Weekend Winners Club

Saturday July 4, 2015

Today is the last big day of racing this summer for Belmont Park, as Saratoga will pick up the slack later on this month. There are six graded stakes races, with purse money of $3.8 million. The Belmont Derby and Oaks are the featured races, both Grade 1 Invitationals worth $1.25 and$1 million each.

To add some fun to the action, Belmont is offering several guaranteed pools as part of their Stars and Stripes Festival. The Pick 5 pool race 1 will be worth at least $250k, the all-stakes Pick 6 beginning race 6 will be worth at least $150k, and the late Pick 5 including the two G1’s, will offer at least a $500k pool.

The early Pick 4 begins race 2 and I expect a healthy pool for that as well. I played that to try to bulk up my own purse before the Pick 6 goes off at around 3:15 pm. My early Pick 4 is on record as the following 50 cent wager.

PICK 4
1 3 4 5 6
1 5 6 8
4 6
7 8
$40.00

I almost didn’t want to bet because of all the possibilities, but that’s when you SHOULD really want to bet. So I went deeper in the first two contentious legs and used legit favs with a backup play each in the last 2 legs. I think it’s got a good shot.

The Pick 6 is a different story. In almost all such wagers, unless you have a large bankroll, most will have to suck it up and single somewhere. Get the Grid for Belmont by downloading here so you can follow along.
Belmont Card Original
Belmont With Scratches

In this case I’ll be starting off with singling the favorite Enchanting Lady in the Victory Ride G3. She has the right running style and good early and late pace figures, so I’ll live or die with Baffert in this one, but would like to include Promise Me Silver.

In the G3 Dwyer, Texas Red is rightfully the favorite, and undoubtedly the best closer in a race that appears to have a lot of speed in it. However, I have trouble dismissing Pletcher’s Blofeld and Tommy Macho, in his 4th start. Mott’s Speightster also looks great after two starts and could improve again.

I really want to go 5 deep in the Belmont Derby at 10f, but will likely pare it down to at most Bolo, the top early and power runner, Canndal, the foreigner, Force the Pass who still owns the top PF overall, and Startup Nation with the top late pace. Divisidero and Chad Brown will have to be cut because I already have closers.

In the Suburban, Tonalist will be a heavy favorite due to his Belmont Stakes victory last year, and is a legitimate one. However, Pletcher’s duo of Coach Inge and Mylute are both formidable. Although the only speed in the field, Coach Inge has the top LP calculation and could get an easy lead. Mylute has the best PF overall, which was last race out. I will need to cut him and go with Tonalist as my late runner. Effinex could run his 2nd or 3rd race back and take this one but maybe for the Pick 4.

The Belmont Oaks has the largest field of the day with 14, but sometimes that’s where there’s a lot of competition for 2nd place. Chad Brown’s Lady Eli is by far the best late runner and has to be used as the legit favorite at 10f. However, I also need to use Aidan O’brien’s Outstanding because he’s one of the best turf trainers in the world. Others could be considered in Pick 4 like Senterio Italia and Sharla Rae at nice odds.

The last race and shortest field will be the Belmont Sprint G3 at 7f. Private Zone is the heavy ML fav but will have legit company up front with Green Gatto. This will open things up for Stallwalkin Dude and David Jacobson has already been working magic today.

I’m going to start with this bet and then probably trim it down depending on what’s in the bank and how well I do on the earlier races.
Pick 6
2
1 3 4 6
2 4 5 8
2 6
2 10
3 6
$256

Use those as your baseline horses and certainly you can at least get a good looking Pick 4 out of the deal. For access to all the grids, check out the subscription options here.

Good luck!

Trackback URI | Comments RSS