s. Our PF has not been calculated yet.
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Similarly, Cloud Computing put out a great effort in only his 2nd career start after breaking his maiden in a 6f run at Aqueduct in February. He was professional and game in the Gotham, getting passed by the winner but hanging in and driving away from the rest of the field.
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Consequently, One Liner moves down a notch to 3rd. Others were demoted because they continue to not run after injury, or not run well. Irish War Cry faded to 7th in the FOY after pursuing a legit but not blazing pace, and there have been no excuses offered yet.
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We’re still waiting to see some of these run their first route race. Iliad could give Doug’O a Derby contender in the San Felipe next weekend. Nobody in public seems to know where Malagacy is pointed at this point, but he’s definitely 1 of the fastest 3yo’s by anyone’s measure.
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Here’s the top 24 at this point and a prediction of where they may race next.
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Rank	Horse	Sire	Trainer	Fin	Race	Date	Pts	Next (Probable)
1	Gunnevera	DIALED IN	SANO ANTONIO	1st	FOY G2	4-Mar	64	Kentucky Derby 5/6
2	J Boys Echo	MINESHAFT	ROMANS DALE	1st	Gotham G3	4-Mar	53	Wood Mem G1 4/8
3	One Liner	INTO MISCHIEF	PLETCHER TODD A	1st	Southwest G3	20-Feb	10	Rebel G2 3/18
4	Gormley	MALIBU MOON	SHIRREFFS JOHN	1st	Sham G3	7-Jan	20	San Felipe G2 3/11
5	Mastery	CANDY RIDE	BAFFERT BOB	1st	Los Al Futurity G1	10-Dec	10	San Felipe G2 3/11
6	Cloud Computing	MACLEAN’S MUSIC	BROWN CHAD C	2nd	Gotham G3	4-Mar	20	Wood Mem G1 4/8
7	Irish War Cry	CURLIN	MOTION H GRAHAM	7th	FOY G2	4-Mar	10	Blue Grass G1 4/8
8	Classic Empire	PIONEEROF THE NILE	CASSE MARK	3rd	Holy Bull G3	4-Feb	32	TB Derby G2 3/11
9	Practical Joke	INTO MISCHIEF	BROWN CHAD C	2nd	FOY G2	4-Mar	34	Fla Derby G1 4/1
10	Mccraken	GHOSTZAPPER	WILKES IAN R	1st	Sam Davis G3	11-Feb	10	TB Derby G2 3/11
11	Unique Bella (f)	MORE THAN READY	HOLLENDORFER J	1st	Santa Ysabel G2	4-Mar	0	SA Oaks G1 4/8
12	Malagacy	SHACKLEFORD	PLETCHER TODD A	1ST	OC75K GPX	12-Feb	0	TB Derby G2 3/11
13	Royal Mo	UNCLE MO	SHIRREFFS JOHN	1st	Robert Lewis G3	4-Feb	10	San Felipe G2 3/11
14	Girvin	TALE OF EKATI	SHARP JOE	1st	Risen Star G2	25-Feb	50	La Derby G2 4/1
15	American Anthem	BODEMEISTER	BAFFERT BOB	2nd	Sham G3	7-Jan	4	Rebel G2 3/18
16	El Areeb	EXCHANGE RATE	LYNCH CATHAL	3rd	Gotham G3	4-Mar	30	Wood Mem G1 4/8
17	Petrov	FLATTER	MOQUETT RONALD E	2nd	Southwest G3	20-Feb	8	Rebel G2 3/18
18	Untrapped	TRAPPE SHOT	ASMUSSEN STEVEN M	2nd	Risen Star G2	25-Feb	24	La Derby G2 4/1
19	Iliad	GHOSTZAPPER	O’NEILL DOUG	1st	San Vicente G2	12-Feb	0	San Felipe G2 3/11
20	Favorable Outcome	FLATTER	BROWN CHAD C	1st	Swale G2	4-Feb	0	FOY G2 3/4
21	Guest Suite (g)	QUALITY ROAD	HOWARD NEIL J	4th	Risen Star G2	25-Feb	15	La Derby G2 4/1
22	Lookin At Lee	LOOKIN AT LUCKY	ASMUSSEN STEVEN M	3rd	Southwest G3	20-Feb	12	Rebel G2 3/18
23	Mo Town	UNCLE MO	DUTROW ANTHONY W	1st	Remsen G2	26-Nov	10	?
24	Tapwrit	TAPIT	PLETCHER TODD A	2nd	Sam Davis G3	11-Feb	4	TB Derby G2 3/11

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Friday, Feb.24, 2017
Churchill Downs
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The entries and data for Pool 3 of the 2017 Kentucky Derby are out. The pool begins today and will run thru Sunday, with Final Odds changing daily.

This means that horses who run in the Risen Star G2 this weekend that are also single entries in the Derby Pool, such as Mo Town and Guest Suite, the top 2 ML choices, could have vastly different odds come closing bell on Sunday.

The Grid is divided into 4 fields, 2 for the Kentucky Oaks and 2 for the Derby, because of programming considerations and for ease of use. It’s much easier to look at 12 horses at once and compare them, than 24.

Download Kentucky Derby and Oaks Futures Pool 3 Grid Here Now
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Unique Bella is currently the prohibitive favorite for the Kentucky Oaks after dusting the field in the Las Virgenes G2 on 5 Feb.

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The Kentucky Derby field is much more diverse, with favoritism currently switching between Los Al Futurity winner Mastery, ranked 4th in the Derby Dozen, and Holy Bull winner Irish War Cry, ranked #1 and whom we managed to get at 17-1 in November.

Use the Derby Dozen Rankings here for free to help make some good decisions.

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Wednesday, February 22, 2017
Churchill Downs
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Irish War Cry (Curlin) remains atop the Derby Dozen this week, because I said he is. Tis true, One Liner was most impressive in the Southwest Stakes G2, and there was some internal debate (inside my own head) over whether to promote him to 2nd or 3rd.
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But considering the Into Mischief colt scored the highest 3yo Beyer this year in that race (Grid PF’s have yet to be calculated), and the extent of Classic Empire’s foot abscess injury is not widely known, we put One Liner in 2nd and demoted the 2yo champ to 3rd.
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The remainder of the field remains mostly unchanged, but Petrov now appears after a too-early move put him in 2nd at Oaklawn in the Southwest, whereas he was previously ranked about 18th.
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The filly Unique Bella (More than Ready) also appears in the dozen after an impressive Las Virgenes G2 win. We went 15 deep in this one to show that after the top 10 there is some relativity.
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Rank	Horse	Sire	Trainer	Fin	Race	Date	Pts	Next (Probable)
1	Irish War Cry	CURLIN	MOTION H GRAHAM	1st	Holy Bull G3	4-Feb	10	FOY G2 3/4
2	One Liner	INTO MISCHIEF	PLETCHER TODD A	1st	Southwest G3	20-Feb	10	Rebel G2 3/18
3	Classic Empire	PIONEEROF THE NILE	CASSE MARK	3rd	Holy Bull G3	4-Feb	32	TB Derby G2 3/11
4	Mastery	CANDY RIDE	BAFFERT BOB	1st	Los Al Futurity G1	10-Dec	10	San Felipe G2 3/11
5	Gunnevera	DIALED IN	SANO ANTONIO	2nd	Holy Bull G3	4-Feb	14	FOY G2 3/4
6	Mccraken	GHOSTZAPPER	WILKES IAN R	1st	Sam Davis G3	11-Feb	10	TB Derby G2 3/11
7	Gormley	MALIBU MOON	SHIRREFFS JOHN	1st	Sham G3	7-Jan	20	San Felipe G2 3/11
8	El Areeb	EXCHANGE RATE	LYNCH CATHAL	1st	Withers G3	16-Jan	20	Gotham G3 3/4
9	American Anthem	BODEMEISTER	BAFFERT BOB	2nd	Sham G3	7-Jan	4	Rebel G2 3/18
10	Petrov	FLATTER	MOQUETT RONALD E	2nd	Smarty Jones	16-Jan	4	Southwest G3 2/20
11	Royal Mo	UNCLE MO	SHIRREFFS JOHN	1st	Robert Lewis G3	4-Feb	10	San Felipe G2 3/11
12	Unique Bella	MORE THAN READY	HOLLENDORFER J	1st	Las Virgenes G2	5-Feb	0	Santa Ysabel G2 3/4
13	Practical Joke	INTO MISCHIEF	BROWN CHAD C	3rd	BC Juvenile G1	5-Nov	14	Gotham G3 3/4
14	Guest Suite (g)	QUALITY ROAD	HOWARD NEIL J	1st	Lecomte G3	21-Jan	10	Risen Star G2 2/25
15	Malagacy	SHACKLEFORD	PLETCHER TODD A	1ST	OC75K GPX	12-Feb	0	TB Derby G2 3/11

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Monday, Febuary 20, 2017
Oaklawn Park

Happy President’s Day!

It’s a big race day at Oaklawn as they host the Razorback G3 for older horses and the Southwest G3 for 3yo’s.

The Razorback G3 features 8 of the nation’s top racers from 4 and up, running 8.5f on dirt. The prohibitive favorite is last year’s Kentucky Derby 3rd placer Gun Runner, who will be at less than even odds in this year’s debut. Last out he won the Clark G1 at Churchill in November.

The Southwest G3 features 13 of the top 3yo’s in the nation who are competing for a slot in the Kentucky Derby. Uncontested is favored after a strong Smarty Jones 150k win over this track in January, handily defeating 4 others in this field.

However, the favorite will be contested by several, including Warrior’s Club, who defeated him in the KYJC G2 in November, and didn’t seem to like the sloppy Smarty Jones track. Petrov looks to improve after a game 2nd in that race.

One Liner is the 2nd ML choice in his 3rd career start and first one over 6f, but was impressive last out for Pletcher. Lookin at Lee will also get some action in his first race since finishing 4th in the BCJuv G1 last year for Asmussen.

Cool Arrow would like to make some noise as a front runner, after a strong $300k win at Remington in Dec. But there is plenty of speed in the race, making Rowdy the Warrior and Hence, both 20-1, better long shot candidates to use in the trifecta and super

Good luck!

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