Weekend Winners Club

January 25, 2016

The road to the 2016 Kentucky Derby is heating up with the Prep Series closing out in a few weeks and giving way to the Championship Series. It’s been about a month since the last DD so it’s time for another.
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Download Final 2016 Kentucky Derby Grid Here with full field, odds, posts, and over 80 different factors including pedigree, performance, and historical criteria!
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The rankings below are due to likely change again after the Jan.30 preps, including the Holy Bull and Withers. Another update will be issued after the Lewis on Feb.6 to prepare you for Kentucky Derby Pool 2.

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Rank	Horse	Sire	Trainer	Last	Race	Date	Pts
1	Nyquist	Uncle Mo	Doug O’Neill	1st	BC Juvenile G1	31-Oct	30
2	Brody’s Cause	Giant’s Causeway	Dale Romans	3rd	BC Juvenile G1	31-Oct	14
3	Airoforce	Colonel John	Mark Casse	1st	KY Jockey Club G2	28-Nov	10
4	Mor Spirit	Eskendereya	Bob Baffert	1st	Los Al Futurity G1	19-Dec	14
5	Swipe	Birdstone	Keith Desormeaux	2nd	BC Juvenile G1	31-Oct	12
6	Mohaymen	Tapit	Kiaran McLaughlin	1st	Remsen G2	28-Nov	10
7	Exaggerator	Curlin	Keith Desormeaux	1st	Delta Jackpot G3	21-Nov	16
8	Flexibility	Bluegrass Cat	Chad Brown	1st	Jerome G3	2-Jan	14
9	Cocked and Loaded	Colonel John	Larry Rivelli	5th	BC Juvenile G1	31-Oct	10
10	Riker	Include	Nick Gonzalez	6th	BC Juvenile G1	31-Oct	10
11	Greenpointcrusader	Bernardini	Dominick Schettino	7th	BC Juvenile G1	31-Oct	10
12	Mo Tom	Uncle Mo	Tom Amoss	1st	Lecomte G3	16-Jan	12
12	Sunny Ridge	Holy Bull	Jason Servis	2nd	Delta Jackpot G3	21-Nov	8
14	Awesome Speed	Awesome Again	Alan Goldberg	1st	Mucho Macho Man	2-Jan	0
15	Awesome Banner	Awesome of Course	Stanley Gold	1st	Hutcheson G2 7f	2-Jan	0
16	Discreetness	Discreet Cat	Williams Fires	1st	Smarty Jones	18-Jan	10
17	Epic Journey	JP’s Gusto	Anthony Granitz	2nd	Pasco 7f	23-Jan	0
18	Let’s Meet in Rio	Flatter	Bob Baffert	2nd	Sham G3	9-Jan	4
19	Collected	City Zip	Bob Baffert	1st	Sham G3	9-Jan	10
20	Morning Fire	Friesan Fire	Keith Nations	1st	Pasco 7f	23-Jan	0
21	Toews on Ice	Archarcharch	Bob Baffert	6th	Smarty Jones	18-Jan	4
22	Tom’s Ready	More Than Ready	Dallas Stewart	2nd	Lecomte G3	16-Jan	4
23	Vorticity	Distorted Humor	James Lawrence II	2nd	Jerome G3	2-Jan	4
24	Synchrony	Tapit	Donnie Von Hemel	3rd	Smarty Jones	18-Jan	2
25	Gordy Florida	Cactus Ridge	Kenny Smith	2nd	Smarty Jones	18-Jan	4

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1. Nyquist remains in 1st place, mostly undisputed throughout the industry, after winning 3 straight Grade 1 races last year, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. That followed victories in the Frontrunner Stakes and Del Mar Futurity for trainer Doug O’Neill and jockey Mario Gutierrez. The Uncle Mo colt won all 5 starts last year. His first start this year will likely be 2/15 in the pointless San Vicente G2. At 7f this would be a good tune-up, but won’t earn any Derby points, which he leads in, but won’t come 2/20.

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2. Brody’s Cause checks in at 3rd after a 3rd place finish in the BC Juvenile. After a horrible start to his career, finishing 25 lengths back on turf, which Giant’s Causeway colts usually like, Dale Romans switched him to dirt. There he rattled off a maiden win and a victory in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland before succumbing to the 1-2 punch from SoCal. He took the winter off from racing and appears headed for the Tampa Bay Derby on 3/12.
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3. Airoforce did not run in the BC Juvenile, with Mark Casse opting instead to run the previous day in the BC Juvenile Turf, where he ran valiantly but was outclosed by an Irish horse and finished 2nd . Previously he won handily twice on turf including the G3 Bourbon. Most recently the Colonel John colt won the Kentucky Jockey Club G2 on 11/28, beating Mo Tom and Mor Spirit. He could be headed for the 2/12 Sam F Davis in a pointless race. Literally, it will not earn any Derby points.
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4. Mor Spirit is coming off an impressive win from midpack in the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity 12/19. He previously edged out Mo Tom in the Ky Jockey Club G2 while finishing 2 lengths behind Airoforce. The Eskendereya (Giant’s Causeway) colt has 2 wins and 2 places so far and looks to keep improving under Bob Baffert. His first 3yo start should be in the Robert Lewis G3 on 2/6, worth 10 points.
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5. Swipe would stay in 2nd, since it appears the only horse he can’t beat is Nyquist, who he has finished 2nd to now 4 times in a row. However, he had a bone chip removed from his ankle last year and will not return to racing until at least March. Trainer Keith Desormeaux appears optimistic that he might prep in March and April and maybe turn the tables on Nyquist. However, with Birdstone his sire, the best chance to do that might be in the Belmont Stakes. One of the most heavily raced 2yo’s, he ran in 7 races last year, with 5 2nd’s, a 1st, and a 3rd. Next start TBD but won’t be until at least March.
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6. Mohaymen (Tapit) has some ranking him as high as 1st, which is ridiculous, because he’s only run in NY so far, against nobody except Flexibility. We’ll give the Tapit colt credit for nice closing wins in the Nashua and Remsen over Flexibility, now a G3 winner, but he hasn’t beat anyone else in the Derby Dozen yet. Kirian has him in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream 1/30, where we’ll see if he’s for real.
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7. Exagerrator (Curlin) held off a strong close by Sunny Ridge to win the Delta Jackpot G3 last year after finishing 4th in the BC Juvenile. He was also passed by Brody’s Causeway in the Breeders’ Futurity while finishing 2nd, but has won two graded races so far and keeps improving for Keith Desormeaux, who has two in our dozen. He could appear in the Robert Lewis G3 on 2/6 or the San Vicente G2 on 2/15, where he would likely take on 2yo champ Nyquist.
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8. Flexibility (Bluegrass Cat) came off two narrow losses to Mohaymen in the Nashua G2 and Remsen G2 to finally get his turn at a graded stakes win for Chad Brown, coming off a decent pace in the Jerome G3 to win by an impressive 4 lengths. He earned a good PF for the race, in which he may have even beat the rival, but there were no real contenders there. Next race should be the Withers at AQ 1/30.
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9. Cocked and Loaded finished 5th in the BC Juvenile after running in 4th and 3rd most of the way. The fact that he got passed by all of the top 4 in that race doesn’t bode well for going another couple furlongs, but he did drift out. The Colonel John colt owns an Iroquois G3 victory and broke his maiden first time out for Larry Rivelli. Next start TBD.
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10. Riker (Include) tried to take the BC Juvenile from the gate to wire, but was eventually passed by 5 others, including Cocked and Loaded. Prior to that he came off 4 straight Woodbine victories for Nicholas Gonzalez, including the Grey Stakes. Slated to start 1/30 in the Holy Bull.
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11. Greenpointcrusader (Bernardini) finished a neck behind Riker in the BC Juvenile after an impressive 4 length win over Sunny Ridge on a sloppy track in the Champagne G1 for Dominick Schettino. He should also appear in the Holy Bull on 1/30.
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12. Sunny Ridge (Holy Bull) finished 4 lengths back to Greenpointcrusader in the sloppy Champagne G1, then skipped the BC Juvenile. Jason Servis entered him in the Delta Jackpot (muddy and sealed) on 11/21 where he closed impressively to finish a neck behind Exaggerator. He looks probable for the Withers back in NY on 1/30.
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12. Mo Tom (Uncle Mo) remains here in 12th here because he simply can’t be overlooked. He got a nice closing win in the Street Sense at Churchill for Thomas Amoss, then finished a head behind Mor Spirit and 2 lengths back to Airoforce for 3rd in the Ky Jockey Club G2 after closing from 12th. Recently he did his job as favorite by winning the Lecomte G3, as the only stakes winner in the field. In fact, only 2 other horses were stakes placed, and most of them maidens. Next start could be in the 2/20 Risen Star G2.
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Others not in the Dozen: .
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14. Awesome Speed (Awesome Again) won the Mucho Macho Man mile at Gulfstream on Jan.2 as the 3-5 favorite, beating fellow stakes winner Fellowship 5 non stakes winners, most of which you haven’t heard of. However, it was his second stakes win, which keeps him moving forward for Alan Goldberg. He should appear in the Holy Bull G3 on 1/30.
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15. Awesome Banner (Awesome of Course) won the Hutcheson G2 on the same day as Awesome Speed in the MMM. The impressive 4 length front running victory over 6f with a legit pace, earning the 3rd highest 3yo Beyer this year. This followed a whopping ten length win his first time out at Gulfstream in June, setting a new 4.5f track record. Foaled on Jan.14 2013, he’s actually a full three years old already. Stanley Gold may not have his eye on Roses, but keep an eye on him. Next likely the Swale G2 1/30.
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16. Discreetness (Discreet Cat) did win the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn on 1/18, which may have some ranking him. However, he beat no meaningful competition in the field where he was the only stakes winner. Given that was his second straight stakes win over nobody, so he’s doing better than some, and most importantly, he earned 10 Derby points for the race. Next start possibly Southwest 2/15.
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17. Epic Journey (JP’s Gusto) was bumped at the wire in the Pasco $100k at Tampa on 1/23, but tracked the leader 2 wide and dug in for a stretch duel. He didn’t catch Morning Fire, who set a pace only 1 click faster than the fillies’ $100k stakes in the prior race. He hasn’t had a fast pace to run at yet, but when he does, it could be a great setup for him. TBD.
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18. Let’s Meet In Rio (Flatter) closed nicely from 8th to finish 1.5 lengths back in the Sham G3 on 1/09to finish 2nd. Because of Pedigree and running style, this colt shows a lot more classic distance promise than Collected. My guess is he’ll stay in Cali for the time being and may even run against stablemate Mor Spirit in the Lewis on 2/6, but could also ship to the southeast.
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19. Collected (City Zip) beat no meaningful competition in the Sham G3 on 1/09, which was an unimpressive race altogether. Bob Baffert will have to run him against somebody besides the stablemate Let’s Meet In Rio, to really gauge his quality. He is scheduled for the Southwest 2/15, a race that Baffert owns.
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20. Morning Fire (Friesan Fire) took the Pasco $100k gate to wire over 7f at Tampa on 1/23. The pace may have not been that fast, as the closers finished far back. But he did hold off a late charge from Epic Journey who stayed about a length back the entire race. The rest of the field was 10 lengths or farther. He earned the 7th highest 3yo Beyer so far for the race, but in his prior two races he was beaten soundly in two similar races at Parx. TBD.
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21. Toews on Ice tried to hold on for dear life in his first route race before finally succumbing to stablemate Mor Spirit in the Los Al Futurity on 12/19, as Baffert went 1 and 2. The son of ArchArchArch, who was injured in the Kentucky Derby, won 3 straight dirt sprints before the loss. At Oaklawn in a paceless Smarty Jones on 1/18, he looked like he wanted nothing to do with the mile distance, fading to 6th and well beaten. Status TBD.
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