Weekend Winners Club

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Sunday, May 8, 2016
Churchill Downs
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There are plenty of armchair jockeys today and throughout the week that will say this jockey should have done that, etc. We’re not here to do that. I think most of them did pretty well under the circumstances, particularly the top 4.
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The other group of people we have is those that are starting the Triple Crown chants again. This inevitably happens just about every year, espeicially when a favorite wins.
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We will let you formulate that opinion on your later on down the page, but first let’s look at everything logically, including some history and statistics.
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Unfortunately, #13 Nyquist was not lucky enough to also get the 13th fastest time in Kentucky Derby history. Instead, it was 14th, just .04 seconds behind the 13th best time.
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This already puts him on an honored top 15 list that includes #1 Secretariat, Triple Crown winner Affirmed, and several others that won two Triple Crown Races. Others such as War Emblem, Funny Cide, Thunder Gulch, and the legendary Northern Dancer.
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The way in which he did it was very impressive also. He was right up behind a fast pace set by Danzing Candy, as was Gun Runner, but still had plenty in the tank for the stretch run. Here are some comparisons for the sake of stats.
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Horse	1/4 mile	1/2 mile	3/4 mil	mile	last 1/4	final time
Nyquist 1/4 mile splits:	22.7	23.6	24.5	24.8	25.66	2.01.31
American Pharoah’s 1/4s:	23.44	24.3	23.61	25.1	26.57	2.03.02
Secretariat’s 1/4 splits:	25.2	24	23.8	23.4	23	1.59.4
Monarchos 1/4 mile marks:	24.85	23.21	21.69	25.35	24.87	1.59.97

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(These are the actual winner’s splits, not the leader’s. It requires actual calculations, something foreign to other sites.)
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No, his final quarter mile will not compare favorably to Secretariat’s, but his first half and 3/4 do. Secretariat opened much slower and got progressively faster, one of few horses to ever to that in the Derby.
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We can look to Monarchos, who came from 16 lengths back to have the 2nd fastest Derby time ever, but he did things a bit differently. We have to trust that the documented beaten lengths are correct in the provided data.
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According to the calculations, he ran what could be the fastest quarter mile in Derby history with his 21.69 3rd quarter, closing from 16 lengths to just 2.5 behind the leader between the 1/2 and 3/4 mile marks.
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We already knew that the 2001 Kentucky Derby was important because Songandaprayer set the fastest opening 1/2 mile and 3/4 mile times in Derby history, in the 2nd fastest Derby of all time.
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Nyquist’s running style is much different from that of Monarchos, as he hung close to a fast pace early but still put up some solid fractions in the 2nd half of the race. Good enough to keep the lead once he got it.
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In this year’s run for the roses, the armchair jockeys’ most common questions are (in question and answer format):
Q: Why was Gun Runner up so close, moving too early?
A: He’s a early presser, and Florent was on a tear all weekend. He was comfortable with that pace, and it was natural.
Q: Why did Kent wait so late to move Exaggerator?
A: He did so in the Santa Anita, behind a similar pace, and dusted the field, as he did all but one in this field.
Q: Why didn’t they beat Nyquist?
A: Because they had no choice. He’s that good.
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So let’s get along with the Triple Crown Champion question. Why shouldn’t we consider it? His splits were all better than American Pharoah’s except for one, his final 1/4 was almost a full second faster, and his final time almost 2 seconds faster.
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Given, we have to factor in the speed of the track that day, in other words, the track variant, which is subjective in itself. But we have to trust the timer here. It was a fast Derby and the way it was won was impressive.

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Results:
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Pgm	Horse	Jockey	Win	Place	Show
13
Nyquist	Mario Gutierrez	6.60	4.80	3.60
11
Exaggerator	Kent J. Desormeaux		5.40	4.20
5
Gun Runner	Florent Geroux			6.00

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Wager Type	Winning Numbers	Payoff
$1 Pick 3	6-8-13 (3 correct)	453.00
$1 Pick 3	OAKS/WDFRD/DERBY 12-8-13 (3 correct)	294.90
$1 Pick 4	9-6-8-13/21/22 (4 correct)	11,447.60
$0.50 Pick 5	8-9-6-8-13/21/22 (5 correct)	24,152.45
$2 Pick 6 Jackpot	9-8-9-6-8-13/21/22 (5 correct)	9,038.60
$1 Daily Double	8-13	31.80
$1 Daily Double	OAKS/DERBY 12-13	29.40
$2 Exacta	13-11	30.60
$1 Superfecta	13-11-5-14	542.10
$1 Super High Five	13-11-5-14-2	5,794.50
$2 Trifecta	13-11-5	173.40

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Full 2016 Kentucky Derby Results Chart Here

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