Weekend Winners Club

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Thursday, May 2 2018. Churchill Downs. This analysis of sires and sirelines is back by popular demand on the similar article done last year, which ended up being a definitive article in winning the Kentucky Derby for most who read it.
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LIST OF HISTORICAL KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER SIRES AND SIRELINES HERE.
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2018 Kentucky Derby Championship Point Standings | Kentucky Derby 2018 Championship Series Races | Doug’s Derby Dozen
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Get the full 2018 Kentucky Derby Grid Here with over 80 different factors including pedigree, performance, and historical criteria!

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Today we’ll look at a brief analysis of the sires of this year’s Kentucky Derby. Judging the relevance of the sires in this race goes way beyond what the sires cost or even how many winners they have. For example, Storm Cat (RIP) was the most prolific, and at one time the most expensive sire in North America, for decades, and still has never had a Kentucky Derby winner from his sireline.
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This year, Storm Cat has the favorite, Justify (Scat Daddy, which stands for Storm Cat Daddy), who must also break the Apollo curse, and also be the only horse to win after only 3 lifetime races. Others from the fabled Storm Cat sireline are also in single digits: Audible and Mendelssohn, which would be the first to win after being unraced in the US.
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The brief graphic below shows you something more relevant: How the actual sires did in Triple Crown races and other major races during their own career. For the discussion, we’ll start with the most relevant sires and work down from there.
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1. CURLIN (Smart Strike, RAN) is one of the most successful young sires in North America and commands a heavy stud fee. The reason is that he is already from a successful sire line, and proved his worth on the track. He finished 3rd, 1st, and 2nd in his Triple Crown series, won the BC Classic and other Grade 1 races. He was horse of the year honors as a 3yo and older male, and is the quintessential Triple Crown sire. It is simply a matter of time before his sireline wins Triple Crown races. Or sweeps the top 3 spots in the Kentucky Derby, which is entirely possible this year.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 20
Progeny this year: GOOD MAGIC, VINO ROSSO, SOLOMINI

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Note: The RAN sireline is responsible for 14 of the last 25 Kentucky Derby champions, and typically has about 25% of the field. This year there are 4 and 1 alternate entry in the Derby field. The most recent Kentucky Derby win for the RAN sireline was in 2017 with Always Dreaming.
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2. MEDAGLIA D’ORO (El Prado, ND) was one of the best classic race horses of his time. Having bad luck in the Kentucky Derby, he got roughed up early and taken off of his early speed game, but decided to participate anyway and wound up 4th. He didn’t care for the Preakness but came back to get beat by a head by the improbable 70-1 Sarava in the Belmont. He finished 1st or 2nd in 10 races thereafter, all G1 and G2 races of 9-10 furlongs, and was unbeatable at 9f to the point where nobody wanted to run against him.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 4
Progeny this year: BOLT D’ORO, ENTICED

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3. CREATIVE CAUSE (Giant’s Causeway, SC) lived up to the Storm Cat sireline to some extent with a 5th place Kentucky Derby, 3rd place Preakness, and several other stakes wins. Giant’s Causeway was of course a multiple G1 winner in Europe but is best known for finishing 2nd in Tiznow’s first of 2 BC Classic wins.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 0 (4 by ND other lines)
Progeny this year: MY BOY JACK
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4. SCAT DADDY (Johannesburg, SC) from the Hennessy division of the prolific Storm Cat sireline, was one of the most promising 2yo’s ever after a win in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. He struggled in the Kentucky Derby and wound up 18th, then retired with an injury. He has yet to sire anyone of note in a Triple Crown Race.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 0 (4 by ND other lines)
Progeny this year: JUSTIFY, MENDELSSOHN, FLAMEAWAY, COMBATANT
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5. MALIBU MOON (AP Indy, BR) is a top 5 North American sire, who finally proved he was a direct descendant of AP Indy by spawning Kentucky Derby champion Orb a few years ago. He did nothing on the race track and was retired early, however clearly still has some great TC genes.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 10
Progeny this year: MAGNUM MOON
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6. SHACKLEFORD (Forestry, SC) from the Storm Cat sireline is probably the most overlooked sire of the decade. He was a front runner who managed 4th in the Derby and 5th in Belmont, and in between won the Preakness. After that he was competitive in winning the Clark and Met Mile and placing in a slew of other graded stakes. His progeny however has yet to make noise in the Triple Crown.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 0 (4 by ND other lines)
Progeny this year: PROMISES FULFILLED
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7. UNION RAGS (Dixie Union, ND) finished 7th in the Kentucky Derby, then redeemed himself by winning the Belmont Stakes after the withdrawal of Derby and Preakness winner I’ll Have Another.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 4
Progeny this year: FREE DROP BILLY
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8. TAPIT (Pulpit, API) was one of the most overrated TC horses ever, being hyped up greatly before finishing 9th in the Derby after winning the Wood. He has been a successful sire thus far, commanding huge prices, and finally put himself on the Triple Crown map in 2017 with Belmont winner Tapwrit.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 10
Progeny this year: HOFBURG
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9. AWESOME AGAIN (Deputiy Minister, ND) was another great race horse of his time. He skipped the Triple Crown while winning the Queen’s Plate in Canada and coming back to win the Jim Dandy. The next year he became unbeatable, rattling off 5 graded stakes wins including the Breeders Cup Classic, his second win over the great Silver Charm that year. Still not a great Triple Crown sire for whatever reason.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 10
Progeny this year: BRAVAZO
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10. TAKE CHARGE INDY (AP Indy, BR) has been a successful sire but his Triple Crown prowess is questionable. He did win the Florida Derby but ended up 19th in the Kentucky Derby. He went on to win 1 of 7 remaining career stakes races, the Alysheba. This year is his second crop.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 10
Progeny this year: NOBLE INDY
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11. INTO MISCHIEF (Harlan’s Holiday, SC) was successful as a 2yo in winning some futurities. His sire Harlan’s Holiday was favored in the Kentucky Derby but finished 7th, and then 4th to War Emblem in the Preakness, and later won the Penn Derby and G1 Donn Handicap. His progeny have yet to impress in the TC.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 0 (4 by ND other lines)
Progeny this year: AUDIBLE
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12. POSEIDON’S WARRIOR (Speightstown, RAN) didn’t do a lot on the track in terms of classic racing. He was a competitive sprinter who won the Vanderbilt G1 as a 4yo. He has a good pedigree.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 20
Progeny this year: FIRENZE FIRE.
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13. MAJESTIC WARRIOR (AP INDY, BR) was not very successful on the track, having won the Hopeful as a 2yo, and then failing to compete on the Triple Crown trail. He has yet to establish any classic relevance.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 10
Progeny this year: LONE SAILOR
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14. ARCH (Kris S, TTO) is from the Hail to Reason division of the Turn To sireline, which has had some success in the Triple Crown, but the sire himself had no Triple Crown record, and is best known as a good turf sire, like Kris S. He did win the Louisiana Super Derby which was run in September.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 5
Progeny this year: INSTILLED REGARD
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PROUD CITIZEN (Gone West, RAN) didn’t win any Triple Crown races, and in fact won only 1 career race, the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland to qualify for the Kentucky Derby, in which he finished 2nd after following a moderate pace set by War Emblem. He got 3rd in the Preakness and 5th in the Belmont. His progeny have much to prove.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 20
Progeny this year: BLENDED CITIZEN (AE) (sireline ranked 4th if he draws into the Derby)
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