Loading ...Nov 09 2023
Kentucky Derby Pool 1 Results: Final Odds and Analysis
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Thursday, November 9, 2023.
In the Breeders’ Cup aftermath, let’s see what happened in Kentucky Derby 2024 Pool 1, which opened on Tuesday the 1st and closed the day before the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile G1 was run on Friday evening at Santa Anita.
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The favorite was the field (all other 3yo males not individually listed) going in, and remained a solid favorite after the pool closed. This was mostly due to the presence of Muth, who opened as a 4-1 virtual co-favorite in the BCJ, and wound up with odds of 2.7 as the 2nd choice. Muth was a field bet due to his coach, Baffert.
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The BCJ post-time favorite finished just behind Muth at odds of 2.3, and was the individual entry favorite in the Pool at 14-1. The BCJ champion Fierceness was a major overlay, going from ML of 6-1 to 16-1, despite the scratch of another single digit competitor (The Wine Steward, scratched by horse stewards.)
Fierceness, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Nov.3 2023
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Fierceness ran back closer to his debut performance, an 11 length win in a maiden special weight at a muddy Saratoga track at 6f, giving him a PF of 97, the highest of all Pool 1 entries. His 2nd effort was appalling, giving him the 2nd lowest PF of the 38 Pool 1 entries.
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Most people would assume that since it was also a muddy track, this time at the Aqueduct, that the poor performance was due to the increased distance or class in the Champagne G1. That proved to not be true. He tracked the BCJ pacesetter then put the field away by 6 lengths in the stretch.
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While his odds in the BCJ more than doubled, interestingly the odds of Fierceness went to about one third of his opening Pool 1 odds, and that was BEFORE the BCJ was run, so somebody with a fat wallet was likely using the Grid. Final odds for Fierceness were 29-1. You won’t get that on Derby day.
KENTUCKY DERBY POOL 1 GRID AND FINAL ODDS
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So congratulations if you paid attention to the PF’s in the Grid and got great odds on Fierceness for next year’s Kentucky Derby. And congratulations for being an idiot if you bet on the field at 4-5, because literally any horse you like in any other pool entry will have much higher odds.
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Either way, there’s a long time to go before the first weekend in May, and 5 more Kentucky Derby Futures Pools, setting a new record. You will want to stay tuned for Pool 2, when they will also include a sire future bet. This is a fun bet that you can use pool contestants to establish your picks.
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For example, Street Sense, a former Kentucky Derby champion, has 4 contestants in Pool 1. None of the other sires have more than 2 entrants. The sire of Fierceness has one more in the pool, which is one of the least impressive so far.
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Of course, the Pool 2 entries will be somewhat different, and you will have the benefit of being able to observe some more futurities and assorted 2yo races before it closes. That will include the Kentucky Jockey Club G2 and the Coronation Futurity on Nov.25.
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As stated aforehand, stay tuned for more info coming up. We’ll have free PF’s and stats for the Pool 2 Grid, along with the first Derby Double Dozen of the year, which you don’t want to miss. All that info and speculation is free to the public with no strings or charges attached.
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Get The Grid for all your favorite tracks and races here!
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