Loading ...Jun 11 2015
Churchill Downs Saturday June 13 Stephen Foster, Matt Winn, FleurdeLys and Regret, All Stakes Pick 4
Churchill Downs heats up the summer racing this weekend with an 11 race card, with 4 Graded Stakes races, and 4 Pick 4’s, including an all-stakes Pick 4 that could reach $400,000. That’s a lot of 4’s.
Stakes racing starts with the Regret G3 in race 6, followed by the Fleur De Lis G2, the featured Stephen Foster G1, and the Matt Wynn G3 for 3yo’s.
The all-stakes Pick 4 will encompass those 4 stakes races and should fetch a nice pool of at least $300k, or perhaps even $400k this year would be nice.
Last year the P4 pool reached almost $330k, and paid out $2857 to 1, or $1428 for the 50 cent option. This late P4 will be used for part this year’s Million Dollar Finish and also a Derby Wars contest that is full already.
Moonshine Mullin won the Foster at odds of 10-1 with Calvin Borel aboard. He was the 4th longest shot in the field of 9 and ran a nice race on the front end.
This year the Foster appears to be full of speed for a field of 7, with 4 horses with pace points above 6, and only one below 5, Baffert’s Hoppertunity.
Taking a deeper look, there is only one E horse, the E8 Cat Burglar. There are 3 EP7’s, led by Pletcher’s Commissioner, who never let Cat Burglar get close to him last out.
The favorite will be the strong closer Lea, an EP5 trained by Mott, followed by Hoppertunity at 5-2 and Commissioner at 3-1. After that it’s wild cards.
The Grid shows that Lea is actually tied with the E8 Cat Burglar for late pace rating. This is because our LP ranking takes into account the last four races, which includes Cat’s last 2 races last year.
The PF’s also reveal that Burglar is rounding back into last year’s form, in which he was superior to anyone in this field.
People are easy to dismiss Cat Burglar after he seemingly got destroyed by Commissioner in the Pimlico Special, because he got beat by 5, but he didn’t run his race.
The son of Unbridled’s Song horse broke poorly, 3 lengths off the leader, while Commissioner was 1 from the front and soon had the lead by half a mile.
Cat Burglar was forced 4 wide trying to get the lead, which he’s supposed to do, but never did. Compare that to last year’s Pimlico Special, where he ran a very game 3rd by 1.5 lengths to Revolutionary.
In fact, his Pimlico Special G3 and Brooklyn G2 last year are the best pair of races strung together by any in this field. This year he seems to be about at the same point as he was going into those last year.
This is one of those classic races in which most of the jockeys and trainers will outsmart themselves. They’re all reading the pace figures and speed points.
What they’re seeing is lots of speed, and most will be strangling their horses until 3/4 of a mile are over, in which case the race might be done.
Victor Espinoza won’t be restraining Cat Burglar, and will set him to the lead as the only way to counter being on the outside post.
If he breaks well, he’ll make the lead, and it could be an easy one. The stalkers will stalk, thinking he’s just a rabbit, helping Baffert’s later running Hoppertunity.
For these reasons, Cat Burglar will be my top choice at 8-1, followed by EP7’s Paganol, Noble Bird, and Commissioner.
Cat Burglar, 3rd by 3/4 in the Brooklyn G2 2014
Paganol at 20-1 actually owns the highest EP according to the Grid, and is coming off a great ocm62k/n2x, just of like Cat Burglar was going into last year’s Special.
Noble Bird 10-1 is improving and coming off 2 wins, including yes an ocm62/n2x, then a loss by a head in the Alysheba right here at Churchill.
The other favorites may not factor in much, as they will get caught up in a strangulation contest and never catch the frontrunners.
